ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

This is becoming less likely to become a Cat 5. It's one ERC after another like Katy Perry's Hot N Cold

i love that song!

But it's heading for warmer waters in the next few days.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/904287282257166337

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Larry, I agree with you that the probabilities of a landfall toward the Southeast U.S. have unfortunately increased significantly for the past 24-36 hours given the alarming south and southwest shifts of the model guidance since yesterday morning.

All I can say is all interests across the region and in the projected path of Irma should be doing every thing possible to prepare NOW!! We have just over a week from now here in the United States to do preps, but less time of course for our neighbors down in the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. Time is very precious now in advance of this monster storm. Please folks, do not waste time in prepping for Irma!

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1145 UTC 17.7N 47.8W T5.0/5.5 IRMA

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm in Mt Pleasant SC for the next month helping out my sister who has been ill. This is her first hurricane season, and the last thing we need is a hurricane. That said, I have started my preparations here as far as getting supplies (which I did yesterday), and Monday or Tues. if a landfall here starts to look likely I will go to Atlanta, and get my generator and bring it here. The ghost of Hugo is still alive and well in this part of the world

[knotimpaired]

Good morning
the latest 5 AM advisory brings Irma even closer to those of us in St Maarten and the nearby islands.
Our infrastructure is weak at best and the impact from Irma could seriously cripple us.
I am hoping for the best though.
People on the island are very alert and are busily preparing. The last I heard was that generators and ply wood are sold out all over the island.
The supermarkets were crazy yesterday.
I use a little tool at http://www.stormcarib.com/
How close can it get? http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm
According to the 5AM advisory,
"Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 49.1 miles (79.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 6 hours and 9 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 2:54PM AST)."
Too close for comfort.
Gad to hear PR and Gwada are preparing, Gusty and Luis.
Barbara

We are currently 103 miles away

[LarryWx]

This post is going to concentrate on CONUS landfall chances. This by no means is meant to ignore the clearly increasing hit chances for the NE Caribbean, which means members including msbee, Gustywind, and Luis, who all already know that their chances of being hit are rising. Sorry if I left off other regular posters from that area! Also, the risk to Bahamas members is clearly continuing to rise.

Considering the 0Z/6Z model run consensus as well as trends since yesterday and despite it still being a whopping 2K+ miles away and ~7-9 days out from a potential hit, I'm significantly increasing the chance in my mind for a CONUS hit from 25% to 50%. The trends are undeniably consistent now. In considering this, I think the chances for a NE and Mid-Atlantic US hit are actually falling but the chances for a SE US hit are solidly rising. The chances for a FL hit and even a Gulf coast hit (either with or without a FL hit) are going up quite a bit vs how they were looking yesterday. Much of this increased FL/Gulf chance is assuming the model trends will trend even further SW in coming days from where they already are. Sorry, GOMers and Floridians, please don't shoot the messenger!

I won't yet go above 50% due to it still being so far away in terms of distance and timing and keeping in mind that the ingestion of NOAA G-IV as well as recon data could conceivably lead to a significant trend change of its own in a different, perhaps less threatening, direction. But if that data were to result in a continuation of the current trends, I'd then likely raise chances in my mind to well over 50%. But there already being a 50% CONUS chance hit rate for a TC as far away in time and distance as it still is is quite high considering all of the possibilities, especially typical recurve chances east of the CONUS from where it currently is.

Larry can you provide your reasoning for this. I'm still thinking it will landfall Outer Banks to Virginia Beach.

Hi Ken,
People in the Outer Banks and VA are still obviously at risk for a landfall. So, those folks absolutely need to continue preparing for the possibility. However, the model consensus, which had been focusing somewhat more on NC and further north landfalls yesterday, has had a noticeable SW shift to also include the SE US today. Also, with this SW trend still continuing, further SW shifts are quite possible and even anticipated as of now. That's why I feel that even the Gulf coast folks now need to keep a watchful eye, unfortunately, in case SW trends continue.

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah Larry, I agree with you that the probabilities of a landfall toward the Southeast U.S. have unfortunately increased significantly for the past 24-36 hours given the alarming south and southwest shifts of the model guidance since yesterday morning.

