ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

What time are the GFS models coming out?

5:30PM EDT

[WAcyclone]

EPS trend:



Source: http://www.weathernerds.org

[marciacubed]

What time are the GFS models coming out?

5:30PM EDT

So after the next NHS track? This should be an interesting advisory.

[Steve]

Of note all but about 5 of those ensembles have a northwest hook a couple hundred miles inland. GFS started that at 00z yesterday which was 7 runs ago. Timing of the huge Canadian ridge remains the key. It's speed rolling east is the #1 deterministic factor of a trap if it's slow or a hook West later inland. If EC comes farther south at 00Z, it's probably indicative of a 90% chance the US gets hit by a major next Monday. The less populated the area the better. Wilmington NC is a cheaper alternative to anything from the tidewater north to New England. I'm not wishing it on that area at all. I have been there and hope they get spared. But from a dollars and cents perspective, a 1 in Raleigh is better financially than a 3 in Philly.

[HurricaneFrances04]

EPS trend:

Interesting that with all the shifts up to now, Hispaniola is still avoided by most models.

[marciacubed]

Of note all but about 5 of those ebsembles have a northwest hook a couple hundred miles inland. GFS started that at 00z yesterday which was 7 runs ago. Timing of the huge Canadian ridge remains the key. It's speed rolling east is the #1 deterministic factor of a trap if it's slow or a hook West later inland. If EC comes farther south at 00Z, it's probably indicative of a 90% chance the US gets hit by a major next Monday. The less populated the area the better. Wilmington NC is a cheaper alternative to anything from the tidewater north to New England. I'm not wishing it on that area at all. I have been there and hope they get spared. But from a dollars and cents perspective, a 1 in Raleigh is better financially than a 3 in Philly.

Don't you mean a 3 in Raleigh is better than a 1 in Philly?

[Aric Dunn]

Nhc will be likely shifting track south a good bit at 5.

[PTrackerLA]

12z EPS Control hits Morehead City, NC and goes north into Maryland.

[Blown Away]

EPS trend:



Source: http://www.weathernerds.org

It seems those 12z ensembles not showing as much of a dip through @72 hours as the 00z??

[Ivanhater]

Regardless of what happens...the Gulf percentage has increased quite a bit from today's models

[weathaguyry]

12z EPS Control hits Morehead City, NC and goes north into Maryland.

Can you post the graphic?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/904430892520796162

[pgoss11]

Yikes!

So, is the Euro OP run a bad run? I hope not. We need that thing to turn away, and turn away earlier if possible.

Looks like a lot more going out to sea after coming up the coast to the Carolinas. Maybe we do get the miracle out to sea happen.

[SFLcane]

12z EPS Control hits Morehead City, NC and goes north into Maryland.

Control Hits SFL first..

[Steve]

No. It would probably down to Cat 1ish by Raleigh who admittedly has experienced major flooding in past storms. A 4/5 hitting NOVA/MarylandDE as the GFS has shown 3 times in the past 7 runs has a much shorter trip to Philadelphia all of which showed 940s there. Millions more people and more wind and surge damage in that scenario. I'm talking financial impacts as well.

[weathaguyry]

No. It would probably down to Cat 1ish by Raleigh who admittedly has experienced major flooding in past storms. A 4/5 hitting NOVA/MarylandDE as the GFS has shown 3 times in the past 7 runs has a much shorter trip to Philadelphia all of which showed 940s there. Millions more people and more wind and surge damage in that scenario. I'm talking financial impacts as well.

Also don't forget the 1 run into NYC, then the other one into NJ, and a few for Long Island and Rhode Island, if a Hurricane were to strike NYC, THAT would have much worse damage and devastation than if it hit the OBX, or SFL where they are much more prepared for hurricanes (houses that can withstand the winds, shutters, etc)

[CrazyTropics]

Yikes!

This seems to be in line with a 1999 track of Floyd. Getting awfully close to Florida turning up into the Carolinas. This WILL change!

I agree if you have been paying attention over the life of the models the ovwrall for irma is a swing back and forth west to east but it has always been a bee line for florida, turn north scrap florida to the carolinas. Yes there are outliners into GOM and NE or OTS. But overall if we look at the whole it has been telling the whole time. I see people talking about GOM but just not enough to go on. I know people are freakin in FL, rightfully so, but I think you will see another shift east bit same overall results. My two cents. Models are telling

[Steve]

Regardless of what happens...the Gulf percentage has increased quite a bit from today's models

It's has M. I think I gave it 1-2% chance of a keys and up the Peninsula and a 0% chance in the Gulf otherwise by 12z models yesterday. I'm still going with nearly impossible Gulf (except Keys), but that's subject to change. Original thinking was S/SE FL and Bahamas. Bastardi took the Bahamas mostly off the table yesterday with the parallel track to their NE. I think he was Euro hugging though. Don't be surprised if next time he shows up with a track, they are back in the game. Whether they get hit or not, they are my #1 concern, and I've been harping that **** for 4 days. Cat 5 is possible there and not a remote possibility either.

Also gonna disagree with wxman a hair and say that Irma will not remain small. All the hurricane models expand it markedly in the coming days. Hurricane models yesterday were showing roughly 240x280 miles across with a smaller inner core. I think it will approach that size near the Bahamas and by a different process than EWRC.

[floridasun78]

Regardless of what happens...the Gulf percentage has increased quite a bit from today's models

It's has M. I think I gave it 1-2% chance of a keys and up the Peninsula and a 0% chance in the Gulf otherwise by 12z models yesterday. I'm still ground with nearly impossible Gulf (except Keys), but that's subject to change. Original thinking was S/SE FL and Bahamas. Bastardi took the Bahamas mostly off the table yesterday with the parallel track to their NE. I think he was Euro hugging though. Don't be surprised if next time he shows up with a track, they are back in the game. Whether they get hit or not, they are my #1 concern, and I've been harping that **** for 4 days. Cat 5 is possible there and not a remote possibility either.

Also gonna disagree with wxman a hair and say that Irma will not remain small. All the hurricane models expand it markedly in the coming days. Hurricane models yesterday were showing roughly 240x280 miles across with a smaller inner core. I think it will approach that size bear the Bahamas and by a different process than EWRC.

were you think will go too?

[Nimbus]

Nhc will be likely shifting track south a good bit at 5.

I was looking at the model performance and the Euro even at 72 hours the average error is over 200 km's.
In this case the forecast error range is probably smaller due to less than average complexity.
This one is too close still think we might have to wait till 24 hrs before the islands can be sure if its going to be just tropical storm force winds or something much worse. Of course that means all the PITA advance notice preps need to be done in the Lesser Antilles.

The JMA model track into the gulf could verify but until the more reliable models join it in the 5 day range its an outlier.