ATL: IRMA - Models
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
NW turn @ 144
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Frank P wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:126 to 138 its moving straight west..
looks WNW to me Aric..
A hair north of west, probably no more than 275.
NW at 144hrs and starting to bomb again, down into the 890s again!
Last edited by KWT on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HurricaneFrances04
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
slight wnw turn at 144 hours.. will it lift out..
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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
. Plenty of time for the Magic Florida force firld to block it and send it away-WeatherEmperor wrote:
Uuuuh....guys.....
Ple:
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but the Bahamas though 
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
looks like its going to go straight north..
similar to the EURO
similar to the EURO
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
otowntiger wrote:. Plenty of time for the Magic Florida force firld to block it and send it away-WeatherEmperor wrote:
Uuuuh....guys.....
Ple:
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It seems to have stalled out there...and we saw what Joaquin did to those islands...
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Also GFS is keeping potential cyclone riding shotgun on Irma weak this run in the MDR.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tigerz3030
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
northjaxpro wrote:As we have discussed earlier today, the very disturbing SW shift continues in the 18Z GFS run. This is not good at all!
Northjax,
I value your opinion especially being located in St Augustine. At what point this week should we look at evacuation plans, preparations, etc?
Thank you to all of you for valuable information.
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Floridians pucker pressure will be quite high and many won't have any finger nails left at 150
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Frank P wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:126 to 138 its moving straight west..
looks WNW to me Aric..
The WNW stairstep through the Bahamas. Not what I want to see in S. Florida.
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Kingarabian
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
hour 156.. resume a nw motion.. few hours away from landfal..
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Maybe it misses the US coastline like the ECMWF? Think it has a chance to miss Carolinas this run? 
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
More southwest at 144 hours than 12Z by slightly over a degree south and slightly over a degree west. Faster and farther south.
Same story at 150 but more of a Northward component is now kicking into the track. Will it hit SE FL or will it move up around the east of the coastline? Btw, we are at 6 days out from 1pm today, so next Saturday looks like a day or so southeast of Miami. I juts don't know if it's going there on this run yet!
Same story at 150 but more of a Northward component is now kicking into the track. Will it hit SE FL or will it move up around the east of the coastline? Btw, we are at 6 days out from 1pm today, so next Saturday looks like a day or so southeast of Miami. I juts don't know if it's going there on this run yet!
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS steering. Looks like it spares Florida:
I am seeing shades of Floyd here. I know the models 18 years ago weren't nearly as great, but there was disagreement for the longest time on whether it would hit or just miss Florida, and they ranged from completely OTS to the western Panhandle.
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