ATL: IRMA - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Where is the rest of the GFS run??? Seemed like people stopped posting them after next Sunday, or are they just delayed?[/q

[Alyono]

UKMET narrowly misses HAITI

[blp]

Yeah this goes in Give Florida Storm (GFS)Hall of Fame. First Ballot. Exposes almost every major city to Hurricane conditions.

Do you have the UKMET?

Here you go Luis. I have page that gives me the graphics but not out yet will post when out.

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 04.09.2017 17.2N 50.2W STRONG

12UTC 04.09.2017 16.5N 52.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2017 16.3N 54.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2017 16.4N 56.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2017 16.7N 58.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2017 17.7N 60.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2017 18.6N 62.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2017 19.4N 65.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2017 19.8N 67.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2017 20.0N 70.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2017 20.0N 72.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2017 20.2N 73.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2017 20.6N 75.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[GeneratorPower]

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

It will but it is moving slow enough to regenerate in the FL Straits.

[sma10]

1st order of business is to see how much the Euro and HWRF follow the Uk and JMA tonight. At least these two model should show more realistic results after significant land interaction with the islands. Next, will be to see when these shifts south stabilize.

As for GFS .. well, what can you say? It's the model that everyone seems to want to follow, but it's results are too bizarre.

Put it this way - if HWRF and Euro tonight bury themselves south into Cuba (as i expect to happen) what would you believe? The Euro/UK/HWRF/JMA alliance? Or the GFS freakshow?

[AdamFirst]

Where is the rest of the GFS run??? Seemed like posting them after next Sunday, or are they just delayed?

Nope, everyone stopped after the Apocalypse-storm landfell in Dade.

Parallels the coast, placing every east coast city up to Savannah, Georgia in its core before hooking into Georgia/South Carolina on a NNW/NW heading.

[PTPatrick]

I don't like how gfs plows it into Illinois...basically what that says is It may feel this weakness and temporarily shoot north into Florida but it could just as easily continue wnw into the northern gulf. It's all timing. Georges got ripped by Cuba and greater Antilles and while most Americans outside of PR and mobile/jackson counties don't remember it, it was quite a hit for them.

[bamajammer4eva]

0z GFS vs Florida
[img]https://media.giphy.com/media/zNyBPu5hEFpu/giphy.gif

I think from I-10 north in Florida would be safe and not be completely washed off the map

Just please please don't miss the peninsula first or that's not true and its all the way to the AL (or GA) state lines. Sorry peninsula folks lol JK

[Blinhart]

That's all it would take for Cuba to weaken the storm pretty significantly.

That's false. It would weaken the storm minimally at best. We had Wilma roll across Florida from SW to NE and she didn't skip a beat. A storm that the eye stays partially over water especially of this magnitude would not be severely diminished at all.

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

I don't know what to tell you, but with the fuel all around her and not really touch land that much she might drop her winds by 20 to 30 MPH, but as soon as she gets like 50 miles away from the coast she would blow right back up.

[CrazyC83]

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

It will but it is moving slow enough to regenerate in the FL Straits.

It would need to still have a solid inner core once it leaves Cuba. If the inner core falls apart, then it would take at least 36-48 hours to get itself together again.

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET narrowly misses HAITI

What are the chances Irma pulls an Ike and gets into the GOM?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[ConvergenceZone]

Anyone know why the last GFS Run only goes out to 174 hours? Usually they are posted beyond 200 hours. Maybe there is a bug?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

It will but it is moving slow enough to regenerate in the FL Straits.

Can this argument be moved to the Discussion page, please?

[PTPatrick]

UKMET narrowly misses HAITI

What are the chances Irma pulls an Ike and gets into the GOM?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Chances are certainly getting better. I imagine we will see enembles spreads for Nola to charleston but with even more GOM than previously.

[GeneratorPower]

The storm literally scrapes the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. If you don't think that's going to cause the storm to weaken a decent amount I'm not really sure what to tell you.

It will but it is moving slow enough to regenerate in the FL Straits.

Can this argument be moved to the Discussion page, please?

It is directly discussing the model output and its implications. Why?

[RL3AO]

UKMET narrowly misses HAITI

What are the chances Irma pulls an Ike and gets into the GOM?

Those odds seem to be increasing each run, although they remain rather low.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just the fact that the GFS model run ends at 174 hours tell me alone not to trust it.........Not gonna happen........

[Aric Dunn]

1st order of business is to see how much the Euro and HWRF follow the Uk and JMA tonight. At least these two model should show more realistic results after significant land interaction with the islands. Next, will be to see when these shifts south stabilize.

As for GFS .. well, what can you say? It's the model that everyone seems to want to follow, but it's results are too bizarre.

Put it this way - if HWRF and Euro tonight bury themselves south into Cuba (as i expect to happen) what would you believe? The Euro/UK/HWRF/JMA alliance? Or the GFS freakshow?

actually first order of business is getting past the wsw to west motion... a lot of this could change if it just turns wnw now.. or stays WSW.. right now we are just looking at some possible outcomes without any suporrt.. 2 more days..

[MONTEGUT_LA]

I'm going with further West, might even make it into the GoM for the really first time.

Even if it does go into gulf, what happens then? Would it still turn NE and go over Florida, or would it continue west?

Now I'm no professional or scientists but I think the NE turn won't happen until it is well in land, but I think there will be a turn to the NW sometime after the entrance into the GoM. I'm thinking along the Katrina/Rita/Andrew/Lili type of track.

As much as I would love to take one for the team, I say no, no, no. I got damage from All 4 of these storms! Except Katrina was just a little wind.... Them models better start seeing some angels pulling this thing away from everyone and der mama...

We seen this happen more than once. I was only 15 when Andrew destroyed our house with 6ft of water. But I remember watching the news, as it was coming into the gulf.. it was not suppose to come in the gulf. I can name many storms that was not suppose to enter it, but did. Point is things change.. Models are Models just like People are People. That track is going keep moving to the West and East til it is almost go time.

[Steve]

GFS out to 288. Makes the left hook across Tennessee. 10'straight US landfalls. Time to go check on HWRF next. Navgem after then HWRF-P and Euro