ATL: IRMA - Models

[joey]

So with thus run if the storm picks up speed in the bahamas it gets closer to fl right

[ava_ati]

As for pressure, one of the big guns on twitter(Ryan?) said that since the GFS was updated, in terms of a storms strength add +50 and that is what the actual mb's will be.

As for the models, this is my gut and my opinion so hear me out, I really think Irma's going to split the difference and head straight up into either the Delmarva or split NJ in half. Again, just my gut. I have that same, uneasy feeling I had with Sandy and yes, I know it's two different systems but something in these models is leading down that train of thought.

Also, if Irma turns in for landfall just a bit north of where the 18Z GFS has her, it still puts NJ in the NE quadrants and we'll see a surge from her and given how bad everything floods since Sandy, it's going set countless homeowners 10 steps back who still aren't finished rebuilding after nearly 5 years.

Again, just my OPINION. Don't take it as a forecast or even remotely serious.

I very much agree with this, and this is how I feel too. I feel that since there are numerous members on the board from Florida, there may be a slight bias towards a landfall around there, and the bias isn't that large, but when you have so many members from one area, you will probably get at least one or two that may start to wishcast towards their area. I am definitely guilty of doing this, because when I was younger I always wanted the big storms to come to me, but during Sandy, when I heard water gush into my house with no lights, and screaming parents combined with only being 9 at the time, it made me stop wanting storms to come to the area. Anyway, without the "Magic Upper Low" over the MS valley that would slingshot this into Morehead City, NC, the ridge looks somewhat weak as the trough lifts out, so this thing could potentially move NNE, then turn back towards the coast once the high builds back in, possibly around the Delmarva? Just an amateur opinion on all of this, and not to be taken as fact.

I'm not getting any sense of -removed- from my fellow Floridians who post more than I do. Given the latest model trends, it is very likely we all will be doing some major preps starting in the next couple of days unless things change (of course they could). So of course we are watching it; this could turn into a very real threat for folks in this region. This does not discount the threat Irma poses to people elsewhere in the US and Caribbean.

Floridians have a little more experience watching these, we've been seeing multiple "it's a little more south of the official forecast" and the last few models have been trending west. I think Florida is in the crosshairs based on that fact alone and I am starting to prepare here in St. Augustine. I am not expecting a direct hit, where I live, but I fully expect either a glancing Matthew type blow or a direct hit from a Cat 1/2 that has weakened coming up from the south. Right now there is 0 evidence of a NJ hit, there is more evidence of a hit in S. Carolina/N. Carolina after either a glancing blow in FL or a direct hit.

Right now the models are trending towards a FL impact, sorry to say it but that is a fact.

[jlauderdal]

I very much agree with this, and this is how I feel too. I feel that since there are numerous members on the board from Florida, there may be a slight bias towards a landfall around there, and the bias isn't that large, but when you have so many members from one area, you will probably get at least one or two that may start to wishcast towards their area. I am definitely guilty of doing this, because when I was younger I always wanted the big storms to come to me, but during Sandy, when I heard water gush into my house with no lights, and screaming parents combined with only being 9 at the time, it made me stop wanting storms to come to the area. Anyway, without the "Magic Upper Low" over the MS valley that would slingshot this into Morehead City, NC, the ridge looks somewhat weak as the trough lifts out, so this thing could potentially move NNE, then turn back towards the coast once the high builds back in, possibly around the Delmarva? Just an amateur opinion on all of this, and not to be taken as fact.

I'm not getting any sense of -removed- from my fellow Floridians who post more than I do. Given the latest model trends, it is very likely we all will be doing some major preps starting in the next couple of days unless things change (of course they could). So of course we are watching it; this could turn into a very real threat for folks in this region. This does not discount the threat Irma poses to people elsewhere in the US and Caribbean.

Floridians have a little more experience watching these, we've been seeing multiple "it's a little more south of the official forecast" and the last few models have been trending west. I think Florida is in the crosshairs based on that fact alone and I am starting to prepare here in St. Augustine. I am not expecting a direct hit, where I live, but I fully expect either a glancing Matthew type blow or a direct hit from a Cat 1/2 that has weakened coming up from the south. Right now there is 0 evidence of a NJ hit, there is more evidence of a hit in S. Carolina/N. Carolina after either a glancing blow in FL or a direct hit.

Right now the models are trending towards a FL impact, sorry to say it but that is a fact.

You could also have a 5, too early too

[ava_ati]

I'm not getting any sense of -removed- from my fellow Floridians who post more than I do. Given the latest model trends, it is very likely we all will be doing some major preps starting in the next couple of days unless things change (of course they could). So of course we are watching it; this could turn into a very real threat for folks in this region. This does not discount the threat Irma poses to people elsewhere in the US and Caribbean.

Floridians have a little more experience watching these, we've been seeing multiple "it's a little more south of the official forecast" and the last few models have been trending west. I think Florida is in the crosshairs based on that fact alone and I am starting to prepare here in St. Augustine. I am not expecting a direct hit, where I live, but I fully expect either a glancing Matthew type blow or a direct hit from a Cat 1/2 that has weakened coming up from the south. Right now there is 0 evidence of a NJ hit, there is more evidence of a hit in S. Carolina/N. Carolina after either a glancing blow in FL or a direct hit.

Right now the models are trending towards a FL impact, sorry to say it but that is a fact.

You could also have a 5, too early too

Yep absolutely, that will be difference between me being prepared to sit it out or leaving town. But like I said, at this point the models are trending towards it impacting my weekend in some form or fashion. About all I can do now is prepare and wait and hope to God a new trend becomes apparent.

[Alyono]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

[Frank P]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Well that has to be a world record huh?

[Stangfriik]

Floridians have a little more experience watching these, we've been seeing multiple "it's a little more south of the official forecast" and the last few models have been trending west. I think Florida is in the crosshairs based on that fact alone and I am starting to prepare here in St. Augustine. I am not expecting a direct hit, where I live, but I fully expect either a glancing Matthew type blow or a direct hit from a Cat 1/2 that has weakened coming up from the south. Right now there is 0 evidence of a NJ hit, there is more evidence of a hit in S. Carolina/N. Carolina after either a glancing blow in FL or a direct hit.

Right now the models are trending towards a FL impact, sorry to say it but that is a fact.

You could also have a 5, too early too

Yep absolutely, that will be difference between me being prepared to sit it out or leaving town. But like I said, at this point the models are trending towards it impacting my weekend in some form or fashion. About all I can do now is prepare and wait and hope to God a new trend becomes apparent.

I remember us going back and forth on whether to leave when Matthew was expected to come a little more inland. We decided to stay and luckily it stayed a bit off shore. We were about a mile from the beach then in New Smyrna Beach.

Now we are just over 2 miles inland in a 100 year old 2 story wood home as opposed to a block home built in the 60's. We had actually acquired the home right before Matthew but were doing demo and prep work for the restoration that will finally be starting soon.

Since these models keep inching closer and closer, we aren't too sure what to do. Sure the house has been here for a 100 years but its only gone through a few storms in that time period. We are also in a low lying part of new Smyrna and the house had ankle deep water just from Matthew.

[RL3AO]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Apparently, it doesn't couple with the ocean which seems insane for a new mesoscale hurricane model.

[northjaxpro]

That is right. All we can do is prepare the best we can ahead of the storm and pray for the best scenario(s) to happen.

[AdamFirst]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Two questions:
What would that translate to in surface pressure?

And

What model is the HMON? I keep seeing it mentioned.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GEFS clustered on Florida.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Two questions:
What would that translate to in surface pressure?

And

What model is the HMON? I keep seeing it mentioned.

GFDL successor, IIRC.

['CaneFreak]

Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies

Where did this map come from? I would like to research into this further. Thanks.

[jlauderdal]

You could also have a 5, too early too

Yep absolutely, that will be difference between me being prepared to sit it out or leaving town. But like I said, at this point the models are trending towards it impacting my weekend in some form or fashion. About all I can do now is prepare and wait and hope to God a new trend becomes apparent.

I remember us going back and forth on whether to leave when Matthew was expected to come a little more inland. We decided to stay and luckily it stayed a bit off shore. We were about a mile from the beach then in New Smyrna Beach.

Now we are just over 2 miles inland in a 100 year old 2 story wood home as opposed to a block home built in the 60's. We had actually acquired the home right before Matthew but were doing demo and prep work for the restoration that will finally be starting soon.

Since these models keep inching closer and closer, we aren't too sure what to do. Sure the house has been here for a 100 years but its only gone through a few storms in that time period. We are also in a low lying part of new Smyrna and the house had ankle deep water just from Matthew.

Be smart and stay safe..we need two more days to get a confident track..lots of noise in the modeling for now

[Alyono]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Apparently, it doesn't couple with the ocean which seems insane for a new mesoscale hurricane model.

datafile says it is coupled

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HMON HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRMA 11L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 03

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND(KTS)

[Alyono]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Two questions:
What would that translate to in surface pressure?

And

What model is the HMON? I keep seeing it mentioned.

as I said, 858mb. Actually peaks at 957mb

[Hurricane Andrew]

Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies

HAHAHAHA...um...I'm gonna go buy that RHIB, right after I finish my hurricane briefing,

[Spacecoast]

Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies

Where did this map come from? I would like to research into this further. Thanks.

Here is a similar site... from NOAA
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[Steve]

18Z NAVGEM is out to 72 hours and might be .1 or .2 degrees farther west and maybe a hair more concentric in presentation.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0318&fh=72

HWRF is also basically an update of 12Z at 105 hours which is how far it is out so far. Also a more circular eye and a few millibars stronger than 12z.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[Frank P]

At H105 the HWRF model heading straight towards the Turks and Caicos Is with 917 MB