ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

Good morning everyone
I am following all the updates and comments.
Thank you
St Maarten people are taking this seriously. Lots of ply wood being sold.
FYI, Tuesday September 5th is the 22nd anniversary of when Hurricane Luis destroyed our little island.

Thinking of you, Barbara. Late this afternoon, someone told me they'd spoken on the phone earlier in the afternoon, to a friend who lives in St Kitts. The friend said that with memories of Hugo in the minds of most Kittitians, they're taking the situation very seriously there too. (Of course, the track Hugo took was far worse than the currently projected one of Irma.)

As to Hurricane Luis, I can vividly recall that monster sending massive swells to normally placid beaches here in Barbados.

Thanks Abajan. Yes, I am sure St Kttts remembers Hugo just like we remember Luis.
And I remember Hugo too. Even though St Kitts is only about 60 miles away, they got hit much harder by Hugo than we did.
and it seems each advisory puts Irma a little bit closer to us

[TexasF6]

Morning met for WPB news just said the reliable model keeps Cat 4/5 Irma just E of SFL by a hundred miles or so and with a big smile says "Looks like good news for Florida"

Who said this? Highly irresponsible. And dangerous. PM me if you don't want to say aloud.

[msbee]

I am not liking at all the southern trend of the guidance and the system.Puerto Rico surely will get impacts from Irma in the form of Tropical Storm force winds along with copius rains that can cause massive flooding.That is assuming the 5 AM forecast track verifies.Any adjustment more south will mean much more impacts with Hurricane force winds reaching the island.People here since Saturday have been jamming the supermarkets,Depot stores etc getting all they need if the worst case scenario comes.But I can tell you that the power grids here are not very good so we can expect blackouts that may last days depending how severe it turns out.Let's see how all unfolds in the next couple of days to really know what Puerto Rico will face.

I hope all the friends in the Leewards,BVI and U.S Virgin Islands are preparing and hoping for the best.

I m not liking this either, Luis. Hoping we will all be safe

[xironman]

Interested due to all of the hype. GFS has a sub -900 mb hurricane into the carolinas? Come on GFS, it's not the WPAC!.

Not saying the GFS is correct, but the West Atlantic is on fire this year

[northjaxpro]

Good morning Ms Bee!!

I am sure you are up to date with the latest on Irma and doing your preparations.

It is looking quite concerning for me that the models do indeed want to bring Irma uncomfortably close to you all down in the islands. I am hoping for the best for all you down there, along with Gusty wind and Cycloneye. Thanks for checking in and keeping us informed Ms Bee!! Take care!

[KWT]

Interested due to all of the hype. GFS has a sub -900 mb hurricane into the carolinas? Come on GFS, it's not the WPAC!.

Yep its going to get HUGE attention soon, especially because Harvey has caught the publics mind. I remember in 2004/2005 the storms got huge attention (even here in the UK!) as there was a succession of storms hitting USA in that time period.

Also, does anyone know how far west this needs to be to begin to get rapid scan updates of Irma like we had with Harvey?

GOES-16 Mesoscale-2 @ 1min intervals right now...

Slider:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Epic, thank you very much!

xironman, bare in mind that Irma has is a major hurricane in the near dark blue waters in that map you've put up. Pretty much from this point onwards the heat potenial explodes and with it the possiblity that this hurricane really explodes in power. Think its quite likely that its going to be a 4 before too long, especially as the core is relatively intact at the moment.

[Gustywind]

I am not liking at all the southern trend of the guidance and the system.Puerto Rico surely will get impacts from Irma in the form of Tropical Storm force winds along with copius rains that can cause massive flooding.That is assuming the 5 AM forecast track verifies.Any adjustment more south will mean much more impacts with Hurricane force winds reaching the island.People here since Saturday have been jamming the supermarkets,Depot stores etc getting all they need if the worst case scenario comes.But I can tell you that the power grids here are not very good so we can expect blackouts that may last days depending how severe it turns out.Let's see how all unfolds in the next couple of days to really know what Puerto Rico will face.

I hope all the friends in the Leewards,BVI and U.S Virgin Islands are preparing and hoping for the best.

You're right Luis, me too in Guadeloupe i do not like that southern trend! We deal with the same troubles with the supermarkets, etc since Thursday. Today mark the first yellow vigilance cyclone for Guadeloupe and even the Northern Leewards! We should not let our guard down for sure, the wsw and sw make all of us nervous in the Leewards as you in PR that may have implications on the final path.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

[msbee]

Good morning
the latest 5 AM advisory brings Irma even closer to those of us in St Maarten and the nearby islands.
Our infrastructure is weak at best and the impact from Irma could seriously cripple us.
I am hoping for the best though.
People on the island are very alert and are busily preparing. The last I heard was that generators and ply wood are sold out all over the island.
The supermarkets were crazy yesterday.
I use a little tool at http://www.stormcarib.com/
How close can it get? http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm
According to the 5AM advisory,
"Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 49.1 miles (79.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 6 hours and 9 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 2:54PM AST)."
Too close for comfort.
Gad to hear PR and Gwada are preparing, Gusty and Luis.
Barbara

[Extratropical94]

11L IRMA 170903 1200 17.8N 47.9W ATL 100 969

Best track is at 100 knots as of 12Z, down to 17.8°N.

