ATL: IRMA - Models

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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4121 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:12 am

GFS shows dry air mixing out by the D2-D3 range...strengthening begins after that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4122 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

HR150 - 883mb off the FL coast...could you imagine?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4123 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

toad strangler wrote:Slowing down @144 ..... ready for the more N component?


The slow down in the Bahamas has been shown the last few runs and is concerning. At this range any slight nudge left brings it on the coast. The slowdown could allow the ridge to build back in as well.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4124 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

@45 miles SW of 06z @150hrs...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4125 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

well the pucker pressure in FL should be off the charts at H150... :double:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4126 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

Crawling WNW through 150 hours, decently SW of last run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4127 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:144

Image

Definitely a SW shift from last run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4128 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

If it scrapes the coast like Matthew, wouldn't reduce intensity?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4129 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:13 am

At 150 look like she made the turn towards the Carolina's
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4130 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:14 am

Ken711 wrote:If it scrapes the coast like Matthew, wouldn't reduce intensity?



Matthew more than scraped the FL coast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4131 Postby rockyman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:14 am

The Bermuda high is nosing back to the west at 150 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4132 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:15 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Slowing down @144 ..... ready for the more N component?


The slow down in the Bahamas has been shown the last few runs and is concerning. At this range any slight nudge left brings it on the coast. The slowdown could allow the ridge to build back in as well.

Exactly.. ..This is very concerning for S Fl. Well put!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4133 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:15 am

TREND...This is the most SW it has been over the past 4 runs of the GFS

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4134 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:16 am

The ridge appears to be a tad stronger than the previous run at 156 hrs, and a deeper pressure for Irma as well
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4135 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:16 am

toad strangler wrote:At 150 look like she made the turn towards the Carolina's

NW at 156...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4136 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:16 am

toad strangler wrote:At 150 look like she made the turn towards the Carolina's


Still looks NW to me toward FL.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4137 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:16 am

It's definitely doing the WNW stairstepping between 120 hrs and 156 hrs. Unbelievable how large the wind field is. Tropical storm force conditions up the entire east coast of Florida if it was to play out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4138 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:18 am

That's called staring down the barrel of a loaded 12 gauge...

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4139 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:19 am

Due N @ 168
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4140 Postby JaxGator » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:19 am

All of the Florida east coast would be affected if Irma got that close.
Last edited by JaxGator on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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