ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

i have to leave my place if it come live in modles home hope rest live here leave too you dont stay in modle home for cat4

[AdamFirst]

Looking at the 8am advisory ant current one this is heading due west at 16.8n

That's about what last night's (00z) HWRF had it doing.

[got ants?]

The next advisory should show the hard right turn beginning per the TVCN, unless the 12z models move farther W... Donna rounded the HP smoothly then had a decent sharp NNE turn, but nothing like the hard right these models show... I'm still going with a smooth WNW, NW, NNW, NNE, NE track, not WNW then N... It seems somewhere just E or W of, or over Florida...

Not liking this at all. I have to assume that will place her off of the tip of Florida sunday am, if not into Florida directly, and just when is she supposed to turn north? The delimna for me is I run a retail booth at a local farmer's market, and my product is meats (stored in a freezer on site). I normally smoke on thursdays, and heat and serve on the weekend (sat/sun),,,ie; jerk pork, jerk chicken.

Why we aren't getting time frames of possibilities of when she might hit is making me a nervous wreck. Even if they are wrong, and it swings into the Gulf, or Atlantic, at least I'd have something to gauge on. Preparing my space at the market has NOT been in my hurricane plans, and it seems to be now... SMH!!!

Is it too early to give guestimates of what we might expect?

[Hurricaneman]

Might have to watch and see if this starts a wnw movement sooner than expected, could make all the difference between hitting the larger islands and a weaker Florida landfall and staying over the Florida straits and being beyond bad for the Florida peninsula

[AdamFirst]

People around here are anxious. The local news has been on information overload for the past week. It's light traffic on the highways but heavy at the grocery stores and gas stations.

Got my car's oil changed and tires rotated this past Saturday. I was due for one anyway but it is as good as time as any...facing the threat of evacuation.

Time for GFS happy hour...

[eastcoastFL]

i have to leave my place if it come live in modles home hope rest live here leave too you dont stay in modle home for cat4

Do you mean mobile or modular home? Either one you're right. You need to go to a hotel or shelter.

[Mouton]

The 11AM advisory is out. Another bend to the west. N central Cuba would be dead center in the cone for Saturday morning. The more mountainous side of Cuba would be on the east side of the storm in the senario. This is not very dissimilar to earlier UK Met models which had the storm almost in the middle of the straits but a bit earlier. I do not recall many prior storm taking such a path toward Cuba so I guess time will tell how accurate that forecast actually is....it is after all five days out. We are due to receive much detail from the atmospheric runs over the continent to gauge the timing and strength of the trough so this five day has a pretty wide cone at five days.

Given all that, were this to get to that position, it will become a colossal worry for the entire area from the Upper Keys to New Orleans IMO and if it turns sharply to the North as many of the prior model runs have shown, it would put the entire Fl Peninsula in trouble. While the storm would be degraded a tad by the higher west side Island of Cuba, it will have time to regenerate over very warm waters as it begins its northward run IMO.

Ike travelled over Cuba on a westerly heading after passing over Great Inagua.

Yes it did, just did not recall it. The HARF intensity model take this down to Cat 1 after showing move over Cuba BTW, just like Ike did. Also interesting, its path and projected one over the next five days would be a rerun to that point.

[Hurricaneman]

Do the Hurricane Hunters have a secondary Caribbean location to fly out of if (when) St. Croix can't be flown out of.

Barbados I would think

[frey]

Just a note to our island friends to let you know our thoughts and prayers our with you.
(As another non-CONUS member, I know what it's like to feel forgotten!)

Best wishes to all and keep safe, everyone in the path of this storm!

I second these sympathies! I am CONUS, but still often forgotten - no news agencies cover this portion of the OBX (VA coverage never goes south of the northern OBX and mainland NC doesn't go that far east. TWC actively excludes us after an on-air personality was confronted by a local politician). It can be so frustrating to see people so far away from the storm and from certainty of this storm focusing on themselves. I try not to speak for others, but I am confident that I can say there are many of us here (including lurkers like me) and in the non-digital world who have the islands in our thoughts. It's certainly been a major topic of conversation with my neighbors and coworkers - we understand. Fingers crossed for your safety.

[floridasun78]

i have to leave my place if it come live in modles home hope rest live here leave too you dont stay in modle home for cat4

Do you mean mobile or modular home? Either one you're right. You need to go to a hotel or shelter.

mobile

[p1nheadlarry]

Morning from the Big Bend,

Outside of some nonperishables and my big battery for the flashlight, I'm set for any possible impacts from Irma. Despite trending closer and closer to my location, thoughts are with the islands and those in peninsular Florida. Today's the day if you haven't finished your plans. We'll be ok

[sponger]

Definitely not going to be the same storm if that interaction with Cuba pans out so that is a huge win for Florida. Charley got its act together in 6 hours or so but I feel a lot better about a long strafe with Cuba before heading near Florida. Now if it actually is 50 miles off the coast we may be in trouble. The 00Z models tonight should give us a good idea of what Irma is planning.

