ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4401 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:03 pm

I think now we should start seeing E shifts after the Gulf Stream data is introduced. Euro showed us that an OTS scenario, although somewhat difficult, is still possible.

At the same time however, we could be encountering a potentially stronger ridge and of course the eventual SFL landfall.

These next couple of days will be interesting to say the least.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4402 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:04 pm

The west trend continues:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4403 Postby Cataegis96 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:10 pm

Shift southwestward by the Euro is concerning. The nature of the trough that pulls this out is very uncertain. Need to wait a couple more days to have a clearer idea of how it will interact with Irma. For now, more and more locations are being put into play with each model run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4404 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:12 pm

The 12z JMA 500mb pattern just makes more sense than this 12z ECM run, pretty close to what we have seen most of the summer.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4405 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:14 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The 12z JMA 500mb pattern just makes more sense than this 12z ECM run, pretty close to what we have seen most of the summer.


Be interested to hear you elaborate on that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4406 Postby invest man » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:14 pm

So then let me get this right! Gfs takes it to NC/SC Border and makes landfall and makes a sharp nw turn. Euro gets to almost same location and makes a hard ne then ene turn OTS. If I got this right then which one is more believable at this point or option 3, none of the above?
Last edited by invest man on Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4407 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:16 pm

invest man wrote:So then let me get this right! Hfs takes it to NC/SC Border and makes landfall and makes a sharp nw turn. Euro gets to almost same location and makes a hard ne then ene turn OTS. If I got this right then which one is more believable at this point or option 3, none of the above?

We just don't know. At this point even the EGOM could be in play, next run who knows?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4408 Postby M3gaMatch » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:17 pm

Euro ensembles will be interesting later on.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4409 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:18 pm

Alyono wrote:
birddogsc wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:I had asked this earlier, but aren't we getting G-IV data for tonight's runs?


I asked earlier... First flight is tomorrow:

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.


there is a training flight ongoing now. Not sure if the flight level data and or dropsondes will make it into the next 18 and 0Z runs

yes now close to irma
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4410 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:19 pm

M3gaMatch wrote:Euro ensembles will be interesting later on.


With that hard right turn forecast by the Euro just off the Fl coast, and with the continued westward trend in model runs, I think you are right.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4411 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:22 pm

stormreader wrote:Many posts (deservedly so) are going to be about potential landfall in S Fl or North Carolina ....and other places. But here is the most important takeaway from this run. The NE islands (Virgin Islands etc...) are now within a 72hr landfall window for a major hurricane strike. Got to look first at them.


Exatly right! The main reason for the great concern for the islands first and foremost!!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4412 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:24 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
stormreader wrote:Many posts (deservedly so) are going to be about potential landfall in S Fl or North Carolina ....and other places. But here is the most important takeaway from this run. The NE islands (Virgin Islands etc...) are now within a 72hr landfall window for a major hurricane strike. Got to look first at them.


Exatly right! The main reason for the great concern for the islands first and foremost!!!


And the last few runs of the models have turned into a potentially dire situation for the northern Antilles, as we are getting to near that 48 hour window.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4413 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:24 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
stormreader wrote:Many posts (deservedly so) are going to be about potential landfall in S Fl or North Carolina ....and other places. But here is the most important takeaway from this run. The NE islands (Virgin Islands etc...) are now within a 72hr landfall window for a major hurricane strike. Got to look first at them.


Exatly right! The main reason for the great concern for the islands first and foremost!!!


Also, on a more somber note. As storms have rolled in toward the US mainland in past years, we've often gotten a first look at them through initial landfalls in places like Puerto Rico, or Aruba, or the Virgin Islands. Its usually a very sobering picture. Thinking of storms like Hugo and Ivan.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4414 Postby OuterBanker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:25 pm

invest man wrote:So then let me get this right! Gfs takes it to NC/SC Border and makes landfall and makes a sharp nw turn. Euro gets to almost same location and makes a hard ne then ene turn OTS. If I got this right then which one is more believable at this point or option 3, none of the above?


Yep, that's pretty much it.
Interestingly enough the 00z Euro had a NC landfall. The 12Z had the ots scenario. Just like yesterday’s 12z.
I’m starting to really favor the 12z runs of the Euro. For purely selfish reasons. :D
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4415 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:25 pm

Still 7-8 days out. Maybe the Euro is on to something. Lets hope so. Be putting my chips on Euro and UKMET as these models have performed best in the long term. I won't be concerned with a US hit until we're within the 5 day window.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4416 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:25 pm

Of note...Today's 12z operational run of the Euro almost mirrors the 00z EPS ensembles to a T.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4417 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:27 pm

invest man wrote:So then let me get this right! Hfs takes it to NC/SC Border and makes landfall and makes a sharp nw turn. Euro gets to almost same location and makes a hard ne then ene turn OTS. If I got this right then which one is more believable at this point or option 3, none of the above?

A brush or FL landfall then towards the Carolinas appears the most likely to me.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4418 Postby joey » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:31 pm

Euros last run has half the storm into sourh fl will future runs have it on top of the area ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4419 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:32 pm

joey wrote:Euros last run has half the storm into sourh fl will future runs have it on top of the area ?

It's possible if the SW trend stays.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4420 Postby pcolaman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:32 pm

I my opinion I think we still have to watch and see if the Western Trends continue or not before we put in a reliable thoughts into one model run showing more of an easterly Trends in my opinion
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