All I can say is all interests across the region and in the projected path of Irma should be doing every thing possible to prepare NOW!! We have just over a week from now here in the United States to do preps, but less time of course for our neighbors down in the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. Time is very precious now in advance of this monster storm. Please folks, do not waste time in prepping for Irma!

Three days ago I filled up our gas cans and extended fuel supply and did other preps. It is so much better feeeling prepared than worrying. Get ready!

[Gustywind]

Good morning
the latest 5 AM advisory brings Irma even closer to those of us in St Maarten and the nearby islands.
Our infrastructure is weak at best and the impact from Irma could seriously cripple us.
I am hoping for the best though.
People on the island are very alert and are busily preparing. The last I heard was that generators and ply wood are sold out all over the island.
The supermarkets were crazy yesterday.
I use a little tool at http://www.stormcarib.com/
How close can it get? http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm
According to the 5AM advisory,
"Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 49.1 miles (79.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 6 hours and 9 minutes from now (Wednesday, September 6 at 2:54PM AST)."
Too close for comfort.
Gad to hear PR and Gwada are preparing, Gusty and Luis.
Barbara

We are currently 103 miles away

Waouw that's not close for any comfort my friend . Do not panic make préparations, and the best is to stay tuned

[robbielyn]

Unless it manages to go south and west enough to snake around the islands and into the G .... Naw, we don't want to think about that.

naw we don't! i live on the gulf side of fl north of tampa. please stay and leave on the atlantic irma!

[SouthDadeFish]

Here's a wide-view visible shot for perspective:



It's an ominous sight right now, with Irma the only game in town at the moment.

[forecasterjack]

This beautiful cyclone in the GOA is a product of the RWT created by Sanvu. That same RWT will help drive development of blocking over North America as Irma approaches. Dangerous synoptic/general setup/pattern, regardless of any one OP run that has pretty colors over *insert big city here*. Looped satellite: https://weather.us/satellite/1679-w-529 ... .html#play

[gatorcane]

It does appear Florida is definitely more at risk with the model trends the last 24 hours. Hope the west trends will stop. We know they can move more from here this far out. Ike and Matthew are good examples. I remember the models kept wanting to recurve Ike before reaching Florida and look what happened. Watching closely here in South Florida.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Gustywind]

It does appear Florida is definitely more at risk with the model trends the last 24 hours. Hope the west trends will stop. We know they can move more from here this far out. Ike and Matthew are good examples. I remember the models kept wanting to recurve Ike before reaching Florida and look what happened. Watching closely here in South Florida.

Hi Gatorcane, what are your latest on IRMA for the Lesser Antilles? Any guess? We all know that you have great input.
Regards.
Gustywind

[forecasterjack]

She's plugging along. Dry air appears to be having an effect on the system. Doesn't look like it's in the inner eyewall, but certainly seeing cloud tops warm at the edge of the CDO. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/503-w-160- ... .html#play

[Alyono]

the only good news is Irma refuses to intensify. Looks to have weakened significantly this morning on satellite imagery. Recon may find a weaker system. Still some undercutting shear

[Alyono]

They are obviously taking it very seriously if they are flying out to 49W to catch this system, thats pretty far east for recon to go.

normal for NOAA since their forward base has always been Barbados. I've seen them fly as far east as 40W

[NDG]

East coast of FL's waters will not be this calm as this morning next weekend, Irma will be generating some big swells which will be arriving well ahead of it getting to the area of the Bahamas.

[Jimsot]

Good morning Ms Bee!!

I am sure you are up to date with the latest on Irma and doing your preparations.

It is looking quite concerning for me that the models do indeed want to bring Irma uncomfortably close to you all down in the islands. I am hoping for the best for all you down there, along with Gusty wind and Cycloneye. Thanks for checking in and keeping us informed Ms Bee!! Take care!

I know I have had discussions with all of you in the past when I lived on Anguilla. After ten years we are back in US in the upstate of SC. If the NHC nudges a little more at 11:00AM, it is time to be really concerned. All of our friends in Anguilla being of the Caribbean mindset have been making all their preparations and won't be surprised. Now down the road will Irma visit us in SC?