[p1nheadlarry]

Just a note to our island friends to let you know our thoughts and prayers our with you.
(As another non-CONUS member, I know what it's like to feel forgotten!)

Best wishes to all and keep safe, everyone in the path of this storm!

I second these sympathies! I am CONUS, but still often forgotten - no news agencies cover this portion of the OBX (VA coverage never goes south of the northern OBX and mainland NC doesn't go that far east. TWC actively excludes us after an on-air personality was confronted by a local politician). It can be so frustrating to see people so far away from the storm and from certainty of this storm focusing on themselves. I try not to speak for others, but I am confident that I can say there are many of us here (including lurkers like me) and in the non-digital world who have the islands in our thoughts. It's certainly been a major topic of conversation with my neighbors and coworkers - we understand. Fingers crossed for your safety.

I thought Ocracoke also gets WAVY and the Greenville station?

[guyclaude08]

Hello you guys i live in the Island of Hispaniola i don't post often here it's been years now but i'm kinda worried about this Hurricane. Will this hurricane has a big impact in the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic). And why the NHC is not saying anything yet like warning and watches for the island. Let me know please

[weatherwindow]

andrew housing had major problems due to really shoddy new construction, if you have an older home you are most likely best to shelter in place

Good morning, Sani....I can certainly commiserate...I am sure neither of us would jeopardize life and limb by not evacuating...if the worst case verifies...best of luck to you in any case....Greetings from Cayo Hueso, Rich


Where I am is suicidal in this type of strong surger...Think Bolivar and Mississippi coast...Our house is 1987 but withstood Charlie pretty good...



Our only hope is a continued westward trend but we will still be on the NE quadrant if that happens...



This is the real deal...Track will probably lock now...Full evacuation preparation...

[PTPatrick]

Definitely not going to be the same storm if that interaction with Cuba pans out so that is a huge win for Florida. Charley got its act together in 6 hours or so but I feel a lot better about a long strafe with Cuba before heading near Florida. Now if it actually is 50 miles off the coast we may be in trouble. The 00Z models tonight should give us a good idea of what Irma is planning.

Agreed some one over Cuba will certainly help Florida, unless it tracks off the coast over the keys to the panhandle. Then all bets are off. Many storms have rallied upon ending a long trip over Cuba and devastated the gulf coast.

[psyclone]

Definitely not going to be the same storm if that interaction with Cuba pans out so that is a huge win for Florida. Charley got its act together in 6 hours or so but I feel a lot better about a long strafe with Cuba before heading near Florida. Now if it actually is 50 miles off the coast we may be in trouble. The 00Z models tonight should give us a good idea of what Irma is planning.

Dennis 05 cranked back up to a category 4 west of tampa after being ground down to a 1 over Cuba. Harvey just came off the Yucatan as a nothing and blew up to a cat 4 before landfall. especially in peak season hurricanes can quickly redevelop after land interaction (I realize Dennis was in July but 2005 was it's own creation).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hello you guys i live in the Island of Hispaniola i don't post often here it's been years now but i'm kinda worried about this Hurricane. Will this hurricane has a big impact in the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic). And why the NHC is not saying anything yet like warning and watches for the island. Let me know please

You'd have to wait a day more before your locality/region would be issued such. Watches are issued 48 hours before impact while a warning is issued 36 hours prior. There's still about 80 hours until Irma's closest approach (or landfall) over Hispaniola which means you have three days to prepare. Hope you'd be guided and stay safe!

[frey]

Just a note to our island friends to let you know our thoughts and prayers our with you.
(As another non-CONUS member, I know what it's like to feel forgotten!)

Best wishes to all and keep safe, everyone in the path of this storm!

I second these sympathies! I am CONUS, but still often forgotten - no news agencies cover this portion of the OBX (VA coverage never goes south of the northern OBX and mainland NC doesn't go that far east. TWC actively excludes us after an on-air personality was confronted by a local politician). It can be so frustrating to see people so far away from the storm and from certainty of this storm focusing on themselves. I try not to speak for others, but I am confident that I can say there are many of us here (including lurkers like me) and in the non-digital world who have the islands in our thoughts. It's certainly been a major topic of conversation with my neighbors and coworkers - we understand. Fingers crossed for your safety.

I thought Ocracoke also gets WAVY and the Greenville station?

Wavy doesn't talk about anything south of Duck. Greenville station got pulled by Charter recently, but I think it's back now. They rarely move east of the mainland. TWC prefers Kill Devil Hills or Nags Head these days.

[CourierPR]

Looking at the 8am advisory ant current one this is heading due west at 16.8n

According to NHC, heading WSW at 14 mph at 11 A.M.