ATL: IRMA - Models

[PTPatrick]

Yeah offshore is nice but all it really tells us that we have lost concensus as to what pattern will be in 7-9 days

[stormreader]

Wow definitely not a very good trend at all for SFL hope this stops.

Absolutely correct. If you're in S Fl, about the best you can hope for is a major north turn, right at the last minute. That's just not a good situation to be in. Give it another couple of days to look for changes, but the trends have not been east, but west.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, this run of the ECMWF is different. What causes it to go OTS?

[AdamFirst]

I had asked this earlier, but aren't we getting G-IV data for tonight's runs?

[AutoPenalti]

Well, this run of the ECMWF is different. What causes it to go OTS?

Jose going rapid intensification mode. Something that was only modeled on one run.

[shah83]

Atlantic high doesn't fill in the trough, trough becomes cutoff and moves east, dragging storm to sea.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow definitely not a very good trend at all for SFL hope this stops.

Absolutely correct. If you're in S Fl, about the best you can hope for is a major north turn, right at the last minute. That's just not a good situation to be in. Give it another couple of days to look for changes, but the trends have not been east, but west.

Wouldn't be surprised if we started to see East shifts again as it is still a week out from POTENTIAL landfall.

[shah83]

I don't think this OTS Euro is a very likely solution. Wanna see the EPS first before taking it seriously.

[sunnyday]

How far ahead should the area of Irma's predicted landfall be notified so that people can have time to evacuate safely?

[birddogsc]

Well, this run of the ECMWF is different. What causes it to go OTS?

The trough manages to break through the ridge with the model hinting that "Jose" (or the low following Irma) turns north and helps out.

[Alyono]

Well, this run of the ECMWF is different. What causes it to go OTS?

Jose going rapid intensification mode. Something that was only modeled on one run.

it's NOT Jose. It's a massive 500mb trough over Newfoundland. The 0Z had a ridge

[wxmann_91]

Well, this run of the ECMWF is different. What causes it to go OTS?

The big closed low that forms near Newfoundland in the Day 8+ range.

The EPS mean has a less deep trough, and the GEFS doesn't have it at all. Also, the op Euro has a tendency to form these big closed lows in the longer ranges that don't end up verifying. So not sold on this particular outcome (not to mention that it goes against climo for storms that get that close to the CONUS), though there is support from individual ensemble members.

[birddogsc]

I had asked this earlier, but aren't we getting G-IV data for tonight's runs?

I asked earlier... First flight is tomorrow:

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

[stormreader]

Wow definitely not a very good trend at all for SFL hope this stops.

Absolutely correct. If you're in S Fl, about the best you can hope for is a major north turn, right at the last minute. That's just not a good situation to be in. Give it another couple of days to look for changes, but the trends have not been east, but west.

Wouldn't be surprised if we started to see East shifts again as it is still a week out from POTENTIAL landfall.

Well you're right, still have time to watch. I think Tues afternoon is going to get a potential S Fl landfall into the 5 day frame (I think). So model runs at that time are going to carry so much more weight.

[Alyono]

I had asked this earlier, but aren't we getting G-IV data for tonight's runs?

I asked earlier... First flight is tomorrow:

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

there is a training flight ongoing now. Not sure if the flight level data and or dropsondes will make it into the next 18 and 0Z runs

[Steve]

HWRF-P into the southern Bahamas.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=141

Meanwhile GFS has now hit the US on 8 consecutive runs. Might be consistently bs but it's been more consistent than EC. With GEFS consensus at SC, GFS operational may drop another 50-100 miles south by the 00Z run. That will be interesting to watch. Also by late tonight we will be within 8 days of landfall or sooner for the US. Short term model consensus for the next 96 hours should be good. Immediate question is did they overdo a southern track that brings it into or north of PR? I said yesterday I was highly confident in the 96 being a hair north of PR and coming from ESE. Gonna be close with a slight southern adjustment overall. But that vicinity Wednesday looks very good. And by then the next 96 hours is likely landfall.

[M3gaMatch]

I think a big reason it stays offshore this run is because the first trough just meanders in the NE for so long and even cuts off into a strong upper low. Ridge can't build in fast enough to its north to block it from OTS. Whereas if trough quickly receeded you'd have to think it'd be quickly replaced by the ridge. Tbh I think this run is holding onto that first trough for far too long.

[Blown Away]

Pretty radical hard right turns in SE Bahamas and then off Carolinas... Clobbers the Bahamas and brings likely hurricane gusts to Florida coast...

[stormreader]

Many posts (deservedly so) are going to be about potential landfall in S Fl or North Carolina ....and other places. But here is the most important takeaway from this run. The NE islands (Virgin Islands etc...) are now within a 72hr landfall window for a major hurricane strike. Got to look first at them.

[Raebie]

I had asked this earlier, but aren't we getting G-IV data for tonight's runs?

I asked earlier... First flight is tomorrow:

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

First flight is today at 5PM, not tomorrow.