ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

144 Hours

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA now in Gulf:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This might be the major shift for Euro back to a Florida landfall. Looking ominous.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro is a troll, you had to know it was going to pull a different solution. Was it the coamps that someone posted that had this turning and running up the middle of Florida? Posted this morning, I think.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's an obscure analog, but a question for the promets:

Any chance Irma gets tugged over Hispaniola, like what happened with Debby in 2000? Im not sure if that was predicted at the time.

It's really hard to say when it involves something that happened 17 years ago. Models are a lot better now, but we have seen what can happen past 4 or 5 days, especially with Matthew last year.

One thing to remember is that Debby wasn't near as established as Irma is.

[PTPatrick]

Could JMA be in gulf cuz it's showing a weaker 987 system?

[M3gaMatch]

Now we wait for 168hrs to see where that second trough builds in...

[ronjon]

12z Euro almost dead on track wise with UKMET through 144 hours.

[USTropics]

I noticed this setup trending in the ecmwf 00z ensembles. Look for a hit on south Florida or for it to carry into the egom and then recurve through western Florida with the next trough

[Aric Dunn]

well at least its 936 and not 880 ... lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

well at least its 936 and not 880 ... lol

Is that hi-rez ?????????

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Could JMA be in gulf cuz it's showing a weaker 987 system?

JMA's just a lower resolution model, I believe.

[Steve H.]

Donna redux?

[ronjon]

12Z Euro is a troll, you had to know it was going to pull a different solution. Was it the coamps that someone posted that had this turning and running up the middle of Florida? Posted this morning, I think.

No Mark it was the Canadian.

[HurricaneBelle]

This might be the major shift for Euro back to a Florida landfall. Looking ominous.

The entire state of Florida looks at the 144 hr Euro and cries out in unison: "Pull up! Pull up!"

[hurricaneCW]

Wow ruthless run by the Euro especially through those islands.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It may be worth noting in the latest 12z run, Irma's pressure is higher at 942 mb by 21 mb in contrast to the 921 mb prior

[stormreader]

Donna redux?

Well, this run is why I had the Fl Straits as a part of my thinking "Irma window". Probably seemed far-fetched to many, when the thinking was either out to sea, or toward the NE US. The southerly trek is becoming more likely now.

[Aric Dunn]

wow nice sharp curve.. interesting.. I wonder how it will handle the building ridge shortly.

[SouthFLTropics]

168 Hours...Pulling up parallel to the coast