ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2361 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:01 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040800
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 07 20170904
075030 1446N 05454W 5047 05811 0305 -025 -333 345024 024 012 001 00
075100 1446N 05452W 5044 05813 0304 -027 -330 343024 025 012 001 00
075130 1447N 05449W 5045 05813 0304 -029 -318 342024 025 010 001 00
075200 1447N 05446W 5046 05812 0304 -030 -177 342022 023 011 000 00
075230 1448N 05444W 5047 05811 0304 -029 -239 341020 020 012 001 00
075300 1449N 05441W 5045 05812 0304 -033 -198 336020 021 010 000 00
075330 1449N 05438W 5046 05810 0304 -034 -195 337022 023 012 001 00
075400 1450N 05436W 5046 05811 0304 -038 -259 340024 024 012 001 00
075430 1450N 05433W 5046 05811 0304 -038 -253 340023 024 009 001 00
075500 1451N 05431W 5045 05812 0303 -041 -231 340024 024 013 000 00
075530 1452N 05428W 5047 05808 0302 -040 -224 334022 023 011 001 00
075600 1452N 05425W 5045 05811 0302 -036 -246 333020 021 012 000 00
075630 1453N 05423W 5044 05812 0303 -035 -309 343021 022 011 001 00
075700 1454N 05420W 5043 05815 0303 -031 -327 346023 024 012 000 00
075730 1454N 05417W 5045 05811 0303 -032 -335 347024 024 012 000 00
075800 1455N 05415W 5044 05812 0302 -032 -317 348025 025 009 001 00
075830 1455N 05412W 5045 05809 0301 -032 -308 347025 025 011 001 00
075900 1456N 05409W 5045 05810 0301 -034 -280 348025 026 009 001 00
075930 1457N 05407W 5044 05811 0301 -043 -216 354026 026 011 000 00
080000 1457N 05404W 5046 05806 0300 -041 -161 352025 025 011 001 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2362 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:02 am

Latest models' runs woke me up early today, not surprising unfortunately.
Like I've been saying for the past few days we needed the trough to swing offshore of the Carolinas so that it would weaken the Bermuda ridge.
Odds of a US landfall is rising by the minute but I'm sure the models will continue to shift either way until we get closer in time.
The best thing that could happen at this time is for Wilma to track over the Grester Antilles so that would loose some strength before possibly striking the US, but I don't mean to wish it on them.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2363 Postby fd122 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:04 am

Looks like we might get a near direct hit here in Antigua. Hopefully nothing like Luis in 1995!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2364 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:04 am

from a couple hours ago when it first started deepening.. pretty amazing how fast this is happening.. Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2365 Postby FLeastcoast » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:10 am

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
FLeastcoast wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Though most Floridians have heard the mantra "have a hurricane plan", most do not. Understandably, many people might be new to the state and realize the potential risk nor fully grasp the level of discomfort that occurs following the effects of a hurricane (let along the potential impact and damage caused by a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane). My recommendation right now, for those living in South or Central Florida and if planning to "stay put" in their home should Irma make landfall or closely approach..... calmly make some phone calls and upon finding stores well stocked with water, batteries, extra cell phone battery bank/chargers, etc - go buy these items as if you were told that the risk is imminent. It may not be convenient to go out and buy first aid supplies, surplus canned foods, baby supplies, gas in gas tanks, cash on hand (since ATM machines will not work without electric), water, etc. but that is what having a plan is all about. Furthermore, the last thing one wants is to feel trapped with a hurricane fast bearing down but without ample supplies to last at least a week. Being in that position with small children only results in a tremendous around of greater stress and obviously that much greater risk.


I am in the same situation with 3 young children who also have some special needs and I have 3 big dogs. I am terrified. I want to just leave FL but can't even figure out where to even go. This storm is all over the place and Harvey flooded half of my choices and there are fires to the west and potential Irma damage to the east states. I am completely freaking out. I have been through hurricanes, but I was never the "decision maker" I hate this so so much. GA seems too close..CA is on fire. I hate waiting till the last minute but I guess I have to without knowing a better idea of the path. uugh


You're thinking of evacuating all the way to California? Isn't that going to be...difficult?
When I evacuated from the Texas Gulf Coast, I always went to San Antonio. I'm pretty sure you don't have to go *that* far inland.


