ATL: IRMA - Models

[Prof]

If I was a FL resident now is the time to think about moving inland or take a vacay next week. Models have trended west and now look like a Fl issue the EC. All the other models have tended west with the EURO.

East coast Florida resident here trying to decide if we should book our hotel for Tampa, Tallahassee, or Tennessee!

[SouthFloridian92]

Staying put here in heartland FL.

[Aric Dunn]

at 81 hours its sliht faster but also slight sw of previous run.. for the HWRF

[txwatcher91]

The CMC is not a very good model for TC track. It performed horribly with Harvey and has not done very well with Irma either. A blend of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET is the best choice here. The consensus seems to strongly favor a storm in the Bahamas in 6 days with a strong pull north towards SC or NC. I don’t see a Florida landfall happening but there will still be widespread impacts from the large wind field.

Well, we have to look at trends, we are closely entering the 5 day mark where we will more or less know where it will impact.

Yeah but the CMC and NAVGEM models aren’t very good to use for trends. Really the main models that have performed well are the GFS, UK and Euro. Usually wherever the CMC and NAVGEM have a storm going.. you can rest assured you’ll be spared a landfall With Harvey the CMC insisted on Mexico and NAVGEM on Louisiana. They’re both performing poorly with Irma thus far too. Ensembles this afternoon will be more useful for trends.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

[TexasF6]

Is there a possibility it could get into the GOM? I'm in the area with flooding from Harvey. We would like to close the gulf and get fall started now. Please.

This is a question for the discussion forum? But I would suggest you follow our vaunted ProMet WxMan57 and his posts, last one I saw he mentioned a 2% chance of Irma entering the GOM.

[gatorcane]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

Yes and is yet another SW shift by the ensembles. Looks at the 06Z at this time, less ensembles to the NE:

[Hurricaneman]

Here's how I see the chances

Florida landfall 38%
Carolinas landfall. 45%
Eastern GOM. 5%
Out to sea 2%
Northeastern US/Canadian landfall 10%

[ROCK]

Is there a possibility it could get into the GOM? I'm in the area with flooding from Harvey. We would like to close the gulf and get fall started now. Please.

This is a question for the discussion forum? But I would suggest you follow our vaunted ProMet WxMan57 and his posts, last one I saw he mentioned a 2% chance of Irma entering the GOM.

No model solution has shown GOM and no ensembles I have seen even suggest GOM. I would say less than 2%...FL and EC issue is high.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

They are also a lot more tightly packed than the 06z GEFS members were. Basically NC to Florida like most have been saying on here. It is trending away from the NE. Please trend back east models, please.

[Aric Dunn]

Is there a possibility it could get into the GOM? I'm in the area with flooding from Harvey. We would like to close the gulf and get fall started now. Please.

This is a question for the discussion forum? But I would suggest you follow our vaunted ProMet WxMan57 and his posts, last one I saw he mentioned a 2% chance of Irma entering the GOM.

No model solution has shown GOM and no ensembles I have seen even suggest GOM. I would say less than 2%...FL and EC issue is high.

yesterday a few GFS members had it into LA ..

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF south shift again (and stronger):

[HurricaneFrances04]

Still a week out, these western shifts could put the eastern GoM into play. Looks like a couple GFS ensembles show it.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM shifts east a little:

[birddogsc]

Is it likely for the models to "over-trend" to the SW, and then begin trending back to the NE? It seems that as we watch this systems this many days out a "flip-flop" a relatively common occurrence.

If so, I am more concerned about a Carolinas' landfall than 24 hours ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm starting to wonder if the westward trend has stopped, with the last couple of models showing a slight trend East. They may be just all consolidating though

[gatorcane]

And the HWRF south shift continues, in fact not that far from Hispaniola:

[CrazyTropics]

This definitely based on model guidance going to be a Hugo 2.0 type situation. NC/SC big time in play. GOM just is not going to get this. FL east coast will get a severe scratching all the way up due to tue massive size of this. This maybe much bigger than Hugo. Not sure why people I disagree with keep saying GOM or NE. Guess GON is the flavor still as it should be but lets keep an eye on the ball folks

[Alyono]

it's actually a quarter degree FASTER

Was Irma's (seemingly) temporary break from the southerly motion this afternoon properly modeled? I realize these things wobble all the time, but todays motion is surely not a simple wobble

Well, I'll answer my own question: no. HWRF 12z for example, progs Irma at 17n 50w by 8pm tonight, and its not going to be anywhere close to that. Wonder if that calls all these runs into question?

it's also moving MUCH faster than HWRF was indicating.

It looks to be about to resume a WSW motion. My guess is this will be around 17.5 and 50.5 at 0Z. Don't think this matters all that much. Still looking at destructive hurricane conditions for Barbuda, St. Martin, and Anguilla

[crimi481]

eyes glued to Model trends