ATL: IRMA - Models
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
18z GFS compared to the 12z. More SW. Not looking good:
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Models really are trending close to PR and Hispaiola now, indeed alot are now right over the NE Caribbean islands which will sadly probably be a disaster for them as they take what will probably be a 4/5 head on.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HurricaneFrances04
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
With a dominating ridge, what trough is the GFS interacting Irma with such that it bombs out this low?
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Kingarabian
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I sense a Florida hit on this run...
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Kingarabian wrote:With a dominating ridge, what trough is the GFS interacting Irma with such that it bombs out this low?
Possibly the upper level trough that is riding to it's northwest during the early run?
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Kingarabian
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That's a very strong Cat 5 going into the Bahamas on a lower resolution output. Looks like 904MB. Probably as low as we've seen in the Atlantic since Wilma if I'm not mistaken.
Let me remind everyone something that we learned here in the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina. While I'll always say it was just an average/ordinary Cat 3 storm, because of the surge and momentum it had from its Cat 5 days over the middle of the Gulf, it had a Category 5 surge component with mostly 2-3 effects otherwise. Wherever GFS brings it in, beware of massive surges ahead of it for SE and S facing river basins, bays and outlets. Trust me.
Also, GFS is 1 degree farther south and 1 degree farther west at 132 hours right in the Bahamas. It's 900mb vs the last run that was 890s and 1 degree farther north and east
Let me remind everyone something that we learned here in the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina. While I'll always say it was just an average/ordinary Cat 3 storm, because of the surge and momentum it had from its Cat 5 days over the middle of the Gulf, it had a Category 5 surge component with mostly 2-3 effects otherwise. Wherever GFS brings it in, beware of massive surges ahead of it for SE and S facing river basins, bays and outlets. Trust me.
Also, GFS is 1 degree farther south and 1 degree farther west at 132 hours right in the Bahamas. It's 900mb vs the last run that was 890s and 1 degree farther north and east
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
126 to 138 its moving straight west..
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
A north turn soon??? Between 132 and 138 it barely moved west...just barely
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
It sure is trending closer and closer on the GFS to Florida, only going to need slight adjustments to end up hitting Hispaniola as well. The ECM I see delivered the miracle run but I don't think that will happen if I'm honest.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
As we have discussed earlier today, the very disturbing SW shift continues in the 18Z GFS run. This is not good at all!
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:126 to 138 its moving straight west..
looks WNW to me Aric..
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