lol I hear ya. I KNOW how it sounds. But peace of mind wins over easy every single time for me. I am definitely scared out of my mind (and have barely slept in at least 2 days) and there is no freaking way that I am going to put myself in any position to have to choose which of my children or animals that I have to save from something like drowning. Texas was the end for me. After watching that. I am done..never riding out any big storm again. That situation is so awful. I am leaving if it still looks like a hit down the middle of FL in a couple of days. That is 100% for sure. Probably not as far as CA though. lol ;)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2366 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:11 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040810
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 08 20170904
080030 1458N 05401W 5043 05809 0298 -044 -144 353026 027 010 001 00
080100 1459N 05359W 5048 05802 0297 -040 -159 350027 028 010 001 00
080130 1500N 05357W 5045 05805 0297 -038 -153 348026 027 011 001 00
080200 1501N 05354W 5047 05802 0296 -036 -160 344024 024 009 001 00
080230 1503N 05352W 5046 05802 0296 -038 -123 344024 024 014 000 00
080300 1504N 05350W 5045 05804 0295 -040 -091 345025 025 013 001 00
080330 1505N 05348W 5045 05803 0295 -036 -083 346025 026 010 001 00
080400 1507N 05345W 5044 05803 0294 -034 -093 343025 025 012 001 00
080430 1508N 05343W 5046 05800 0293 -031 -092 340025 025 012 001 00
080500 1509N 05341W 5046 05800 0292 -031 -092 336026 026 014 000 00
080530 1511N 05338W 5046 05798 0291 -027 -099 335027 027 015 000 00
080600 1512N 05336W 5045 05798 0290 -024 -104 333027 027 017 000 00
080630 1513N 05334W 5045 05797 0289 -023 -110 333028 029 018 000 00
080700 1514N 05331W 5043 05798 0288 -027 -097 338030 031 016 001 00
080730 1516N 05329W 5045 05796 0288 -026 -089 335031 033 017 001 00
080800 1517N 05327W 5045 05793 0286 -021 -103 329030 031 018 001 00
080830 1518N 05324W 5047 05792 0286 -022 -104 326029 030 017 001 00
080900 1520N 05322W 5047 05790 0285 -026 -102 325029 030 016 001 00
080930 1521N 05319W 5046 05791 0284 -022 -105 322029 029 019 000 00
081000 1522N 05317W 5045 05791 0282 -026 -101 327032 033 019 001 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2367 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:14 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2368 Postby cfltrib » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:17 am

FLeastcoast wrote:
cfltrib wrote:Except for the Everglades and Keys, 20 - 25 miles inland in a well-built shelter should be safe up to a Cat 4 hurricane at landfall - if not in a flood-prone area. Cat 3 at landfall would move that zone to west of I-95, generally speaking. This is just my opinion based on living in central Fla since childhood in the late 50's. If you feel your location is safe enough to ride it out where you are, be sure to fill any container (tubs, sinks, washer, trash cans, etc.) with water to flush toilets and hand wash clothes, if needed. Have a week's worth of non-refrigerated food on hand (canned soups and stews, crackers, fruit, etc.) and something to heat food. You can use a 3" piece of mosquito coil, burned prior to entering a bedroom to keep that room mosquito free for the night.



but have we ever had one this big and strong come right up the center of FL before? that is what the GFS looked like it thought it might do.


I was a child when Donna's eye passed over us in '60, and experienced the eye of Charlie in '04. Generally, hurricanes decrease in intensity fairly quickly once over dry land. Both Donna and Charlie decreased in strength by about 25-30% by the time they reached the Orlando area. Still dangerous, but not enough wind to destroy well built houses. Trees and tree limbs can still be an issue.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2369 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:18 am

