ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

About 25 miles north of the 6z run.

[BobHarlem]

Looks like 25-30 miles north of the last run when it's north of PR.

[weathaguyry]

Ridge is weaker over the Western CONUS...

[ConvergenceZone]

Land interaction with Cuba is key if it does go to Florida. It could make the difference between a depression hitting Florida(at the expense of Cuba) or a strong hurricane hitting Florida(if it goes in that direction)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope people, in particular my loved ones, over SE Florida are considering preparations and discussiong emergency plans regardless of a direct hit from the eyewall. Impacts may begin whilst closing in

[stormreader]

About 25 miles or so further north. Would be good news for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Bad news for CONUS.

My thinking. A slightly less south move early on (let's see if it continues) means a possible less radical north turn late. In other words a trek a little further west into the SE GOM.

[Kat5]

Trough looking about the same compared to the 06z run so far. Maybe will show a more northern turn before 80W.

[weathaguyry]

Still slightly NE of 6z at 84 hours

[HurricaneFrances04]

Through 84 hrs, looks like the 12z is right in between the 00z and 06z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One heck of an upper-level environment.

[Big Easy Breeze]

I'd be weary of any continued southerly movement in any of these runs. It's been at 16.8 riding west for the past few hours (since the 8 AM advisory). I'd assume it's done heading south.

Do not assume. Still heading wsw according to latest recon. Heading 255 @ 12 KT. Pressure down to 944.

[RL3AO]

Cat 4/5 entering SE Bahamas. Still slightly north of 6z run. This might be an ugly run for FL.

[RL3AO]

Trough slightly further north this run as well.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Ridge is weaker over the Western CONUS...

If so, that would indicate less digging of the trof through the midwest.

[SouthDadeFish]

The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.

[weathaguyry]

Still NE of 6z at 96 hours

[RL3AO]

The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.

And this run, the slightly further north motion through day 4 maybe enough to avoid most of Cuba. Potentially a worse case scenario for S FL.

[RL3AO]

Still intensifying. Would be Jose stronger too.

[Blown Away]

96 hours a frightening storm/position...

[stormreader]

The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.

Yes the ridge wouldn't be pushing down so hard on Irma in early track north of DR, but would cosequently extend further west taking Irma somewhat further into the SE GOM.