ATL: IRMA - Models

[robbielyn]

I can share what happened to me with Charley. I evacuated since Charley was forecast to hit just about where I live near indian rocks beach. The problem is that it turned at the last minute to where i had evacuated to in Kissimmee so i was right into where the eye went. We had 105 mile per hour winds. I wouldnt make any decisions yet until wed. Inside of 120 hours is most accurate.

wow u stayed in Kissimmee huh? I'm not doing anything til Wednesday. feeling safe for now.wait and see mode.

Yeah, we were a family of 6 and fully committed. Wasn't much we could do at that point. My heart sank that morning when I saw the last minute turn. No one thought it would be that bad but moving at 22 mph hour, it didnt weaken much. It was Charley that made forecasters become away that Hurricanes depending of forward speed can have damaging effects inland. Our hotel flooded from the sideways rain getting in cracks and crevices, lost power, transformers were blowing, a heavy wrought iron fence out our window was violently shaking. The tourist were terrified. It was pitch black. At one point I couldn't find my mom. We eventually found her hiding in the tub. Lol

Oh wow that was awful. I saw the damage off 192 I had a convention there a week later at the silver spurs arena. Back home we had blue skies and sunshine. Irma models look frightening for sure but it's day 7 so not set in stone at all and if it was, hopefully islands would shred it.

[stormreader]

Irma has her choice of which FL coast she'll retire on:

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/904668251447320576

Oh yes! Was mulling over last night about how exactly to update my "Irma window" or prediction. West coast of Fl kept coming to mind. Gonna give it just a little more time. Staying with original window just a little longer (from several days ago)--Cape Fear North Carolina to North Coast of Cuba.

[robbielyn]

not to jinx it but at least we don't have a forecast of 50 inches of rain sandwiched between to highs. although since we are below sea level that really don't make much difference does it?

[FireBird]

Thanks everyone for your very helpful feedback. It adds weight to our decision. Still hoping for the best for everyone....

[blp]

Amazing how after the recon data the models became quite consistent with the track. Did they send the Gulfstream jet to sample the surrounding atmosphere or just the storm? If they did not sample the surrounding atmosphere then how did the modeled steering in the mid range change so much?

[ronjon]

:uarrow: so glad I live in West Central Florida!! may this pan out. sorry se coasters but Irma intent on you guys no matter what model we are looking at. but this would be very good for us over here and makes the most sense. right where I live thank goodness we don't get too much. our county spent millions on a deflector shield lol. Good thing too costing so much. They go south of us or north of us. Even Hermine didn't do much here in Hernando county. but like they say, it's not a matter of if but when.

Most people in Hernando Beach would disagree with you on Hermine. Everyone with single story homes got 2-3 feet of putrid GOM water in their homes. They lost all their belongings and had to gut the drywall. My house is builtup with extra fill and I still got 5 inches of water in my garage. All this from a minimal CAT 1 storm.

[Janie2006]

Another significant shift west.....where have I seen this before? Ivan....Starting to think Irma might make it to the GOM.......MGC

Certainly possible, but that's a strong continental ridge moving all the way to the Coast by the latter half of the week. Not *unusually* cold, but certainly cool weather for a Mississippi September (hey, some indications are that upper 50s could be in store just north of the coastline) by that point. So, that factor being in play it's kinda hard at the moment to see Irma as a GOMer. Perhaps the extreme eastern Gulf?

[ObsessedMiami]

Amazing how after the recon data the models became quite consistent with the track. Did they send the Gulfstream jet to sample the surrounding atmosphere or just the storm? If they did not sample the surrounding atmosphere then how did the modeled steering in the mid range change so much?

I thought I had read last night that the 0z GFS had some Gulfstream data in it for at least the ridging closer to the Islands. Could be wrong and forgive if so. The 0Z was rolling in so everyone was in hysterics then

[invest man]

06z GFS ensemble tracks:

Just waking up, after a brief look at Euro and quick post early this morning. Look at the relatively few members of the ensemble that are now E of Fl. Posted a couple of days ago that I thought those who were dismissive of a GOM entry were very premature.