The guidance keeps nudging W and until it stops I don't think you can rule out Irma into the GOM... JMHO
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2370 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:21 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040820
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 09 20170904
081030 1523N 05315W 5046 05787 0280 -030 -097 327033 033 021 002 03
081100 1524N 05312W 5047 05786 0279 -033 -085 329033 033 019 002 00
081130 1524N 05309W 5046 05785 0278 -031 -090 326034 035 019 002 00
081200 1525N 05306W 5046 05784 0277 -029 -089 322035 035 018 001 00
081230 1525N 05304W 5046 05784 0277 -034 -089 318034 034 020 001 00
081300 1526N 05301W 5045 05785 0277 -030 -089 317036 036 020 001 00
081330 1526N 05258W 5047 05782 0276 -033 -088 314033 034 021 001 00
081400 1527N 05255W 5046 05782 0275 -037 -114 311032 033 022 001 00
081430 1527N 05252W 5046 05782 0274 -038 -171 313034 034 021 001 00
081500 1528N 05249W 5046 05781 0274 -039 -157 310032 033 024 001 00
081530 1528N 05247W 5046 05778 0273 -042 -152 312035 036 024 001 00
081600 1528N 05244W 5045 05779 0271 -041 -142 309035 036 025 001 00
081630 1528N 05241W 5045 05779 0270 -039 -146 306036 036 023 001 00
081700 1528N 05238W 5044 05778 0270 -036 -139 304036 037 024 001 00
081730 1528N 05235W 5046 05777 0270 -034 -146 298036 036 025 001 00
081800 1528N 05232W 5045 05777 0269 -034 -148 292036 036 025 001 00
081830 1528N 05229W 5046 05775 0268 -032 -148 289036 036 025 001 00
081900 1528N 05226W 5051 05763 0264 -031 -149 288037 037 022 002 00
081930 1528N 05223W 5051 05761 0262 -031 -143 289038 038 022 001 00
082000 1528N 05220W 5053 05759 0262 -030 -145 288038 039 026 001 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2371 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:25 am

Storm tracking life so much easier when there is an eye... 8-)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2372 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:29 am

It has a fairly good structure this morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2373 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:32 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040830
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 10 20170904
082030 1528N 05218W 5051 05761 0262 -030 -143 287040 041 025 002 00
082100 1528N 05215W 5044 05768 0260 -030 -148 287040 041 027 001 00
082130 1528N 05212W 5114 05659 0252 -024 -123 288040 040 027 001 00
082200 1528N 05209W 5232 05477 0239 -023 -076 286038 039 026 001 00
082230 1528N 05207W 5350 05300 0227 -015 -048 282037 038 027 001 00
082300 1528N 05204W 5475 05115 0215 -007 -061 271037 038 025 001 00
082330 1528N 05201W 5609 04920 0006 +007 -052 270039 040 026 001 00
082400 1528N 05159W 5723 04757 0022 +008 -034 274041 042 028 001 00
082430 1528N 05156W 5831 04607 0028 +014 -023 277040 040 026 002 00
082500 1528N 05154W 5934 04464 0038 +018 -029 273038 039 028 001 00
082530 1528N 05151W 6041 04319 0031 +032 -023 269037 037 030 002 00
082600 1528N 05148W 6148 04176 0029 +041 -005 264038 039 028 002 00
082630 1527N 05146W 6253 04039 0036 +044 +025 260036 037 023 002 00
082700 1527N 05143W 6359 03905 0044 +049 +014 263036 036 023 002 00
082730 1527N 05141W 6458 03779 0037 +062 +017 258035 035 023 002 00
082800 1527N 05139W 6546 03669 0043 +066 +023 251032 032 023 001 00
082830 1526N 05136W 6637 03556 0040 +075 +029 246032 032 024 001 00
082900 1526N 05134W 6743 03423 0035 +086 +039 243032 033 026 001 00
082930 1526N 05131W 6856 03286 0033 +097 +042 251032 032 023 002 00
083000 1526N 05129W 6948 03177 0035 +104 +046 247032 032 022 001 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2374 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:34 am

really does recon have to go around to the other side.. lol i need to sleep lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2375 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:36 am

much much radar presentation..