06Z BT was at 18.2°N, the 09Z advisory has Irma at 18.0°N.

[pgoss11]

Regardless of whether you are in the exact landfall area, this storm will have long distance effects if it continues to grow in size as forecasted. Now is the time everyone should have all their family plans in place including what to do with your pets. From tropical storm force conditions to major hurricane conditions and tornadoes, millions will be affected in some way from Irma. Even inland areas will be affected with some of these conditions. My first thought are for those in the islands. Praying for you all to be safe.

[Gustywind]

Good morning
the latest 5 AM advisory brings Irma even closer to those of us in St Maarten and the nearby islands.
Our infrastructure is weak at best and the impact from Irma could seriously cripple us.
I am hoping for the best though.
People on the island are very alert and are busily preparing. The last I heard was that generators and ply wood are sold out all over the island.
The supermarkets were crazy yesterday.
I use a little tool at http://www.stormcarib.com/
How close can it get? http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm
According to the 5AM advisory,
"Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 49.1 miles (79.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 6 hours and 9 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 2:54PM AST)."
Too close for comfort.
Gad to hear PR and Gwada are preparing, Gusty and Luis.
Barbara

Yeah thanks a lot Barbara i appreciate your thoughts and all the infos you can bring to us ! Yes looks like IRMA is becoming more menacing given the latest forecast. We continue preparations too in Guadeloupe, we should pay very attention and be on our guard too. Luis, Barbara, we stay connected and be aware!

[Gustywind]

Good morning Ms Bee!!

I am sure you are up to date with the latest on Irma and doing your preparations.

It is looking quite concerning for me that the models do indeed want to bring Irma uncomfortably close to you all down in the islands. I am hoping for the best for all you down there, along with Gusty wind and Cycloneye. Thanks for checking in and keeping us informed Ms Bee!! Take care!

Great post, i appreciate my friend . I will keep your informed and all the US friends.

[KWT]

11L IRMA 170903 1200 17.8N 47.9W ATL 100 969

Best track is at 100 knots as of 12Z, down to 17.8°N.

06Z BT was at 18.2°N, the 09Z advisory has Irma at 18.0°N.

Yep still diving WSW at a solid rate. This dive really is key to knowing how big the risk is going to be the NE Caribbean and PR/Hispaniola. Need to hope it bottoms out sooner rather than later. Any slightly delay in gaining latitude.

Also looking at the 1 min loop, the eyewall is looking decent at the moment, especially on the eastern side, popping nicely.

[wxman57]

Irma remains a small storm today. Hurricane-force winds only extend out 10-15 miles to the south of the center. Without land interaction, it's hard for a hurricane to grow in size significantly very quickly. By the time the center passes the NE Caribbean, the hurricane-force winds may extend out 20-25 miles south of the center - still relatively small. Tropical storm-force winds may extend out 100 miles or so to the south of the storm as it passes the islands, which is far enough to reach them. Our forecast has 39mph winds reaching San Juan around 8pm Wednesday, but just barely grazing northern PR. The northern Leeward Islands west to the BVI are grazed by the 58mph winds earlier on Wednesday. Of course, any slight deviation south would put the hurricane-force winds into those islands. Note that the strongest winds will be on the north side of the storm.

Looking at the overnight ensembles, it's not looking good for the East U.S. Coast on September 11th. Prime target appears to be the Carolinas north to NY. Florida isn't out of the picture, of course, but chances of an impact there are lower than farther north.

[northjaxpro]

I wonder if it will be remembered if those storms actually hit the Caribbean or Mexicoand thus less media.

Certainly the ones that hit the states, particularly big cities are remember more, some I suspect Harvey will stick around a long time due to Houston.

However I know that if Irma does hit any of the Caribbean Islands it will get lots of attention on this forum. I'm confident this will be the first hurricane to reach 1000 pages combined (IE, model thread, recon and also this thread.). Matthew came close but just missed out by something like 12 pages. Thats a sure firer way to gauge interest in a storm!

I have been a member of Storm2K for 7 years now, since 2010. I can 100% assure to all guests who are coming on this site that we absolutely give all due attention to our friends and neighbors down across the Caribbean and the Greater Antilles. We have several Storm2K members who live down across the Caribbean, and one of our esteemed Storm2K moderators, Cycloneye, who lives in Puerto Rico.

Any time we.have any severe happenings down.in that pregion of the world, we at Storm2K do our very best to keep everyone up to date with what is happening down there.This applies to all type of natural disasters, not just hurricanes.