I got up early to check some model runs and saw the ensembles along with NHC had moved toward Cuba. Went back to bed and now seeing the Gfs no longer has a target on us in NC. Just now looked at Euro and now it has a target on us. Wow the swings of these models! Can anything be really trusted beyond 3 days? I know these models are for guidance and there errors are greater with time. However does anyone with any skill in judging these models think any of them are correct and if so which one and why? Thank, IM

[La Sirena]

Irma has her choice of which FL coast she'll retire on:

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/904668251447320576

Oh yes! Was mulling over last night about how exactly to update my "Irma window" or prediction. West coast of Fl kept coming to mind. Gonna give it just a little more time. Staying with original window just a little longer (from several days ago)--Cape Fear North Carolina to North Coast of Cuba.

I've followed your posts with the north coast of Cuba window and you've nailed that lol. While the future tracks are ever changing I definitely think you are on to something here.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Just my opinion. But the models will change when more data can be inputed into models.Forgot the name of the plane that samples upper air patterns to its north and west. Cone will change. Just like it did last night.

[meriland29]

I am having a really bad feeling of this going into the gulf now as per GFS and Euro trends. I literally saw 06z this morning and actually said "oh wow...woah". At the same time, it looks like in that event it just may pass over those mountains, tearing it apart some. Opinions? Kinda curious..

[Janie2006]

I got up early to check some model runs and saw the ensembles along with NHC had moved toward Cuba. Went back to bed and now seeing the Gfs no longer has a target on us in NC. Just now looked at Euro and now it has a target on us. Wow the swings of these models! Can anything be really trusted beyond 3 days? I know these models are for guidance and there errors are greater with time. However does anyone with any skill in judging these models think any of them are correct and if so which one and why? Thank, IM

This is a complicated subject that requires far more writing than I have in me at the moment. It's early, where's my coffee?

One thing to look for is consistency over time. How does a model perform over the course of a season? And keep in mind that all models have their biases. Some models aren't tropical models, but are good for other things especially as a storm approaches the coast.

Models such as GFS and Euro are tropical models, but again some models have been performing better than others. There is a reason that it's called King Euro, for instance.

[stormreader]

06z GFS ensemble tracks:

Just waking up, after a brief look at Euro and quick post early this morning. Look at the relatively few members of the ensemble that are now E of Fl. Posted a couple of days ago that I thought those who were dismissive of a GOM entry were very premature.

I got up early to check some model runs and saw the ensembles along with NHC had moved toward Cuba. Went back to bed and now seeing the Gfs no longer has a target on us in NC. Just now looked at Euro and now it has a target on us. Wow the swings of these models! Can anything be really trusted beyond 3 days? I know these models are for guidance and there errors are greater with time. However does anyone with any skill in judging these models think any of them are correct and if so which one and why? Thank, IM

Its an evolving forecast. No other way to put it. But you're right, at 3 days it really becomes more certain. Just have to be patient. Trying to forecast if, when, where, and at what angle storms might take when they recurve is very difficult. The slightest difference can be make so much difference to points along the coast.

[RL3AO]

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0324Z MON SEP 04 2017

The 00Z GFS is running on time. In addition to the normal
complement of 00Z raobs...10 dropsonde observations were
available courtesy of NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the
vicinity of Irma.

Special 6-hourly soundings are requested from the following sites
starting at 18Z Monday: BIS, UNR, LBF, DDC, AMA, ABR, OAX, TOP,
OUN, INL, MPX, SGF, LZK, DVN, ILX, GRB, APX, DTX, ILN, OHX, and
SJU.

Handel/SDM/NCO/NCEP

4x daily balloon launches at most central US NWS offices starting this afternoon.

[SoupBone]

What the hell happened overnight with the GFS and Euro? How did the Euro become the Eastern outlier?

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904647775194935296

[weathermimmi]

Have myself in Destin Florida, and college kids in Orlando & Savannah Georgia so I'm keeping a close eye. last night there was a good discussion on the high over Montana ara and depending on where and what it did the steering currents will change dramatically. Any updates on those?

PS some stores have limited water as we have been buying as a community for donations to take to texas, so supplies in the Panhandle have been limited on some things

[meriland29]

even the CMC is in thsi trend.. wow

[plasticup]

What the hell happened overnight with the GFS and Euro? How did the Euro become the Eastern outlier?

That trough was always a borderline feature, just deep enough to pull Irma up. And now it misses.

Also, this is what happens when the hurricane hunters deploy: the models start to cluster once they have real data.