ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Michele B
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2521 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:25 am

HurricaneEric wrote:I really do think this will be a SoFla event unfortunately. Not based on anything concrete of course, but I just feel like our luck has really run out.

Anyways, I'm already (as many in Miami) preparing supply-wise just in case. Flashlights, water, batteries, etc. My thinking is that if Miami is under the gun with a consensus from the models by Wednesday (as a Cat 4 or 5 landfalling), I'm sitting down with my family and starting to pack important things and figuring out where to evacuate to. Then Thursday/Friday would be the time to leave (after making sure everything at our place is secure). Not sure if that would be too late though...



As far south as you are, yeah, you'd want to leave earlier if you are determined to do so. Thursday, I'd say. As soon as the local ProMets start "warning" people that they may want to think about voluntary evacs, EVERYONE will hits the roads!

Try to stay off the main routes, too. Maybe think about going out to 27 and up, or the 'pike, or even 441 up and over to Okeechobee, then jump on up to 27. I'd stay as far AWAY from Interstates as possible, as that's where most everyone else will figure to make good time, but if 3 million people try to do that, you're not going anywhere!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2522 Postby hohnywx » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:26 am

Pressure dropping like a rock right now...

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904696903627104257


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2523 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:27 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm not liking the westward trend. Could well hit south FL and then the Carolinas. Difficult to tell where the north turn will occur. Eastern Gulf not out of the picture.


Do you think that the threat to the Mid-Atlantic/ Northeast has significantly decreased, or do you think it may be possible for this to have a Donna like track and ride up the East Coast?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2524 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:27 am

hohnywx wrote:Pressure dropping like a rock right now...

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904696903627104257




Winds will probably start to increase soon too
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2525 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:28 am

Irma is clearly going through an eyewall replacement cycle. The secondary eyewall is evident on radar and flight-level winds:

Image

The impressive part about this EWRC is that the central pressure continues to drop, similar to Hurricane Harvey.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2526 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:28 am

9:13:42am EDT:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2527 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:29 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2528 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:30 am

1900hurricane wrote:Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

Image

Isn't that norm for this storm? It seems like she is constantly undergoing an ERC. Why is she never happy with the one she has? Just like a woman - never happy with her current interior decor and always trying something new, and can't make up her mind,lol! :P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2529 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:32 am

Image
Tracks of hurricanes passing near the NHC's 96 hour day position of 21N/72W... All options on table but the angle from here suggests between Miami/Straits...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2530 Postby Jimsot » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:33 am

Those are just stunning pictures. Amazing technology. We spoke to friends on Anguilla this morning. Everyone gets it and are ready. Historically it's interesting that everyone is talking about a 'Donna' track. That is the storm in 1960 that finally convinced Anguillians to switch to concrete houses and no more stick built. I was in a NYC school watching the storm outside as Donna passed across Long Island. I had never heard of Anguilla, but many years later I would build a house there and stay for 10 years. I don't even know why I am recounting all this, I guess I am uptight for everyone down there.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2531 Postby robbielyn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:35 am

otowntiger wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

Image

Isn't that norm for this storm? It seems like she is constantly undergoing an ERC. Why is she never happy with the one she has? Just like a woman - never happy with her current interior decor and always trying something new, and can't make up her mind,lol! :P

hey I resemble that comment lol and changing our minds is our prerogative. :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2532 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:39 am

RL3AO wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.



I wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes its first run at a strong cat 4 or cat 5 after this EWRC.

Yeah, but what about the next EWRC? She's bound to decide to do another one just before she starts taking off. It seems that the EWRC's are continual. All kidding aside, is that frequency normal?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2533 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:39 am

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2534 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:43 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

Very strong words from Norcross, but we are a day or so from that crucial timeframe, can't blame him.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2535 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:46 am

Michele B wrote:
HurricaneEric wrote:I really do think this will be a SoFla event unfortunately. Not based on anything concrete of course, but I just feel like our luck has really run out.

Anyways, I'm already (as many in Miami) preparing supply-wise just in case. Flashlights, water, batteries, etc. My thinking is that if Miami is under the gun with a consensus from the models by Wednesday (as a Cat 4 or 5 landfalling), I'm sitting down with my family and starting to pack important things and figuring out where to evacuate to. Then Thursday/Friday would be the time to leave (after making sure everything at our place is secure). Not sure if that would be too late though...



As far south as you are, yeah, you'd want to leave earlier if you are determined to do so. Thursday, I'd say. As soon as the local ProMets start "warning" people that they may want to think about voluntary evacs, EVERYONE will hits the roads!

Try to stay off the main routes, too. Maybe think about going out to 27 and up, or the 'pike, or even 441 up and over to Okeechobee, then jump on up to 27. I'd stay as far AWAY from Interstates as possible, as that's where most everyone else will figure to make good time, but if 3 million people try to do that, you're not going anywhere!


Haha! I just had a convo 5 minutes ago with my family and we all agreed 27 would be what we take outta here. Appreciate the advice!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2536 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:47 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."


And if you've ever been around Miami 2-3 days before a storm is projected to hit, frenzy is not a strong enough word. Godspeed to all my friends in the islands, batten down and I pray you're okay.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2537 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:47 am

Image
Irma moving a wobbly due W hugging along S side of 17N... NHC has Irma down to 16.6 before making WNW turn over next 24 hours... It seems now the faster Irma moves W the farther W she makes it before this modeled turn??? Wow, these little subtle differences seem to have big impacts...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#2538 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:48 am

Do the Hurricane Hunters have a secondary Caribbean location to fly out of if (when) St. Croix can't be flown out of.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2539 Postby curtadams » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:49 am

Minus the sexist reference, Irma has been going through near-constant eyewall replacement cycles, with each new eye lasting only a few hours tops before some new asymmetry obscures it. Several of the "monster majors" have had constant multiple wind maxima (IIRC Katrina had 3 as she was coming in) so multiple eyewalls is just a feature of some strong storms these days and perhaps Irma is one of them. If so, that will reduce the intensity of her worst winds a bit although it won't help with surge or rain.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2540 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:49 am

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