ATL: IRMA - Models

[SFLcane]

In a nutshell threat continues to increase for sfl back to bed now.

[northjaxpro]

Actually, if you look very carefully, it looks like IRMA goes back over Cuba directly out of the Caribbean before the run shows Irma going right over Key West and then up across and over South Florida, moving due north. A very interesting 06Z GFS run. Irma actually briefly emerges into the Caribbean Sea. That is a very significant southwest shift shown by the models for Irma

[xtyphooncyclonex]

12z would probs be basically GFS now for Euro and the Panhandle for GFS

[Hurricaneman]

Key West then to Naples on this run, its westward shift continues like I said before.

When and where do you see the westward shifts ending?

Pensacola on Tuesday but that's the farthest west I see, we might have small east shifts from there, I'm not so comfortable looking at these model runs and will be preparing here in Clermont Fl for such an occasion

[NDG]

Key West then to Naples on this run, its westward shift continues like I said before.

When and where do you see the westward shifts ending?

Is anybody's guess at this time. To me is not good for FL the westward shifts if they continue because I'm sure at one point the models will start shifting east like they usually do.
6-7 days out, still a long ways for things to change. Hopefully by tomorrow if not Wednesday we will know what part of the US it will be impacting which now looks to be a definite possibility since all models agree on a wnw track from days 3-5.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET run:

[Frank2]

A pro-met opinion on model accuracy one week out (note last sentence): https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are- ... a-week-out

[northjaxpro]

The 06Z run is the worst possible scenario you could draw up for the entire Florida peninsula. WOW!!! This would be devastating for the entire peninsula if the 6Z run verifies exactly one week from now!

[tolakram]

I can't believe the trend I'm seeing.

0Z Euro


0Z GFS


6z GFS

[NDG]

A pro-met opinion on model accuracy one week out (note last sentence): https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are- ... a-week-out

Yeap, models forecast past 7 days are horrendous, Harvey & Irma are good examples.

[Michele B]

A pro-met opinion on model accuracy one week out (note last sentence): https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are- ... a-week-out

I can agree with this Met's last sentence, but it's also a fact that beyond a certain point some scenarios must be taken off the table. For instance, Once this thing is in the approximate area of the Westward islands, I would think a turn back out to sea would be a virtual impossibility, so some certainties begin to take shape.

I think that we're almost at the point where the certainty is that Irma will impact someone in the CONUS

[brghteys1216]

What is causing the sharp north turn from Cuba? Can someone please explain that to me?

Is it because the ridge gets weakened?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/904656304932835328

[tolakram]

What is causing the sharp north turn from Cuba? Can someone please explain that to me?

Is it because the ridge gets weakened?

Yes, a break in the ridge causes the northward movement. It's still a ways out and the timing of these features is important. As Frank likes to point out, what they are saying now might not even be close to reality.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dont really think a storm traveling over land as portrayed in that track will have a intact
core structure.

[wzrgirl1]

06z GFS basically shifted from I-95 to I-75.

This is right where I live. I hope this changes. I don't want anyone to get this but omg!!

[northjaxpro]

A pro-met opinion on model accuracy one week out (note last sentence): https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are- ... a-week-out

I can agree with this Met's last sentence, but it's also a fact that beyond a certain point some scenarios must be taken off the table. For instance, Once this thing is in the approximate area of the Westward islands, I would think a turn back out to sea would be a virtual impossibility, so some certainties begin to take shape.

I think that we're almost at the point where the certainty is that Irma will impact someone in the CONUS

Well, I am always an optimistic person, but sitting here now looking at the overall synoptic pattern just 7 days from now, the odds are really increasing unfortunately that Irma will impact the Continental United States, on 9/11, just to throw that fact into the mix. What a cruel irony for this to happen anytime, but on that particular day if the models verify. Wow!

[chris_fit]

Well I'll be damned. I have to admin I was not expecting all these W/SW shifts, by all the models, run after run. I really though there was almost no chance of this coming to FL based on facts just 2-3 days ago. My how have this changed. I guess I should stock on some water and other supplies just in case. I'm near the Sarasota area.

[GCANE]

[Michele B]

06z GFS basically shifted from I-95 to I-75.

This is right where I live. I hope this changes. I don't want anyone to get this but omg!!

Ya, that model takes it right over my house, too, so I "feel ya" girl!