ATL: IRMA - Models

[caneman]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Prob should not have asked caneman

Looks like most avoid Dominica and the mountainous region of Cuba although inflow could be disrupted somewhat depending how close. That would be bad news for Florida

[ricka47]

How much of an affect can the interaction with Cuba have on the intensity? Cuba is about 800 miles long and has some mountainous areas. Not wishing her on Cuba (or anyone for that matter), but Irma may be weakened by some of that before she turns northward and there is not much water between Cuba and the southern edge of the peninsula to gain back much strength. Wishful thinking?

[Vdogg]

Almost all UKMET ensembles are taking Irma into Hispaniola and many of them move through the western Carribean south of Cuba. The SW trend continues...

There'd be almost no storm left by the time it reached Florida on that particular path. Runs the length of every island, including mountainous areas.

[caneman]

I think this solution of Carolina landfall makes climatological sense. I think euro will win this one. I'm banking on it. I live on the west coast of Florida.

UKMET and TVCN have been most accurate thus far long range. If you're going to bank on anything in the 6 to 7 day range, I'd bank on those. Good or bad. Anyone have the current spaghetti models they can share? Thanks

that's fine tcvn has south florida to Carolina landfall. not as scary for us nw of Tampa. I'm very vigilantly monitoring this but being 7 days out and living here for most of my life, I'm not freaking out just yet.

I'm with you. Im on Indian Rocks Beach
Just making sure no ChArley type surprises. Where are in Tampa Bay area?

[jlauderdal]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Prob should not have asked caneman

Looks like most avoid Dominica and the mountainous region of Cuba although inflow could be disrupted somewhat depending how close. That would be bad news for Florida

its trending south and west which is good for hurricane disruption...this scenario becomes more likely each hour

[HurricaneFrances04]

UKMET is reminiscent of Hurricane Georges: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ne-Georges

Let's see what the models show tomorrow, once Irma turns toward the WNW. A 100-200 mile difference could have a huge impact on intensity.

[Blown Away]

That TVCN run is 30 miles N of Cuba away from missing land and being an unbelievable event for FL... That spot is very uncomfortable if you live in SFL...

[caneman]

How much of an affect can the interaction with Cuba have on the intensity? Cuba is about 800 miles long and has some mountainous areas. Not wishing her on Cuba (or anyone for that matter), but Irma may be weakened by some of that before she turns northward and there is not much water between Cuba and the southern edge of the peninsula to gain back much strength. Wishful thinking?

Depends, if it goes right over.the mountains, Ive seen total destruction of a system, admittedly weaker systems. If it parallels, I reckon inflow disruption would mean a category or 2 weakening

[CrazyTropics]

Euro has this a 932 turning north aftercuba up FL east coast and hitting central NC 9/12 as 924? I trust Euro

[robbielyn]

UKMET and TVCN have been most accurate thus far long range. If you're going to bank on anything in the 6 to 7 day range, I'd bank on those. Good or bad. Anyone have the current spaghetti models they can share? Thanks

that's fine tcvn has south florida to Carolina landfall. not as scary for us nw of Tampa. I'm very vigilantly monitoring this but being 7 days out and living here for most of my life, I'm not freaking out just yet.

I'm with you. Im on Indian Rocks Beach
Just making sure no ChArley type surprises. Where are in Tampa Bay area?

brooksville spring hill FL in Hernando county.

[gatorcane]

Model consensus still looking very reminiscent of Donna 1960, perhaps a bit more east as it turns toward Florida:

[Vdogg]

It's also looking like the storm has ceased the southerly component of her movement (or is about to), according to recon data. That is key for tracks closer to the islands.

Recon heading was WSW at 255 degrees.

It's heading due west currently on Sat, but it's wobbled like this before. Sometimes goes for long periods before resuming it's southerly component. On it's current heading it'll come in just north of its next forecast point, but it could wobble south and hit it.

[JPmia]

Irma has her choice of which FL coast she'll retire on:

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/904668251447320576

[weathaguyry]

Models consensus still looking very reminiscent of Donna 1960, perhaps a bit more east as it turns toward Florida:

This has probably become the top analog in my mind, and that's not good, would cause widespread damage up and down the east coast

[caneman]

Euro has this a 932 turning north aftercuba up FL east coast and hitting central NC 9/12 as 924? I trust Euro

Normally I'd say that's wise. But TVCN and NHC verification has and usually always is best. Has been tjis far in Irmas case. In fact UKMET best sniffer out this scenario of a most southerly track

[gatorcane]

Euro has this a 932 turning north aftercuba up FL east coast and hitting central NC 9/12 as 924? I trust Euro

Consensus track of the ECMWF and GFS is right through South Florida. But I agree the ECMWF is pretty darn good so would have to lean more towards that model. Go back and look at Euro runs from last week. It will shock you how close it might get to the track we may end up seeing.

[caneman]

Models consensus still looking very reminiscent of Donna 1960, perhaps a bit more east as it turns toward Florida:

This has probably become the top analog in my mind, and that's not good, would cause widespread damage up and down the east coast

The west coast as well since the eye would traverse there

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

i'm part of the tampa bay crew in Clearwater.
getting more concerned now. local news is now starting to cover irma and telling us to ensure we are prepared.
more southern route willdisrupt a bit, and although weakening is good, there is also the broadening effect; the storm will grow larger and end up affecting more people. if it has warm water and time, it will restrengthen, but with a march larger envelope. are any of the models showing that storm resizing?

[caneman]

Models consensus still looking very reminiscent of Donna 1960, perhaps a bit more east as it turns toward Florida:

This has probably become the top analog in my mind, and that's not good, would cause widespread damage up and down the east coast

The west coast as well since the eye would traverse there. From Key West thru Naples and looks Like Ft. MEYERS OR A PORT Charlotte

[gatorcane]

NASA 00Z turns a strong Irma north into South Florida: