ATL: IRMA - Models

[wxmann_91]

The level of crazy this run has is just off the charts. Could even have a Fujiwhara interaction with future Jose down the road. And with that stall, the trap door will close as a large ridge builds over the Northeast U.S. So many possibilities...

[AxaltaRacing24]

This run is way too far South. GFS is on crack. And no I'm not -removed-. I live in California

It has recon data....

[TheStormExpert]

This run is way too far South. GFS is on crack. And no I'm not -removed-. I live in California

GFS has been on crack for years we know that!

[CrazyC83]

Notice how slow it is moving near Cuba. That would be a LOT of rain. Also I have a hard time believing it would be more than a category 1 storm after that long on land.

Mountains of Cuba are to the SE.

True, but even over flat plains, 24 hours on land will weaken a storm greatly.

[Dean4Storms]

I said earlier that the 12z JMA looked more realistic than the 12z ECM bringing it into the SE GOM.

[Blinhart]

Notice how slow it is moving near Cuba. That would be a LOT of rain. Also I have a hard time believing it would be more than a category 1 storm after that long on land.

I can see her still being a major hurricane because there isn't that much land interaction, just might be smaller in size because of the mountains. Majority of the eye doesn't stay over Cuba much.

[weathaguyry]

This run is way too far South. GFS is on crack. And no I'm not -removed-. I live in California

I'm glad at least something made me laugh tonight

[Aric Dunn]

very small short wave finkally swinging down at 156 hours.. should move it a little north at least.. not sure it will be enough..

[sma10]

Still over 5 days out, so a lot of unknowns.

To me, this is the most important takeaway from this run: has the southern adjustment bottomed out? If not, DR sadly is going to catch hell, all to the benefit of the US.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy shift south. The difference becomes stark since the previous run showed Irma moving NNE away from FL, whereas this time its moving WNW while over Cuba

[Aric Dunn]

This run is way too far South. GFS is on crack. And no I'm not -removed-. I live in California

It has recon data....

current recon data is not enough to effect this far downstream..

[AdamFirst]

Some of the GFS Ensembles (from 18z I believe) showed what the operational run is showing now.

[GeneratorPower]

[crimi481]

Charley? Walmart in the morning.

[weathaguyry]

Btw Cuba and S FLA tip @162

[SFLcane]

If anything what these 00z runs might confirm is stronger ridging is in place

[CYCLONE MIKE]

TRap door opening but cant miss FL now

no trap door.. trough has been long gone.. only difference in the last few runs is that random low that developed over the mississippi valley. it is not there now.. so Like i said earlier what woud happen with out that low.. w to a wnw track into the gulf area.

Gfs does show it but looks like it just meanders around Nebraska/Iowa area then slowly starts moving south but shearing out at the same time. Nothing near as strong as before.

Nevermind it's there centered near Memphis.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Aussie model has been showing Irma crossing Cuba and hitting Tallahassee area.

Aussie model is the ukmet unified rebadged for Australia.

[eastcoastFL]

Notice how slow it is moving near Cuba. That would be a LOT of rain. Also I have a hard time believing it would be more than a category 1 storm after that long on land.

Mountains of Cuba are to the SE.

True, but even over flat plains, 24 hours on land will weaken a storm greatly.

I don't think the entire eye will be over land the whole time and with no elevation like mountains to tear it up it wouldn't significantly degrade the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Crazy shift south. The difference becomes stark since the previous run showed Irma moving NNE away from FL, whereas this time its moving WNW while over Cuba

the reason is very clear and this track makes much more sense given the downstream progession.