ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF is a bit more SW. (My SW keys are about to fall off )

[Aric Dunn]

if that upper low does not form IRMA would have just kept heading w to wnw into the gulf..

I'm not sure, without that low, steering currents are fairly weak around hour 150, no giant ridge that would push anything into the gulf, maybe it would meander off of florida if the low wasn't there? Just a total guess.

well, your forgetting.. or maybe didn't read my earlier post.. if that low doe snot form then ridging would have built in almost right after the trough lifted out at 120 to 130 hours... but becasue that low forms no ridging.

you cant just erase the low without putting something in its place and that would be ridging..

[ronjon]

if that upper low does not form IRMA would have just kept heading w to wnw into the gulf..

Aric are you talking about the weakness forming in La-Miss at 500 mb?

[Steve]

Question for the group. Since "the turn" isn't forecast for 6 days, is there anything we should be watching in the models for the next couple of days, to determine if the turn might happen later than currently forecast? I'm asking this as a Northern Gulf Coaster. Thanks for any responses.

Hey Rockyman,

Be sure to run the models at 500mb (upper dynamics) if you want to see that. If you want to see what's going on in real time compared to what the models said would happen, watch endless loops of Water Vapor (aka WV) satellites for the Western Atlantic and also for North America. Because that will usually paint in what's going on in the upper levels better than any other satellite image. And also, globals are released several hours after their initialization time. So you can watch what they're getting right and what they are getting wrong. An example is the GFS which starts showing output around 10:30pm Central. But it technically starts at 7pm. So 3 1/2 hours have elapsed before you see the first image and whether it depicted the upper pattern right or would require some adjustments. Water Vapor is the real time comparison for what you're looking for.

[MGC]

Not buying the GFS pressure forecast. It would be deeper than the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.....MGC

[plasticup]

As for pressure, one of the big guns on twitter(Ryan?) said that since the GFS was updated, in terms of a storms strength add +50 and that is what the actual mb's will be.

That would still make it the strongest NC landfall in history. I mean, it is patently absurd.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I have no idea why people even think this storm is going into the 880s. It is not going to get that strong. HOWEVER, what this means is that the model senses a very favorable area for this storm to intensify.

[CrazyTropics]

As for pressure, one of the big guns on twitter(Ryan?) said that since the GFS was updated, in terms of a storms strength add +50 and that is what the actual mb's will be.

That would still make it the strongest NC landfall in history. I mean, it is patently absurd.

How is that absurd? It can and eventually will happen. 1935 they did not even have the tech we do now. How do you even know that was the losest

[HurricaneFrances04]

I believe this is why we don't see a 7 day track from the NHC. Too much uncertainty in too long of a time frame. Not right to cause that much panic.

[weathaguyry]

As for pressure, one of the big guns on twitter(Ryan?) said that since the GFS was updated, in terms of a storms strength add +50 and that is what the actual mb's will be.

As for the models, this is my gut and my opinion so hear me out, I really think Irma's going to split the difference and head straight up into either the Delmarva or split NJ in half. Again, just my gut. I have that same, uneasy feeling I had with Sandy and yes, I know it's two different systems but something in these models is leading down that train of thought.

Also, if Irma turns in for landfall just a bit north of where the 18Z GFS has her, it still puts NJ in the NE quadrants and we'll see a surge from her and given how bad everything floods since Sandy, it's going set countless homeowners 10 steps back who still aren't finished rebuilding after nearly 5 years.

Again, just my OPINION. Don't take it as a forecast or even remotely serious.

I very much agree with this, and this is how I feel too. I feel that since there are numerous members on the board from Florida, there may be a slight bias towards a landfall around there, and the bias isn't that large, but when you have so many members from one area, you will probably get at least one or two that may start to wishcast towards their area. I am definitely guilty of doing this, because when I was younger I always wanted the big storms to come to me, but during Sandy, when I heard water gush into my house with no lights, and screaming parents combined with only being 9 at the time, it made me stop wanting storms to come to the area. Anyway, without the "Magic Upper Low" over the MS valley that would slingshot this into Morehead City, NC, the ridge looks somewhat weak as the trough lifts out, so this thing could potentially move NNE, then turn back towards the coast once the high builds back in, possibly around the Delmarva? Just an amateur opinion on all of this, and not to be taken as fact.

