ATL: IRMA - Models

[La Sirena]

Yep, just about the worst possible solution for Florida

No kidding. This run would put the whole Miami, Ft Lauderdale and West Palm Beach metro in the right front quad of a cat 5. Pretty much an unmitigated disaster

Not to mention the Keys....

[jdray]

Yep, just about the worst possible solution for Florida

No kidding. This run would put the whole Miami, Ft Lauderdale and West Palm Beach metro in the right front quad of a cat 5. Pretty much an unmitigated disaster

Orlando, Tampa, Daytona, Gainesville, Jacksonville would also see Cat2-3 winds. The storm damage would be incredible.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS vs Florida

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the 00z UKMET text?

[Blinhart]

Keeps shifting South, but realistically how much farther south can it shift??

It could shift all the way to going under Cuba (highly doubtful, but possible) and hit Jamaica, but I think this the furthest South it will go (I hope).

[weathaguyry]

I don't think I'm going to stay up for the Euro, since school starts on Tuesday and I don't want to go into the year with a messed up sleep schedule. I don't know how much farther South it can get, given the GFS seems pretty far south compared to the 0z guidance, but who knows, its the same model that was showing a Cat 4 landfall in NYC a few days ago.

[Hurricaneman]

That run would do serious damage to Disney and Universal Orlando, let's just say the theme parks

[SouthFLTropics]

HOLY f#%^

Even if you add 50mb to that it's still a disaster and I don't see anywhere for me and my family to run to.

State EOC cannot even begin to evacuate for this. Contraflow on the Turnpike has never been implemented but there are plans for it. Even with it, you can't move that many people out of South Florida. Your best bet is to take refuge at an approved Red Cross Hurricane Shelter. I've already discussed this with my wife. If this looks like it is going to play out this way, then that is the option we are leaning at if the intensity is indeed this bad. The only way you make it out of the state for Evac would probably be to leave by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.

[joey]

wow wow

[GeneratorPower]

Yep, just about the worst possible solution for Florida

It is the worst. By far. That has ever been on the GFS for Florida.

[RL3AO]

So that happened. Back to homework until the Euro I guess.

[eastcoastFL]

Ok guys...I have been a member of S2K since 2003, just over 14 years now. Before that I was a member on the GoPBI board. I HAVE NEVER seen a model run hit South Florida the likes of what we just watched. If this plays out with that intensity and track, it will be a disaster of epic proportions. Entire South East and Central Florida will be wrecked. 300 Billion might not come close to this estimate.

I've been around pretty much the same time frame and live within miles of you. I'm in total agreement. This would be the absolute worst thing that ever could happen to our region. I can tell you now if this played out. I wouldn't be living in Florida anymore.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't think I saw yesterdays 12z JMA posted so here it is. Goes into the Eastern GoM, precursor of trends to come?

[Blinhart]

If that pans out would make Andrew looks tame :/ the costs for a storm of that path would have to be over 100 billion.

try over 1 trillion

[pcolaman]

As huge as she looks on those panels, I'm not even sure I would stay here in pensacola.

I'm not sure I'd stay here in southeast Alabama with those runs lol.

Me either here in Pensacola, I think we still might get more shifts to the west some but the data from the Recon has been loaded now .

[JPmia]

Based on today's trend.. I would not be surprised to wake up to models trending into Cuba and into the GOM. The UKMET is already showing this tonight. Talk about the windshield wiper effect.

[CourierPR]

Regarding the Cuban mountains affecting the storm's intensity, in 1964 Cleo crossed the mountains and went up the east coast of Florida. After crossing Cuba, it strengthened significantly before hitting Miami and points north. I know because I was in it.

[blp]

Yeah this goes in Give Florida Storm (GFS)Hall of Fame. First Ballot. Exposes almost every major city in the state to Hurricane conditions.

[Taylormae]

As huge as she looks on those panels, I'm not even sure I would stay here in pensacola.

In Pensacola myself and my nerves just shot way, way up.

A big thank you to everyone who contributes their opinion. I highly appreciate being able to come here and get an insight that offers more than local weather stations.

[cycloneye]

Yeah this goes in Give Florida Storm (GFS)Hall of Fame. First Ballot. Exposes almost every major city to Hurricane conditions.

Do you have the UKMET?