ATL: IRMA - Models

[txwatcher91]

Interesting that on day 6 the Euro and UK agree almost exactly on location, ridge strength, troughing, and the weakness. This looks like a close miss for FL and a NC or SC risk to me similar to Floyd.

UK day 6


Euro day 6

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Reality of the spread atm ATCF

[USTropics]

Update
Forecast track of best performing models.
5-Days out, average error about 65 miles.

If that model accuracy holds true for the next 120, hopefully Irma should pass well East of Florida. We'll see

well, if that's the case, I hope it would recurve OTS and not slam into the mid Atlantic or NE. especially since our buildings weren't built to withstand something this disastrous. Maybe in the areas where sandy devastated previously, they are a little more prepared, but god forbid a cat 3 or above hit like Connecticut or RI, they'd be like off the map. (Note, not saying it will or predicting it, just stating opinion)

Anyone have any tips and the websites (besides noaa.nhc.gov I know that one fairly well) to staying on top of things? I kinda have to rely on you guys, cuz I don't know where to find the models and tracks. I stumbled across one website at one point but was really hard to understand and now I can't even remember what it is. I'm just trying to stay on top of things so I can warn my family if need be. I'm in Shelton, CT, so I'm pretty close to the Long Island sound.

Wxman57 has some great links on his website:
http://wxman57.com/hurricane.html

If you want to look at specific model runs, Tropical Tidbits is really good:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

For spaghetti plots, this is a pretty good link:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Edit (a couple more good ones for general information):
https://stormpulse.com/
http://hurricanetrack.com/

[robbielyn]

Update
Forecast track of best performing models.
5-Days out, average error about 65 miles.

If that model accuracy holds true for the next 120, hopefully Irma should pass well East of Florida. We'll see

well, if that's the case, I hope it would recurve OTS and not slam into the mid Atlantic or NE. especially since our buildings weren't built to withstand something this disastrous. Maybe in the areas where sandy devastated previously, they are a little more prepared, but god forbid a cat 3 or above hit like Connecticut or RI, they'd be like off the map. (Note, not saying it will or predicting it, just stating

Anyone have any tips and the websites (besides noaa.nhc.gov I know that one fairly well) to staying on top of things? I kinda have to rely on you guys, cuz I don't know where to find the models and tracks. I stumbled across one website at one point but was really hard to understand and now I can't even remember what it is. I'm just trying to stay on top of things so I can warn my family if need be. I'm in Shelton, CT, so I'm pretty close to the Long Island sound.

ftp://ftp.sfwmd.gov/pub/wx/plots/storm_11.gif for spaghetti plots and tropicaltidbits.com hit models link.

[Spacecoast]

Weaker side of the storm, and so far it looks like it will move far enough away.

also the storm is still pretty small at that time, right?

Hard to say, still seems to vary run to run. It's still beyond 5 days and nothing is set in stone.

Ok Thanks..... but that brings up the question... How accurate has the NHC been historically for 5 day wind speed probability... It seems they should be taking a lot of the above factors into consideration, No?

[forecasterjack]

If that model accuracy holds true for the next 120, hopefully Irma should pass well East of Florida. We'll see

well, if that's the case, I hope it would recurve OTS and not slam into the mid Atlantic or NE. especially since our buildings weren't built to withstand something this disastrous. Maybe in the areas where sandy devastated previously, they are a little more prepared, but god forbid a cat 3 or above hit like Connecticut or RI, they'd be like off the map. (Note, not saying it will or predicting it, just stating opinion)

Anyone have any tips and the websites (besides noaa.nhc.gov I know that one fairly well) to staying on top of things? I kinda have to rely on you guys, cuz I don't know where to find the models and tracks. I stumbled across one website at one point but was really hard to understand and now I can't even remember what it is. I'm just trying to stay on top of things so I can warn my family if need be. I'm in Shelton, CT, so I'm pretty close to the Long Island sound.

Wxman57 has some great links on his website:
http://wxman57.com/hurricane.html

If you want to look at specific model runs, Tropical Tidbits is really good:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

For spaghetti plots, this is a pretty good link:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Edit (a couple more good ones for general information):
https://stormpulse.com/
http://hurricanetrack.com/

I know I'm bad, but I gotta throw in a link to the site I work for https://weather.us/model-charts/euro you can look at high res ECMWF data for free that you can't find anywhere else. Share and post as you please! Navigate to different areas/parameters/forecast hours via the menus to the left of the image

[KWT]

Reality of the spread atm ATCF

Yeah plenty of spread still, especially past day-5 when timings of the upper trough become super important in terms of the track and how quickly and what exact angle in takes that northern turn (IF) it does.

So still got a spread from S.Florida to OTS still, though there is increasing confidence of a US east coast strike, somewhere along the coast...

[Blown Away]

12z... Subtle W shifts late...

[txwatcher91]

UKMET day 6, turning NW in the same spot as Euro. Good agreement.

[GeneratorPower]

HurricaneTrack, all your base are belong to Irma. At least it saves on gas money. Still not done with trending though.

[USTropics]

also the storm is still pretty small at that time, right?

Hard to say, still seems to vary run to run. It's still beyond 5 days and nothing is set in stone.

Ok Thanks..... but that brings up the question... How accurate has the NHC been historically for 5 day wind speed probability... It seems they should be taking a lot of the above factors into consideration, No?

I only have data for 72 hours for the NHC, but their forecasts have been very accurate:

[YoshiMike]

Thanks for all the links guys!!! I'm gonna bookmark them now really appreciate it.

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/904313292444852224

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904312876084711424

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems NC is under the gun on the models. How accurate could that be this far out?

[clipper35]

All this model hype is getting everyone jacked. We need to remember these model runs are concerning and worrisome but nhc recon and Gulf Stream data will give better data to all global models. As far as one location being looked at as a hit, no everyone from the gulf coast to Newfoundland to ots is probable, if you look at the big global pic it looks like there is a strong trough getting ready to settle out of central Canada by weeks end and if that trough is strong enough we no what that can do. Remember we don't have enough data on ridges and troughs that are in Canada. We have to wait for proper sampling of the atmosphere.

[SouthDadeFish]

The 00Z EC ensembles made a shift to the west in the medium range. Many potential solutions still exist! The only thing you can do at this time is be prepared. There is still a chance Irma recurves out to sea, but sadly, the possibility of that happening appears to be decreasing.

[gatorcane]

UKMET is moving WNW at end not NW:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo

[Ken711]

Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo

I've been thinking Isabel and still sticking with that.