[jdjaguar]

WOW, and just that close to a 300 billion dollar damage disaster to the state of Florida... still quite discomforting for the residents watching this monster approach and hoping it indeed does turn... nightmare for local authorities too...

If folks along the east coast of Florida went through Matthew only to get very little, they may not prepare as much because "Matthew wasn't that bad there, and this will stay offshore too". So that's a real danger if it does suddenly move inland.

Agree.

This westward trend is troublesome, really do not want to go through a " Matthew scenario" with a much stronger storm.
My mom lives in Vero (84) on the barrier island, and the logistics of evacuating her with a coast rider headed to my location become very difficult if not impossible.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904477993946542080

[weathaguyry]

if that upper low does not form IRMA would have just kept heading w to wnw into the gulf..

I'm not sure, without that low, steering currents are fairly weak around hour 150, no giant ridge that would push anything into the gulf, maybe it would meander off of florida if the low wasn't there? Just a total guess.

well, your forgetting.. or maybe didn't read my earlier post.. if that low doe snot form then ridging would have built in almost right after the trough lifted out at 120 to 130 hours... but becasue that low forms no ridging.

you cant just erase the low without putting something in its place and that would be ridging..

That makes more sense, but the ridge that could build in would probably creep in from the West, not the the East

[OntarioEggplant]

As many hurricanes as I've seen in my lifetime, I just don't understand how it would be possible to see a landfalling tropical cyclone at the place and intensity the 18Z GFS is showing. It's blowing my mind.

[Ivanhater]

Based on that...50 percent chance of getting in Gulf to 50 percent chance going east of Florida...very interesting model runs today...very complex upper air patter giving low confidence

[Frank P]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904477993946542080

So basically from the Pacific to the North Pole is in play, with FL the targeted zone...

[northjaxpro]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904477993946542080

Just think, there were some folks who had to be reminded to not be premature to sound the all clear alarm for Irma not impacting Florida.

How quickly things can change in about 36 hours time. Amazing !!

[SootyTern]

As for pressure, one of the big guns on twitter(Ryan?) said that since the GFS was updated, in terms of a storms strength add +50 and that is what the actual mb's will be.

As for the models, this is my gut and my opinion so hear me out, I really think Irma's going to split the difference and head straight up into either the Delmarva or split NJ in half. Again, just my gut. I have that same, uneasy feeling I had with Sandy and yes, I know it's two different systems but something in these models is leading down that train of thought.

Also, if Irma turns in for landfall just a bit north of where the 18Z GFS has her, it still puts NJ in the NE quadrants and we'll see a surge from her and given how bad everything floods since Sandy, it's going set countless homeowners 10 steps back who still aren't finished rebuilding after nearly 5 years.

Again, just my OPINION. Don't take it as a forecast or even remotely serious.

I very much agree with this, and this is how I feel too. I feel that since there are numerous members on the board from Florida, there may be a slight bias towards a landfall around there, and the bias isn't that large, but when you have so many members from one area, you will probably get at least one or two that may start to wishcast towards their area. I am definitely guilty of doing this, because when I was younger I always wanted the big storms to come to me, but during Sandy, when I heard water gush into my house with no lights, and screaming parents combined with only being 9 at the time, it made me stop wanting storms to come to the area. Anyway, without the "Magic Upper Low" over the MS valley that would slingshot this into Morehead City, NC, the ridge looks somewhat weak as the trough lifts out, so this thing could potentially move NNE, then turn back towards the coast once the high builds back in, possibly around the Delmarva? Just an amateur opinion on all of this, and not to be taken as fact.

I'm not getting any sense of -removed- from my fellow Floridians who post more than I do. Given the latest model trends, it is very likely we all will be doing some major preps starting in the next couple of days unless things change (of course they could). So of course we are watching it; this could turn into a very real threat for folks in this region. This does not discount the threat Irma poses to people elsewhere in the US and Caribbean.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies

[HurricaneFrances04]

Wow. Very tight cluster with the GFS ensembles of a Matthew like track up the east coast of Florida.