ATL: IRMA - Models

[pcolaman]

I'll take that bet that the models do shift more to the West

[Vdogg]

I have this feeling we will see the 18z gfs shift towards the ecmwf run.

Why would it do that? The latest Euro run doesn't even agree with it's own ensembles. Seems like an outlier. Why would gfs move towards it?

[meriland29]

An I seeing things? Did GFS go from a 900mb landfall at 06z to a whopping 885mb landfall?

[Frank P]

interesting stuff Nimbus, and JMA and UKMO not much behind either..

[MetroMike]

Twitter Post: Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi

Euro correction West through day six plausible if not likely. strong trough off northeast coast after that not likely. Escape hatch closing

[Maineman]

Many of the 50 members of ECMWF 12z with different solutions - just one example #42


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/m42_sea-level-pressure/20170911-1200z.html

[jlauderdal]

nhc on the clock for the next disco...do they bite on that somewhat odd euro run or just a continuation of the same....first pressure point is the islands of course, high pressure stuff here figuring out if there will be a landfall, either way preps should be the same, a few hours of wobble like we saw and it its a game changer if its near your location

[Vdogg]

Yikes!

So, is the Euro OP run a bad run? I hope not. We need that thing to turn away, and turn away earlier if possible.

Looks like a lot more going out to sea after coming up the coast to the Carolinas. Maybe we do get the miracle out to sea happen.

The vast majority hit land somewhere on that map. Maybe 5 go OTS. What are you looking at to say it's majority OTS?

[stormreader]

Wow...almost 25 percent go into the gulf

Thats why I have been saying that those who dismiss an entrance into the gulf are way to premature.

[jlauderdal]

So, is the Euro OP run a bad run? I hope not. We need that thing to turn away, and turn away earlier if possible.

Looks like a lot more going out to sea after coming up the coast to the Carolinas. Maybe we do get the miracle out to sea happen.

The vast majority hit land somewhere on that map. Maybe 5 go OTS. What are you looking at to say it's majority OTS?

there is an ever increasing problem with geography and trends on this forum, just sayin

[meriland29]

is 885mb pressure even possible in that vicinity (Carolinas) given the cooler water temps?

[tarheelprogrammer]

is 885mb pressure even possible in that vicinity (Carolinas) given the cooler water temps?

I would think so as the Gulf Stream waters run through there right off the coast. I would think it is impossible though due to dry air being pulled from land. METs can explain it more I am sure

[Steve]

Bastardi hedge as predicted. We don't know yet, and he jumped the gun Euro hugging yesterday as I speculated.

floridasun78,

I don't know. Like I've said, i always thought Bahamas and S/SE FL but sort of drifted a bit north with the models yesterday. It's too early for me as I like to wait until 5-6 days out. What I would tell you is that I expect it to be a little north of Puerto Rico on Wed and moving WNW at that time. If I'm right, Melbourne to Wilmington, NC would be my spread. However, if it becomes clear that there is a west movement that will be primary, Miami and the FL Straits would not be off the table at all.

[meriland29]

Wow...almost 25 percent go into the gulf

Thats why I have been saying that those who dismiss an entrance into the gulf are way to premature.

The system keeps trending west and south in almost ever ensemble continuously. It would really suck if it made it into the Gulf with that warm bathwater. But, let's just keep with the current models and not assume it will or wont.

[Alyono]

is 885mb pressure even possible in that vicinity (Carolinas) given the cooler water temps?

I would think so as the Gulf Stream waters run through there right off the coast. I would think it is impossible though due to dry air being pulled from land. METs can explain it more I am sure

it's possible, though very unlikely. Would require a PERFECT trough interaction to provide a major outflow enhancement

[pgoss11]

So, is the Euro OP run a bad run? I hope not. We need that thing to turn away, and turn away earlier if possible.

Looks like a lot more going out to sea after coming up the coast to the Carolinas. Maybe we do get the miracle out to sea happen.

The vast majority hit land somewhere on that map. Maybe 5 go OTS. What are you looking at to say it's majority OTS?

Maybe it's just wishful "seeing" ?

[stormreader]

EPS trend:



Source: http://www.weathernerds.org

This graphic is important. First glance you just see how the ensembles have shifted west. But more important I think is the later time frame of those that shifted west. They show a later motion of west over the mainland. In other words, those models that enter the Gulf of Mexico seem to show no influence at all from this trough. So that is what I am going to look for in the next couple of days, a real possibility that Irma misses the trough and continues WNW over S Fl and into the Gulf of Mexico. Still have my "Irma window" from Cape Fear NC to North coast of Cuba, but watching closely now to see if the trough is actually going to pick up Irma.

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF control run:



12z UKMET with a sharp turn in the Bahamas (like the 00z). Still lots of uncertainty...

[stormreader]

EPS trend:



Source: http://www.weathernerds.org

This graphic is important. First glance you just see how the ensembles have shifted west. But more important I think is the later time frame of those that shifted west. They show a later motion of west over the mainland. In other words, those models that enter the Gulf of Mexico seem to show no influence at all from this trough. So that is what I am going to look for in the next couple of days, a real possibility that Irma misses the trough and continues WNW over S Fl and into the Gulf of Mexico. Still have my "Irma window" from Cape Fear NC to North coast of Cuba, but watching closely now to see if the trough is actually going to pick up Irma.

Correction: Should say much less influence from the trough. The ensembles still show an influence--Irma moving North in the GOM. But not showing a turn to the NE at that point. Seems like its leaving the door open for entry into the GOM and then a possibility of a track further west in GOM than would be foreseen my most at this point.

[Steve H.]

Yikes!

This seems to be in line with a 1999 track of Floyd. Getting awfully close to Florida turning up into the Carolinas. This WILL change!

I agree if you have been paying attention over the life of the models the ovwrall for irma is a swing back and forth west to east but it has always been a bee line for florida, turn north scrap florida to the carolinas. Yes there are outliners into GOM and NE or OTS. But overall if we look at the whole it has been telling the whole time. I see people talking about GOM but just not enough to go on. I know people are freakin in FL, rightfully so, but I think you will see another shift east bit same overall results. My two cents. Models are telling

I don't think people are freakin' in Florida. Last I saw the beaches were packed and the Keys buzzing like a normal Labor Day weekend. Only freaking out is with the folks on here. That will be part of the problem...then the last minute media blast! The typical response I got with a roommate Friday was "the hurricane is supposed to hit Cuba today (old model run) then where will it go." The usual pig ignorance....