ATL: IRMA - Models

[toad strangler]

CMC...Over my house!!!

Over my house too lol ... I'm in St. Lucie West. But, this IS the CMC

[AdamFirst]

CMC...Over my house!!!

Last night's Canadian showed a landfall in Jupiter/Tequesta...so we got an east shift in the Canadian!

[toad strangler]

UKIE anybody?

[KWT]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

It depends on alot of factors but obviously north of a minimal 5.

Once again to reiterate, the WPAC sees this happen all the time where the models blow up storms down to 890/880mbs and in truth they rarely go that powerful. I suspect the GFS is doing the same, even if the set-up aloft does turn out to be exceptional.

[jlauderdal]

Afternoon tea euro run could ratchet up the anxiety level fl to nc...these trends are completely in line with nhc thinking on the left...YIKES

Its one thing to have a system.with the shredder, shear, tutt, etc..its another to have irma with nothing in its way

[WeatherEmperor]

UKIE anybody?

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[pgoss11]

It seems for several runs now, even with the SW trends landfall still seems to end up on the NC/SC border. Shouldn't landfall be moving south with all the SW changes?

[KWT]

Afternoon tea euro run could ratchet up the anxiety level fl to nc...these trends are completely in line with nhc thinking on the left...YIKES

Its one thing to have a system.with the shredder, shear, tutt, etc..its another to have irma with nothing in its way

Really the only hope for the US is for this to plow through Hispaniola...but given the set-up aloft its going to go through as a 4/5 which would obviously be devastating as well. Almost to the point of a lose-lose here, just need to hope it suddenly sniffs the weaknesses a little earlier and latches onto it out to sea. Not likely but it is now moving NORTH of forecast...how that lasts is yet to be seen!

[stormreader]

Hard for me to get too hung up on exact model forecasted intensity. That science is not yet that exact. Its the general outline that counts. There looks to be a major hurricane (perhaps even upper scale) very close to some part of the Fl coast in about a week's time.

[tailgater]

The models might continue to show these SW trends but the weakness remains in the same area basically. The entire east coast from South Fla, to Boston remains a threat. Outside chance the ridge totally builds across the north of Irma which is unlikely thus far but if it did could push her west or wsw across Cuba westward to Mexico.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trough is there on the run though of the GFS, and it seems to be slower. It could trend slower and slower till the trough catches it? Just hopefully thinking from the Wilmington, NC area I suppose.

Edit:
Trough that catches Irma at hour 240 is trending faster, and it could end up catching her before US landfall in future runs.

[stormreader]

Afternoon tea euro run could ratchet up the anxiety level fl to nc...these trends are completely in line with nhc thinking on the left...YIKES

Its one thing to have a system.with the shredder, shear, tutt, etc..its another to have irma with nothing in its way

Really the only hope for the US is for this to plow through Hispaniola...but given the set-up aloft its going to go through as a 4/5 which would obviously be devastating as well. Almost to the point of a lose-lose here, just need to hope it suddenly sniffs the weaknesses a little earlier and latches onto it out to sea. Not likely but it is now moving NORTH of forecast...how that lasts is yet to be seen!

Yeah, out to sea was never really a serious probability once we saw the angle of approach the storm would take into the Bahamas and very near S Fl. That combined with the fickle nature of this trough (deep but short-lived) argued against any out to sea pick up. There was going to be a landfall either in the Carolinas with a pick up and then push back west some with building ridge on top, or a very late pick up over S Fl, or no pick up at all, through the Fl Straits and well out into the GOM.

[JaxGator]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/904380426726379523

The strength may be overdone imo, but with Irma that size and its position, Florida to the Carolinas would get wind and rain. Not to mention beach erosion.

[jlauderdal]

Afternoon tea euro run could ratchet up the anxiety level fl to nc...these trends are completely in line with nhc thinking on the left...YIKES

Its one thing to have a system.with the shredder, shear, tutt, etc..its another to have irma with nothing in its way

Really the only hope for the US is for this to plow through Hispaniola...but given the set-up aloft its going to go through as a 4/5 which would obviously be devastating as well. Almost to the point of a lose-lose here, just need to hope it suddenly sniffs the weaknesses a little earlier and latches onto it out to sea. Not likely but it is now moving NORTH of forecast...how that lasts is yet to be seen!

We did have a situation around 2004 with debby, slam dunk headed right to miami, continues west hits the shredder and evaporates...big problem, 2017 modeling and forecasting is significantly better

[MetroMike]

CMC...Over my house!!!

Last night's Canadian showed a landfall in Jupiter/Tequesta...so we got an east shift in the Canadian!

Very minimal shift east, still a Florida hit.

[stormreader]

The models might continue to show these SW trends but the weakness remains in the same area basically. The entire east coast from South Fla, to Boston remains a threat. Outside chance the ridge totally builds across the north of Irma which is unlikely thus far but if it did could push her west or wsw across Cuba westward to Mexico.

Basically agree. But can't see a trough pick up deep enough to get the storm further north along the coast. Think it would be unlikely for the storm to make it north of Cape Fear NC before ridge blocks its path further north along the coast.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Trough is there on the run though of the GFS, and it seems to be slower. It could trend slower and slower till the trough catches it? Just hopefully thinking from the Wilmington, NC area I suppose.

Edit:
Trough that catches Irma at hour 240 is trending faster, and it could end up catching her before US landfall in future runs.

The GFS and all the other models have been trending southwesterly for the past day and the runs exhibit the trough pulling out earlier rather than later and the ridge rebuilding. Fellow members had posted several images and GIFs depicting the dramatic trend closer to Florida and the Carolinas a few minutes ago. It may be too late for the trough to fully perforate into the outflow of the system and go OTS. The most northern scenario now would be the Mid-Atlantic rather than Nova Scotia 24 hours back.

[AdamFirst]

I'm curious to know - the westward kink at the end of the UKMET, could that be the beginning of a longer term movement, a stall or a temporary jog before it turns back to the north?

I see a few GFS ensembles doing the west jog before turning to the north.

[Frank P]

looks like the forward speed is also going to be critical on just how far west she can go...

[tgenius]

HWRF should be kicking off pretty soon.