ATL: IRMA - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

This definitely based on model guidance going to be a Hugo 2.0 type situation. NC/SC big time in play. GOM just is not going to get this. FL east coast will get a severe scratching all the way up due to tue massive size of this. This maybe much bigger than Hugo. Not sure why people I disagree with keep saying GOM or NE. Guess GON is the flavor still as it should be but lets keep an eye on the ball folks

The same models yesterday were saying OTS or NE/Delmarva hit. The SE Bahamas are just now in the 5 day cone. We have a long way to go.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Someone get the tea and crumpets the 12z Euro is about to commence.

[stormreader]

This is a question for the discussion forum? But I would suggest you follow our vaunted ProMet WxMan57 and his posts, last one I saw he mentioned a 2% chance of Irma entering the GOM.

No model solution has shown GOM and no ensembles I have seen even suggest GOM. I would say less than 2%...FL and EC issue is high.

yesterday a few GFS members had it into LA ..

And I think it's premature (with models trending west--a deep but short-lived trough in early Sept) to be dismissive of a GOM entry. Even a late trough pick up over S Fl (which is very reasonable considering west trends) probably puts Irma into the extreme east GOM. And we could still see solid pushes WNW toward S Fl.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This definitely based on model guidance going to be a Hugo 2.0 type situation. NC/SC big time in play. GOM just is not going to get this. FL east coast will get a severe scratching all the way up due to tue massive size of this. This maybe much bigger than Hugo. Not sure why people I disagree with keep saying GOM or NE. Guess GON is the flavor still as it should be but lets keep an eye on the ball folks

Too early. If you have been following the past four runs, the trends were westerly toward SE FL and the NC/SC border. While it is still over 5 days out to know particularly where Irma would landfall, the SW shifts for the past 24 hours have been significant.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the HWRF is definitely too far south. That doesn't even look right. If it keeps this up, it will be shredded on at the expense of the Hispaniola mountains and lots of lives lost in the islands. Sure it would destroy the storm, but lots of lives too

[weathaguyry]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

They are also a lot more tightly packed than the 06z GEFS members were. Basically NC to Florida like most have been saying on here. It is trending away from the NE. Please trend back east models, please.

A trend back east into to the Mid-Atlantic/NY would end up being a much, much more catastrophic solution, based on the population density and not being prepared for a Hurricane at all.

[CrazyTropics]

This definitely based on model guidance going to be a Hugo 2.0 type situation. NC/SC big time in play. GOM just is not going to get this. FL east coast will get a severe scratching all the way up due to tue massive size of this. This maybe much bigger than Hugo. Not sure why people I disagree with keep saying GOM or NE. Guess GON is the flavor still as it should be but lets keep an eye on the ball folks

The same models yesterday were saying OTS or NE/Delmarva hit. The SE Bahamas are just now in the 5 day cone. We have a long way to go.

Yes they were trending Not OTS but to the NE and I will say that those models have been relatively consistent about FL to NC

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think the HWRF is definitely too far south. That doesn't even look right. If it keeps this up, it will be shredded on at the expense of the Hispaniola mountains and lots of lives lost in the islands. Sure it would destroy the storm, but lots of lives too

Can't rule that out with ridging like this. It's a bit south but not unrealistic at all.

[tolakram]

The 12z Euro has had a history of disagreeing with the 0z. Hopefully it trends east again, we do not want anyone getting hit with a major. I'm also concerned with the islands, it's going to be close enough that a wobble can really ruin someones day.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro rolling...

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro rolling...

Something to note: Yesterday's run had this SW from where it initialized today. However the ridge is stronger.

[AutoPenalti]

A bit faster now and a bit more SW from yesterday's run.

[Maineman]

To assess short range model performance, light is back on over Irma:

https://weather.us/satellite/503-w-160-n/satellite-hd-15min.html#play

IR:

https://weather.us/satellite/503-w-160-n/top-alert-15min.html#play

(zoom out via (-), zoom in via cklick, for Pan click into edges.

[AxaltaRacing24]

12z Euro rolling...

Something to note: Yesterday's run had this SW from where it initialized today. However the ridge is stronger.

Hard to compare that due to the 12 hr gap in runs. Hr 12 on the full res euro is equal to last nights 24

[ColdMiser123]

12z UKMET

[SouthFLTropics]

24 Hours

[gatorcane]

How 12Z HWRF ends. It is SW of 06Z run and close to the UKMET. Watch out Turks and Caicos:

[otowntiger]

Is it likely for the models to "over-trend" to the SW, and then begin trending back to the NE? It seems that as we watch this systems this many days out a "flip-flop" a relatively common occurrence.

If so, I am more concerned about a Carolinas' landfall than 24 hours ago.

Yes- I've been thunking and saying the same thing. Just because it started a west trend and several models continued the trend for a few runs certainly didn't mean they would continue. And this far out they could certainly trend back. Wxman57 seems to think Florida is less of a concern than points north. That says a lot to me right now and the simple and obvious fact that the main models while fluctuating some still keep it east of Florida I think the ultimate solution may be some where between the eastern most track yesterday and east of the current model concensus- just my amateur 2 cents

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF has considerably more moisture at 700mb in the storm's inner core than 0Z. not much different outside the core though. Wonder what's the cause of that...
0Z:

12Z

Link to the data: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/54 ... 0900z.html click near the edge of the map to pan, click the middle to zoom in, use (-) button to zoom out and menus to adjust parameter/time. Full res ECMWF for free! Can't beat free

[Steve]

JMA out to 72 hours hits Puerto Rico right after the run stops (still got half to go). Shift south from yesterday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0312&fh=72

12Z GEFS Ensembles cluster around the Mid-South Carolina Coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0