ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

Sharp right turn.

[Blown Away]

Maybe it misses?? Hurricane winds on the Florida coast on this run...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hour 168, it's pulling a Matthew. Skirting the coast of Miami-Dade as a 934 mb category 4 (?)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that a trough attached to it by hour 168? It pulls north at the last minute, but if I lived in Florida I would be checking my emergency plans. That was too close for comfort, and it is a strong hurricane.

[otowntiger]

More of a SC/NC border thing, not further south. Modles have it going through middle of NC at 196 hrs. Too far out but the trend is between SC and NC. Would say both bc the storm will be about the size of both states so wont matter where it hits. The effects are going to be far reaching

I still wonder about the size forecasts. I'm very skeptical since right now it's sooo small, and wxman57 says it's hard for storm to grow significantly in size without land interaction. Also I'm wondering about the forecast strength at this time. Have/will the models begin to back off since it so far not been strengthening as advertised and in fact may be weakening. Any pro mets care to comment on size and strength down the road?

[Jimsot]

It looks like Anguilla and St. Martin get the core of the storm or close to it.

EC steamrolls the Leeward and Virgin Islands

Yep, slight south shift. Not good...

Critical forecast now for Virgin Islands and probably Puerto Rico as well. They've entered into the 72 hr landfall window as foretold by this Euro run. Speculative phase for them is basically over. Time to complete preparations for a major hurricane strike.

[SouthFLTropics]

Emergency planners have their work cut out for them this week. This would prompt evacuations from the Keys all the way up the coast.

[birddogsc]

168 Hours...Pulling up parallel to the coast

The ridge doesn't fill in below the through in this run... Will it be enough to pull Irma back out? Concern is that does not, and Irma slams back into the Carolinas (again).

[M3gaMatch]

Yep, definite trough interaction @ 168hrs, hence the curve **north!

Sorry, so used to tracking these things in the SH.

[stormreader]

Is that a trough attached to it by hour 168? It pulls north at the last minute, but if I lived in Florida I would be checking my emergency plans. That was too close for comfort, and it is a strong hurricane.

Definitely. Chances of Fl landfall going way up now.

[drezee]

Jose "to be" saves S FL...it breaks down the edge of the ridge. If it is not there, then it likely goes in.

[ronjon]

Lol...florida has its deflecter shield on at 168 hrs on the Euro.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro is a troll, you had to know it was going to pull a different solution. Was it the coamps that someone posted that had this turning and running up the middle of Florida? Posted this morning, I think.

No Mark it was the Canadian.

I ignore the Canadian. Here is is, from a Jeff Masters blog. CFAN adjusted Euro.



Figure 4. The 0Z September 2, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, but adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that takes into account storm motion since 0Z ), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Friday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines), predict that the U.S. East Coast might be at highest risk from a strike, though there are quite a few solutions that have a storm that recurves out to sea without hitting land. Image credit: CFAN.

[gatorcane]

Euro barely misses Florida but the key point is that it trended SW of 00Z. Wouldn't take much of a shift and South Florida gets the core of Irma. Considering it is 168 hours out we are well within margin of error.

[Steve H.]

Oh man, I've fallen victim to my old Nemesis...model hugging!!! i'M DOOMED!!

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

chance of a miss this run

[GeneratorPower]

Ridge and trough placement completely different from previous run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks to be on a route OTS, correct?

[tolakram]

Pretty radical shift at 500mb from the last run.