ATL: IRMA - Models

[birddogsc]

What time does Gonzo fly today? I would wonder if this new data would be plugged in by 18z or 0z.

1730Z:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 05/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0411A IRMA
C. 04/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[pcolaman]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

When are the next models out?

[tgenius]

12Z GFS gonna start rolling out in 15, let's see where it takes her.

[joey]

even if this goes further west the trof could still pick it up and sling it ne again over fl

[ROCK]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

Um if I was FL I would be preparing. SE FL is dead center of guidance...I am waiting for that one anomalous EURO run that throws a wrench in the other models though. Always seems to happen around this time.

[toad strangler]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

You have to be careful will thoughts like this. A hard right is most likely at some point. It doesn't really matter how far S she gets except for some hopeful mountain damage. So it doesn't matter how far S she gets because once she lifts N its a hard N heading.

[invest man]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore[/quote

I see that too. But they seem to be talking the consensus models and the Euro plots. We have not got that far out in time for NHC to show a hook back north. With all these extra balloons and other flight missions going into the next set of 00z models, stay tuned!

[CrazyC83]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

You have to be careful will thoughts like this. A hard right is most likely at some point. It doesn't really matter how far S she gets except for some hopeful mountain damage. So it doesn't matter how far S she gets because once she lifts N its a hard N heading.

Wouldn't a weaker storm be less affected by any troughs, leaving the door open to possibly even the western Gulf or the Yucatan?

[MrJames]

From the 11AM discussion:

Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the
environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data
will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

Tonight's runs will be interesting to say the least.

[HDGator]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

From your lips to God's ears.

But I think it's way to early to call the all clear for SE FL coast. The current ensembles paint a pretty ugly picture for south Florida.
We need to see what comes in the next few days before this forecast is settled.

[Weatherboy1]

With the more westerly trend, I have a big decision to make so need advice from my fellow S2Kers. We leave Trinidad for Fort Lauderdale on Friday, to head up to Orlando for vacation. even if this moves more west, it would mean that the strong NE quadrant would be over significant portions of FL state, depending on final size of storm.
We have to decide tomorrow what we will do since my mom is currently in Boynton Beach, and we were due to meet her. Does it make sense to hope that we could still get a vacation or should our focus be just to get mom back home? Grateful for advice from those who have experienced hurricanes in FL...

My wife and I live in Fort Lauderdale and have a Disney trip planned for this weekend... We aren't going to make a decision until Wednesday at this point. The models are still all over the place +5 days

That's all you can do. I am supposed to fly to Toronto Thursday-Saturday ... but not leaving the house to the wife and son if a hurricane is bearing down!

[WeatherHoon]

It baffles me how some people can make such definitive statements based off of a few model runs. You'd think people would learn by now after witness all the drastic changes with the runs the past few days.?SFL is not off the hook nor is it at an imminent risk. Same goes for all sides and locations for Florida. Still have 5-6 days for changes.

[Steve]

The more SW she dives now the more GOM comes into play. 2 days ago I was thinking no chance in hell. But EURO runs and some GEFS ensembles are changing my mind right now..shows what I know

I gave it 0% chance with a 1/2% caveat it could get into the keys and come up through SW FL. Models seem to have converged between 100-150 miles either side of Florida. So the first question to me now is does Irma come up east, on the peninsula or west. I don't think South Florida is going to be spared which brings up the second question of how strong. Too early at 7 days to know. And also too early to know if it makes it down to Cuba and possibly be interrupted. Wherever we go with trends the next few days, for now it appears we will have a landfalling Cat 4 (could be 3 or 5 obviously) into somewhere in South Florida. Naples? FL City? Miami? Too hard to say. But if you are in south Florida, you better be prepared. I wouldn't wait past tomorrow to make sure I have what I need if I was thinking of staying. Also Bahamas. You know I've been talking to you since Tuesday. Vigilance is a must.

Let's see if the GFS continues to lead with the track. We will have every model except the EC ensembles within 3 hours.

[jlauderdal]

If there is any hope here in South Florida, it is that the Euro and ensembles consensus are just east of South Florida still. Plus we are still 6-7 days out. There is plenty of time for models to shift off of us here. The possibility still exists that it recurves east of Florida in a close call situation. But the risk to Florida seems quite high currently.

Nhc keeps sending it south and west...i dont see a dead on hit for the se fl coast anymore

From your lips to God's ears.

But I think it's way to early to call the all clear for SE FL coast. The current ensembles paint a pretty ugly picture for south Florida.
We need to see what comes in the next few days before this forecast is settled.

No all clear but its trending away from a direct hit to the se coast..we will.be on the dirty side though but once it gets past 81 we are in much better shape

[Raebie]

GFS 12Z has started.

[ROCK]

From the 11AM discussion:

Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the
environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data
will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

Tonight's runs will be interesting to say the least.

Yes and we should take Steves advice and look at the NAM though only 84hrs out for the CONUS trof and its evolution...might give us a clue also

[RL3AO]

It baffles me how some people can make such definitive statements based off of a few model runs. You'd think people would learn by now after witness all the drastic changes with the runs the past few days.?SFL is not off the hook nor is it at an imminent risk. Same goes for all sides and locations for Florida. Still have 5-6 days for changes.

At one point people said it was an absolute fish that won't get west of Bermuda. I don't know why there is this need to make declarative statements so early.

[RL3AO]

GFS running. Looks similar though 36 hours (maybe 15 miles north).

[ConvergenceZone]

Most Mets on here will tell you that if it does traverse over the length of Cuba like the models are showing, it will be severely weakened. The question is, will it be a weak hurricane or a tropical storm after that happens? It would have some time to regen over water. So if it did weaken to a strong tropical storm, it could get back to hurricane strength. (This is only my opinion, after watching dozens of storms cross Cuba, this is not an official forecast

[mitchell]

It baffles me how some people can make such definitive statements based off of a few model runs.

Yeah I agree. Now that these myriad of model outputs (in pretty graphical form so everyone can see it, analyze it) out to 400 hours into the future, it would be so nice to see some attempts at educating the public about error margins. I mean when two days ago when the GFS was showing a Mid-Atlantic Sandy-like landfall, people (not on here) were saying it was going to "track up the Chesapeake Bay and hit DC" because the model graphics are SO precise in their depiction of a storm track 300 hours away.