ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[knotimpaired]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

What are your plans? Are the homes built to withstand high winds? Are there enough boats to evacuate? Do you personally have a plan for this scenario?

We have one boat servicing the island and I believe that one holds around 400 people. They are trying to get tourists off the island so they are having first priority but we do not have many of them.

We plan on staying home. Our 2nd floor is wooden but since Hugo destroyed 80% of the homes on the island, FEMA insisted they rebuild in concrete. Our home was built after Hugo, in 1998 but not by us. So about 80% of the homes are concrete but there also is a problem with many of them. When they rebuilt after Hugo, many of the contractors used beach sand for the concrete. So if any of you are contractors you know what that means.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I'm in the Cocoa area about 2 miles from the coast and I have two small kids. No idea if I should evacuate out of Florida or stay put. I guess time will give us a clearer answer but on Thursday/Friday everything might be a parking lot.

Hi, Neighbor - Answering your question depends on so many different factors, but in my experience, evacuating completely out of FL is not necessary (reasons below).

You say you are "in the Cocoa area about 2 miles from the coast", does that mean Merritt Island? I'm in Cape Canaveral and, for a Cat 3/4/5 all of the barrier islands and Merritt Island would be told to evacuate, but that means go to a sturdy building away from rivers/lakes on the mainland (Cocoa or the Orlando area). My 3-generation family rode out Frances at the Holiday Inn Express & Suites Cocoa and I would definitely stay there again. It was built in 2004 to FL Hurricane standards and we could barely hear the days of Frances' unrelenting wind and rain. For Jeanne, we went to Orlando and stayed at the AmeriSuites (now a Country Inn & Suites) on Forbes; also a place I would consider staying again. To ease the anxiety prior to the storm (like where we are now), I book rooms in a hotel that allows no-fee cancellation if done by 4 PM of check-in day (over the years, I have cancelled more rooms than I've stayed in because storm paths changed). For crazy Matthew last year, I booked a VRBO home in East Orlando and it was FANTASTIC. The owner summers in NY so was glad that I was there watching his home and giving him reports.

Here are the reasons that I discourage people to not go crazy and drive to other states (and, yes, I have friends and a few family members that still do this):

(1) You are adding to the clogged N/S highways (i.e., I-95) that are already filled with others fleeing out of state. That increases the chance that you may ride out the storm in your vehicle!
(2) You are guaranteed a very long trip home as everyone starts returning to FL at the same time.
(3) Because of that, gas stations quickly run out of fuel, Interstate restaurants have lines into the parking lots, you may hit flooded out parts of the roads and detours, and traffic crawls at a slow pace. This year, we are already at a disadvantage with gas because of the rig/refinery closures in Texas and prices are soaring. Already up from $2.03 to $2.62 (gal) in my area.
(4) Before I get slammed by others here: My recommendations DO NOT apply to areas that are going to get a "head on" strike. Yes, I know that Andrew flattened Homestead for many miles inland and Charley tore his way through Florida -- but both were head-on strikes from the east or west.

Bottom line, listen to the officials, do whatever you must to make you feel safe, but don't overly stress yourself by panicking.

Here is the official FL government map of evacuation zones: http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm


Information based on five generations of my family enduring tropical weather on the FL East Coast since 1955.

[eastcoastFL]

Do they just have her own version of the cone?

Yeah. I think they use the same cone (which is absurdly large) for every basin in the world, but the forecast track and wind size is all NHC.

Their forecast cone also varies with the wind radii. A larger wind field will result in a larger cone.

That makes a lot more sense. Especially since Irma is forecast to have a rather large windfield.

[eastcoastFL]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

What are your plans? Are the homes built to withstand high winds? Are there enough boats to evacuate? Do you personally have a plan for this scenario?

We have one boat servicing the island and I believe that one holds around 400 people. They are trying to get tourists off the island so they are having first priority but we do not have many of them.

We plan on staying home. Our 2nd floor is wooden but since Hugo destroyed 80% of the homes on the island, FEMA insisted they rebuild in concrete. Our home was built after Hugo, in 1998 but not by us. So about 80% of the homes are concrete but there also is a problem with many of them. When they rebuilt after Hugo, many of the contractors used beach sand for the concrete. So if any of you are contractors you know what that means.

Beach sand?? Is that even legal?

[knotimpaired]

not trying to sound rude but if you know you are on a island why would you have shelters that can't even fit half the population? do they expect you to evacuate?

That is the question I have asked the Mayor. No response.

[knotimpaired]

What are your plans? Are the homes built to withstand high winds? Are there enough boats to evacuate? Do you personally have a plan for this scenario?

We have one boat servicing the island and I believe that one holds around 400 people. They are trying to get tourists off the island so they are having first priority but we do not have many of them.

