ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

Folks,

If you see crazy over the top posts that are clearly out of line please REPORT, don't reply, so we can take care of them. Also keep in mind this is the model thread and try hard to not post one liners that don't add to the discussion.

Thanks!

[SFLcane]

120hrs heading WNW still south of 00z run

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF definitely trending more southerly than the 00z... going right through the Bahamas, as opposed to north of, by 120 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

According to GEPS Ensembles the Eastern GOM is in play...TREND 00z to 12z

[northjaxpro]

looks like Hispañiola is now in play...

Yes it is now based on the shifts in the model guidance south and west. Irma could get close enough to the northern coast of that island for impacts.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Euro may get South Florida this run or get real close.

[SouthFloridian92]

This is so emotionally exhausting. If only we could know for certain where she's going.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The trough's direct influence on Irma has waned this run, ridge rebuilds earlier and perhaps a change this time?


P.S: This is the first Atlantic hurricane I have ever closely followed throughout my life so far. Irma has a late-WPAC-super typhoon vibe into it with the uncertainty in track and its longevity.

[Aric Dunn]

much more ridging this run.. also note our little more pronounced friend in the BOC vs the 00z..? yes I know they are 12 hours apart ... maybe see a approach to the gulf unless the ridging breaks down..

12z


00z

[gatorcane]

BIG south shift by JMA. Has it in SE Gulf hour 168

[stormreader]

Euro may get South Florida this run or get real close.

You would think its going to be pretty close.

[Frank P]

steering looks a little weak to me at H120

[ConvergenceZone]

If it goes over the high mountains, the hurricane would come to an end and be destroyed, but like the Mets were saying, but at the expense of thousands of lives

[AdamFirst]

Here's an obscure analog, but a question for the promets:

Any chance Irma gets tugged over Hispaniola, like what happened with Debby in 2000? Im not sure if that was predicted at the time.

[Blown Away]

Not missing Florida this time... That Euro run is a life changer that will take years to recover... OMG...

[SFLcane]

Gonna smack SFL on this run...144hrs

[Steve H.]

Aw geez, look at that 144 hour position....dammit.

[tolakram]

Here's an obscure analog, but a question for the promets:

Any chance Irma gets tugged over Hispaniola, like what happened with Debby in 2000? Im not sure if that was predicted at the time.

It's really hard to say when it involves something that happened 17 years ago. Models are a lot better now, but we have seen what can happen past 4 or 5 days, especially with Matthew last year.

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's an obscure analog, but a question for the promets:

Any chance Irma gets tugged over Hispaniola, like what happened with Debby in 2000? Im not sure if that was predicted at the time.

It could happen, but it's a no win situation. Yes the hurricane would be destroyed, but so would thousands of lives. No win situation