ATL: IRMA - Models

[stormreader]

12Z ECMWF perhaps a tad NE of 0Z but still a very, very close flyby of the islands. One wobble S and some of those folks are going to have a rough time. ECMWF simrad: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/60 ... 0300z.html other parameters via menu, click map to zoom in, click near edge to pan. (-) zooms ya out if you want enjoy!

I think thats too close to call it a "flyby". Looks like a strike, and within the 72 hr window. Action time for the islands.

[tolakram]

This is an island hit, hoping everyone down there is prepared!

[Mello1]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

I had that question too, so I looked it up. A Cat 5 storm typically has a pressure of less than 920 mb....

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF would be rough for those NEmost islands. Right in the eyewall according to reflectivity: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/60 ... 0300z.html wind gusts >130mph: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/60 ... 0900z.html other parameters of course via menus

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

They are also a lot more tightly packed than the 06z GEFS members were. Basically NC to Florida like most have been saying on here. It is trending away from the NE. Please trend back east models, please.

New to the board and not an expert, but after seeing the devastation and loss of life and property these monster storms cause, it's not appropriate for anybody to urge or "root" for it to hit anywhere other than out to sea. I'm from the NE and I don't want it to hit here, but you won't see me going on the board and pleading for a more SW course.

FWIW I don't think that is what Tarheelprogrammer was insinuating. Now back to the models.

[SFLcane]

Oh...EURO SW again just N of Hispaniola

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF perhaps a tad NE of 0Z but still a very, very close flyby of the islands. One wobble S and some of those folks are going to have a rough time. ECMWF simrad: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/60 ... 0300z.html other parameters via menu, click map to zoom in, click near edge to pan. (-) zooms ya out if you want enjoy!

I think thats too close to call it a "flyby". Looks like a strike, and within the 72 hr window. Action time for the islands.

yep. Latest frames do show a strike. Hope everyone on those NEmost islands gets out of the way. I sure wouldn't want to sit on a 12ft high pile of sand/coral in the eyewall of a cat 4/5!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

More of a SC/NC border thing, not further south. Modles have it going through middle of NC at 196 hrs. Too far out but the trend is between SC and NC. Would say both bc the storm will be about the size of both states so wont matter where it hits. The effects are going to be far reaching

It is OVER 5 DAYS out and how could you be this certain on an impact over the NC/SC area??? We've reiterated several times in this forum yes it is very likely but as the forecast period moves forward the models begin to diverge so the "danger area" is the entire SE coast from Miami up to Maryland and also, please don't ignore the trend. Point seen in the latter half of your statement.

[Aric Dunn]

well thats another big shift by the euro.. similsr to the UKMET and those GFS memebers in the florida straights ....should be quite a bit closer to florida this run..

[Frank P]

looks south a little more to me at H96

[Happy Pelican]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

They are also a lot more tightly packed than the 06z GEFS members were. Basically NC to Florida like most have been saying on here. It is trending away from the NE. Please trend back east models, please.

New to the board and not an expert, but after seeing the devastation and loss of life and property these monster storms cause, it's not appropriate for anybody to urge or "root" for it to hit anywhere other than out to sea. I'm from the NE and I don't want it to hit here, but you won't see me going on the board and pleading for a more SW course.

Welcome to the forum! Agreed. Sadly, there will always be wish-casters but overall, this is a very respectful group and I think we're all feeling extremely nervous as to who/where Irma ends up but the vast majority are certainly pushing for a safe escape out see.

[SouthFLTropics]

96 Hours...Big trough lifting...Big Ridge Steering

[Alyono]

looks like Hispañiola is now in play...

[Alyono]

Oh...EURO SW again just N of Hispaniola

Shredder for the win?

win? thousands will die if this goes over Hispañiola

[drezee]

Irma has to dive SW to make that 24 hours position. I think hope the model correct North at 0z.

[SouthFLTropics]

looks like Hispañiola is now in play...

Very bad for them...Will see a severe loss of life on that island, even without a direct hit.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh...EURO SW again just N of Hispaniola

Shredder for the win?

win? thousands will die if this goes over Hispañiola

Considering Haiti hasn't recovered from that catastrophic tremblor years ago and with its poor infrastructure and development, it is concerning to say the least

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, a complete W shift again.

[Alyono]

Irma has to dive SW to make that 24 hours position. I think hope the model correct North at 0z.

Irma has resumed its WSW motion

[stormreader]

96 Hours...Big trough lifting...Big Ridge Steering

Could easily skirt the north coast of Hispaniola and then be further south than expected along the north coast of Cuba.