We plan on staying home. Our 2nd floor is wooden but since Hugo destroyed 80% of the homes on the island, FEMA insisted they rebuild in concrete. Our home was built after Hugo, in 1998 but not by us. So about 80% of the homes are concrete but there also is a problem with many of them. When they rebuilt after Hugo, many of the contractors used beach sand for the concrete. So if any of you are contractors you know what that means.

Beach sand?? Is that even legal?

Nope, you can get a huge fine for it but it is the norm down here. It is free

[PTPatrick]

Agreed, Large scale evacuation of south Florida, esp for a south to north traveling storm isn't sensible. I suspect that there will still be enough track uncertainty that in the 4 days it would take to do it the storm could easily move to where you've evacuated to. Best thing people can do is to shelter inland with family or friends in strong homes, or designated shelters, and be ready for discomfort. We have been hearing this since Floyd yet people still attempt mass evacuation.

[johngaltfla]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

And if you've ever been around Miami 2-3 days before a storm is projected to hit, frenzy is not a strong enough word. Godspeed to all my friends in the islands, batten down and I pray you're okay.

The frenzy might start a bit earlier after Harvey. I also wonder how the water supplies will be at stores. The major retailers like Walmart may have shifted some of their water supplies towards TX. I've always wondered how much their meteorologists impact stuff like that.

A lot. I used to deal with WalMart in the "olden" days. Their pro mets would shift water, canned food, etc. from the Midwest and Northeast DCs to Georgia for Florida storms, and Arkansas for TX/LA storms. I remember our company hauling 30 truckloads of Sam's water to Miami shortly after Andrew. They have their act together so tomorrow I'm sure they will be shifting resources towards Florida now and the DCs in Central and North FL.

[Patrick99]

With regard to Florida evacuations, my understanding is that if you are mIles inland, not in a mobile home, not in a flood zone, it's actually not recommended that you evacuate. There is this misconception that the entirety of SE Florida needs to be evacuated for hurricanes, and that is not the case at all. If that had to happen, that would be logistically impossible.

[Mouton]

12z Guidance...


06z Guidance...

TVCN did shift slightly N near Cuba and E near Florida... Let's see if this is a trend...

TVCN has the Euro in its mix. Let's see what happens after the next Euro run. My guess, west.

[weathaguyry]

Near me in Long Beach, NY, a giant truck left with supplies for Houston yesterday, as I'm sure many areas are doing this, water is running somewhat low due to this, even in New York, so I can only imagine the nightmare starting to unfold in Florida

[northjaxpro]

I'm not liking the westward trend. Could well hit south FL and then the Carolinas. Difficult to tell where the north turn will occur. Eastern Gulf not out of the picture.

Man this is starting to look bad. The chances of having a second major strike on the CONUS and it possibly landfalling twice in different areas would be a nightmare... If SoFla and Carolinas, would this become the costliest Atlantic hurricane season ever?

EDIT: Also hope for the best for our friends in the islands. A lot of times we talk about CONUS but there will be immediate threats prior to that in the northern Lesser Antilles and now a greater threat to PR, Hispaniola, Bahamas, and Cuba. Wow thats a lot of lives this storm can ruin..

Thanks Eric. It's a bit discouraging being out here in the islands when most of the discussion is about CONUS.

Painkiller. my heart, thoughts and prayers goes out to you and everybody who is in the path of Irma in the islands My prayers are with you and everyone there. I hope that everything is being completed with your preparations.

[BIGWIND]

How do you save the animation?
Thanks.

[Cuda]

With regard to Florida evacuations, my understanding is that if you are mIles inland, not in a mobile home, not in a flood zone, it's actually not recommended that you evacuate. There is this misconception that the entirety of SE Florida needs to be evacuated for hurricanes, and that is not the case at all. If that had to happen, that would be logistically impossible.

How far inland do you need to be? Looking at potential tracks, you could have a 930mb storm traveling through the middle of the state, if it were to make landfall in the 800s. So if you have a cat 3 storm after it gets inland somewhat hitting, say Orlando, you wouldn't think those people should consider evacuating? How far inland is safe from a storm that makes landfall as a cat 5 and is moving at a decent enough speed?

[BIGWIND]

How do you save the animation?
Thanks.

[TJRE]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 041345.GIF

Stadium Effect Eyewall -atm

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/904714116744568832




On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y15nYV8WmS8

[RL3AO]

Starting to see evidence of the EWRC cycle. Eye looking less defined over the past 30 minutes.

[weathaguyry]

Just a little tip, since I hear that some stores are already running out of water, in the Baby section of the store, there is usually more gallon jugs of water for whatever reason

[caneseddy]

12z Guidance...


06z Guidance...

TVCN did shift slightly N near Cuba and E near Florida... Let's see if this is a trend...

If my eyes aren't deceiving me isn't TVCN the one farthest west...hard to tell because it's bunched up with the TVCX...if it's the one on the left at 12z then it actually has shifted a bit West to landfall on the South Florida coast