I found this site back in 2010 and saw how wonderful a forum this is for all professional weather experts and weather enthusiasts alike. I know there are many great people on this site who have so much vast knowledge and experience on here, including excellent amateurs as well!! It is a great forum to spend on my free time I have from my very busy schedule, and one I am happy of being a long time.member of for now about seven years! Storm2K for me is the best place on the internet for discussing all things weather, especially in times like these when we are tracking tropical cyclones!! Be safe everyone!!

[Ken711]

Irma remains a small storm today. Hurricane-force winds only extend out 10-15 miles to the south of the center. Without land interaction, it's hard for a hurricane to grow in size significantly very quickly. By the time the center passes the NE Caribbean, the hurricane-force winds may extend out 20-25 miles south of the center - still relatively small. Tropical storm-force winds may extend out 100 miles or so to the south of the storm as it passes the islands, which is far enough to reach them. Our forecast has 39mph winds reaching San Juan around 8pm Wednesday, but just barely grazing northern PR. The northern Leeward Islands west to the BVI are grazed by the 58mph winds earlier on Wednesday. Of course, any slight deviation south would put the hurricane-force winds into those islands. Note that the strongest winds will be on the north side of the storm.

Looking at the overnight ensembles, it's not looking good for the East U.S. Coast on September 11th. Prime target appears to be the Carolinas north to NY. Florida isn't out of the picture, of course, but chances of an impact there are lower than farther north.

Do you see it going that far north from NC/VA? I thought the blocking ridge was forecasted to be too strong and would force it inland below the Delmarva.

[Blown Away]

All hurricanes passing within 65 miles of the NHC's 5am 5 day position of 22.5N/71.5W...

[LarryWx]

This post is going to concentrate on CONUS landfall chances. This by no means is meant to ignore the clearly increasing hit chances for the NE Caribbean, which means members including msbee, Gustywind, and Luis, who all already know that their chances of being hit are rising. Sorry if I left off other regular posters from that area! Also, the risk to Bahamas members is clearly continuing to rise.

Considering the 0Z/6Z model run consensus as well as trends since yesterday and despite it still being a whopping 2K+ miles away and ~7-9 days out from a potential hit, I'm significantly increasing the chance in my mind for a CONUS hit from 25% to 50%. The trends are undeniably consistent now. In considering this, I think the chances for a NE and Mid-Atlantic US hit are actually falling but the chances for a SE US hit are solidly rising. The chances for a FL hit and even a Gulf coast hit (either with or without a FL hit) are going up quite a bit vs how they were looking yesterday. Much of this increased FL/Gulf chance is assuming the model trends will trend even further SW in coming days from where they already are. Sorry, GOMers and Floridians, please don't shoot the messenger!

I won't yet go above 50% due to it still being so far away in terms of distance and timing and keeping in mind that the ingestion of NOAA G-IV as well as recon data could conceivably lead to a significant trend change of its own in a different, perhaps less threatening, direction. But if that data were to result in a continuation of the current trends, I'd then likely raise chances in my mind to well over 50%. But there already being a 50% CONUS chance hit rate for a TC as far away in time and distance as it still is is quite high considering all of the possibilities, especially typical recurve chances east of the CONUS from where it currently is.

[Ken711]

This post is going to concentrate on CONUS landfall chances. This by no means is meant to ignore the clearly increasing hit chances for the NE Caribbean, which means members including msbee, Gustywind, and Luis, who all already know that their chances of being hit are rising. Sorry if I left off other regular posters from that area! Also, the risk to Bahamas members is clearly continuing to rise.

Considering the 0Z/6Z model run consensus as well as trends since yesterday and despite it still being a whopping 2K+ miles away and ~7-9 days out from a potential hit, I'm significantly increasing the chance in my mind for a CONUS hit from 25% to 50%. The trends are undeniably consistent now. In considering this, I think the chances for a NE and Mid-Atlantic US hit are actually falling but the chances for a SE US hit are solidly rising. The chances for a FL hit and even a Gulf coast hit (either with or without a FL hit) are going up quite a bit vs how they were looking yesterday. Much of this increased FL/Gulf chance is assuming the model trends will trend even further SW in coming days from where they already are. Sorry, GOMers and Floridians, please don't shoot the messenger!

I won't yet go above 50% due to it still being so far away in terms of distance and timing and keeping in mind that the ingestion of NOAA G-IV as well as recon data could conceivably lead to a significant trend change of its own in a different, perhaps less threatening, direction. But if that data were to result in a continuation of the current trends, I'd then likely raise chances in my mind to well over 50%. But there already being a 50% CONUS chance hit rate for a TC as far away in time and distance as it still is is quite high considering all of the possibilities, especially typical recurve chances east of the CONUS from where it currently is.

Larry can you provide your reasoning for this. I'm still thinking it will landfall Outer Banks to Virginia Beach.

[robbielyn]

This is becoming less likely to become a Cat 5. It's one ERC after another like Katy Perry's Hot N Cold

i love that song!