ATL: IRMA - Models

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z JMA 500mb pattern just makes more sense than this 12z ECM run, pretty close to what we have seen most of the summer.

Be interested to hear you elaborate on that.

Trough not hanging around and lifting out faster replaced by Eastern Canadian ridge to western Atlantic. Western Atl still quite warm ridge just disappears on the ECM run, would be unusual for early Sept. along with such a deep and slow moving trough.

[mike2kt]

I had asked this earlier, but aren't we getting G-IV data for tonight's runs?

I asked earlier... First flight is tomorrow:

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

there is a training flight ongoing now. Not sure if the flight level data and or dropsondes will make it into the next 18 and 0Z runs

Nope no data. Looks like they were just pre-staging Gonzo (G-IV) to Barbados. But a new flight just took off NOAA2...

[Dean4Storms]

Somebody tell my at the 240hr ECM when you saw 500mb trough stretching from West TX across all of the SE USA clear out to the middle of the North Atlantic in early Sept.?
Me? Not buying it!

[hohnywx]

So then let me get this right! Gfs takes it to NC/SC Border and makes landfall and makes a sharp nw turn. Euro gets to almost same location and makes a hard ne then ene turn OTS. If I got this right then which one is more believable at this point or option 3, none of the above?

All we know is that the GFS has been consistent on a landfall on the east coast whereas the Euro has been literally all over the map.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro ensembles shifted west from 0z. The mean is very close to southeast Florida in 7 days, with several members making it into the Gulf.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z EC ensembles begin diverge significantly in about six days. Solutions range from across Cuba and into Gulf to what looks to be a full recurve west of Bermuda. As a whole, the bulk of the ensembles shifted west by quite a bit.

Please, please, please, remember any US impacts are still likely at least 6-7 days away, and a lot can change between now and then. It's too early to speculate any direct impacts at this time. Residents in the Leeward islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the US east coast should keep a close eye on this storm.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro ensembles shifted west from 0z. The mean is very close to southeast Florida in 7 days, with several members making it into the Gulf.

The mean then goes up the spine of the peninsula, which is a whopping 200+ miles west of the 0Z EPS mean. So, the 12Z EPS mean is well west of the 12Z Euro op.

[SFLcane]

Yikes!

[psyclone]

Somebody tell my at the 240hr ECM when you saw 500mb trough stretching from West TX across all of the SE USA clear out to the middle of the North Atlantic in early Sept.?
Me? Not buying it!

This has been well advertised for quite some time. take a look at the current 6-10 day outlook...it shows below normal temp probs to lake Okeechobee and local WFOs like Mobile are forecasting lows into the 50's in the Florida panhandle by next Thursday.

[TheStormExpert]

Yikes!

Where did Florida go!?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yikes!

So, is the Euro OP run a bad run? I hope not. We need that thing to turn away, and turn away earlier if possible.

[clipper35]

I have this feeling we will see the 18z gfs shift towards the ecmwf run.

[Ivanhater]

Wow...almost 25 percent go into the gulf

[TheStormExpert]

Yep a definite west shift to over the Florida peninsula in the 12z EPS Ensembles.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro Ensembles

[marciacubed]

What time are the GFS models coming out?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/904431594009640960

[invest man]

Yikes!

This seems to be in line with a 1999 track of Floyd. Getting awfully close to Florida turning up into the Carolinas. This WILL change!

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro Ensemble Trend...Yesterday 12z vs Today 12z

[Blown Away]

Majority of the Euro ensembles don't follow the operational track OTS...