should be a cat 4 soon

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-2-.kmz
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2376 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:42 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040840
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 11 20170904
083030 1525N 05127W 7028 03082 0035 +108 +060 243031 032 020 001 00
083100 1525N 05124W 7061 03043 0037 +109 +083 240034 035 021 001 00
083130 1525N 05122W 7122 02974 0037 +114 +085 235034 035 022 001 00
083200 1525N 05120W 7033 03075 0034 +114 +076 238034 034 025 002 00
083230 1525N 05117W 7000 03119 0040 +109 +069 234033 034 026 002 03
083300 1524N 05115W 6988 03133 0050 +100 +061 224031 031 023 001 00
083330 1524N 05113W 7076 03031 0051 +104 +072 222032 032 023 001 00
083400 1523N 05110W 7080 03027 0049 +109 +078 220030 031 023 001 00
083430 1522N 05108W 7081 03028 0051 +109 +068 216029 030 024 001 03
083500 1523N 05106W 7081 03027 0051 +108 +075 216031 031 026 001 00
083530 1524N 05104W 7080 03028 0051 +108 +075 214031 031 027 002 00
083600 1525N 05102W 7081 03028 0049 +110 +079 215031 031 029 001 00
083630 1527N 05100W 7081 03028 0048 +111 +075 213031 031 029 001 00
083700 1528N 05058W 7080 03030 0047 +112 +078 209029 029 029 001 00
083730 1529N 05056W 7081 03028 0046 +114 +067 205029 029 027 002 00
083800 1530N 05054W 7079 03031 0045 +115 +070 203029 029 026 001 00
083830 1531N 05051W 7081 03030 0046 +114 +073 203028 029 026 000 00
083900 1532N 05049W 7080 03031 0043 +117 +070 202028 029 024 001 00
083930 1534N 05048W 7081 03025 0039 +119 +065 198029 030 026 000 03
084000 1536N 05049W 7081 03027 0045 +113 +067 200030 030 024 000 03
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2377 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:45 am

Image

Irma's eye is clearing out but IMO she still needs a better outflow pattern to get a double digit positive eye temp.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2378 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:51 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040850
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 12 20170904
084030 1538N 05050W 7081 03024 0045 +112 +076 196030 030 023 001 00
084100 1540N 05052W 7081 03026 0045 +111 +074 197032 033 026 000 00
084130 1542N 05053W 7093 03009 0044 +111 +073 194033 033 027 001 00
084200 1544N 05054W 7095 03003 0042 +109 +076 194034 035 027 001 00
084230 1546N 05055W 7093 03004 0047 +104 +083 196035 035 026 002 00
084300 1548N 05057W 7088 03012 0054 +099 +086 195035 036 028 003 00
084330 1550N 05058W 7081 03017 0047 +103 +084 196034 035 028 005 00
084400 1551N 05100W 7075 03026 0043 +104 +092 200033 035 027 001 00
084430 1553N 05101W 7085 03010 0041 +105 +085 204035 036 029 001 00
084500 1554N 05103W 7107 02985 0029 +113 +090 208040 041 029 001 00
084530 1555N 05105W 7081 03013 0031 +111 +082 210039 040 030 001 00
084600 1557N 05107W 7081 03012 0032 +110 +069 211039 039 030 001 00
084630 1558N 05108W 7080 03012 0029 +113 +057 213039 041 030 002 00
084700 1559N 05110W 7077 03013 0028 +112 +049 208041 042 031 001 00
084730 1601N 05112W 7081 03007 0029 +109 +050 208043 044 032 002 00
084800 1602N 05113W 7079 03007 0032 +104 +057 206045 046 032 003 00
084830 1604N 05115W 7078 03003 0032 +100 +063 206046 047 033 003 00
084900 1605N 05117W 7080 02998 0025 +102 +067 210049 050 034 005 00
084930 1606N 05118W 7076 02995 0022 +099 +067 214052 054 033 007 00
085000 1608N 05120W 7081 02989 0028 +091 +069 212054 055 034 007 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2379 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:52 am

Why on gods green earth would recon want to go around the storm and hold up the advisory? The northeast quad would be the strongest, wouldn't it?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2380 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:59 am

Advisory and discussion is already out:

Image

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040854
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

Irma's signature in infrared satellite images has been improving
over the past few hours. An eye has appeared and is warming, and
the central dense overcast has become more symmetric. Although the
satellite presentation is better than when a NOAA plane
investigated Irma last evening, the initial intensity will be held
at 100 kt for now. Another NOAA P3 aircraft is just now beginning
to sample the hurricane and should provide an updated intensity
estimate during the next few hours.

A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the
initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt. Irma will begin
rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours. Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida. As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period. Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.

All environmental factors suggest that Irma will at least maintain
its intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period, if not
strengthen gradually. Oceanic heat content values increase along
Irma's forecast path, mid-level moisture will be more abundant, and
vertical shear appears to be generally low. As a result, the NHC
intensity forecast continues to call for gradual intensification
through at least 72 hours, with a possibility for some slight
weakening by days 4 and 5 (but still as a major hurricane). As with
any major hurricane, Irma's intensity may fluctuate around these
forecast intensities, but the overall trend is for a gradual
increase of the maximum winds, assuming Irma's core does not move
over any of the islands in the Greater Antilles.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Last edited by USTropics on Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:02 am, edited 3 times in total.
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