ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2681 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:56 am

URNT15 KNHC 041654
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 18 20170904
164500 1658N 05403W 6972 02966 9839 +097 +094 036096 098 083 003 00
164530 1657N 05401W 6956 02965 9807 +106 +093 042096 097 086 002 00
164600 1656N 05400W 6973 02929 9776 +114 +111 041097 098 088 012 00
164630 1655N 05359W 6965 02914 9763 +113 +113 037086 095 088 014 00
164700 1655N 05357W 6967 02895 9749 +110 +109 040078 083 092 001 00
164730 1654N 05356W 6956 02891 9698 +129 +110 041078 079 092 000 00
164800 1653N 05355W 6968 02859 9668 +140 +106 042081 082 086 002 00
164830 1652N 05353W 6966 02839 9647 +137 +104 041084 085 076 001 00
164900 1651N 05352W 6965 02813 9619 +136 +101 038090 091 072 001 00
164930 1650N 05351W 6965 02771 9574 +138 +112 037090 092 075 001 00
165000 1649N 05349W 6970 02726 9519 +141 +135 041076 085 077 003 01
165030 1647N 05348W 6974 02687 9478 +154 +125 041056 069 071 001 00
165100 1647N 05347W 6971 02668 9458 +152 +121 051038 048 049 001 00
165130 1645N 05345W 6963 02668 9450 +148 +119 052026 034 032 001 00
165200 1644N 05344W 6977 02648 9446 +151 +115 028008 019 026 001 03
165230 1643N 05342W 6987 02638 9455 +145 +118 230008 012 028 000 00
165300 1643N 05341W 6957 02682 9463 +140 +115 209024 032 031 000 03
165330 1642N 05339W 6966 02687 9479 +142 +113 199040 043 045 002 00
165400 1641N 05337W 6963 02710 9498 +145 +128 203060 069 065 015 00
165430 1640N 05336W 6968 02729 9559 +130 +130 209080 086 076 034 00
$$

Pressure holding steady. Can still see the double wind maxima.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#2682 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:56 am

Wind radii have continued to increase per the new mission.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2683 Postby JPmia » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:58 am

HeatherAKC wrote:I am interested in any potential storm surge forecasts for North Miami Beach. Anyone have thoughts or sources?


Hey Heather, I can help with that.. private message me.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2684 Postby Prof » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:58 am

I'm 2 miles from the coast near Cocoa. If it comes up through the middle of Florida, is it a good idea to evacuate? What would we expect in mid-Florida? Would it have weakened to a cat 1 by then? I have two little ones and am trying to make plans for different scenarios.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2685 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:59 am

This can;t be right, right? By Friday??????
"Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday"
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-labor-day-20170904-story.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2686 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:59 am

very pronounced double wind maximum from recon... inner eye still has some juice left so a few more hours it seems.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#2687 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:59 am

Extrap down to 944-945 mb and it looks like the outer eyewall is starting to become dominant. Strongest winds in NW quadrant were associated with the outer eyewall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2688 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:01 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:This can;t be right, right? By Friday??????
"Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday"
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-labor-day-20170904-story.html


Not eye, but maybe outer bands rolling in, possible... Big storm predicted...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2689 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:01 pm

HeatherAKC wrote:I am interested in any potential storm surge forecasts for North Miami Beach. Anyone have thoughts or sources?


Heather, keep in mind we're talking about POTENTIAL storm surge, not a storm surge forecast. Using the SLOSH model for a Category 4 tracking NNW at 6 mph during high tide, I'm seeing 7-9 feet into Miami proper and 11-12 feet into Biscayne Bay. Same if it's coming from due south. For a Cat 3 of similar size, reduce those numbers by a foot or so. However, if the wind field expands due to interaction with Cuba, then it would produce a surge similar to the Cat 4 numbers.

Northern Miami is less surge-prone than the city itself, perhaps reduce the numbers above by a foot or two.

Now all this is just a rough estimate of what kind of surge COULD impact SE Florida for a particular storm. Those numbers are NOT my forecast. They're just to give you an idea what the area MIGHT see as far as surge. We do not know the most important variables yet - exact track of Irma, exact size of Irma's wind field, speed of movement, etc.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2690 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:01 pm

Recon extrapolated surface pressure:
944.6 mb

16.733N 53.733W
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2691 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:very pronounced double wind maximum from recon... inner eye still has some juice left so a few more hours it seems.

I was just wondering if an EWRC was starting...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2692 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I see the ERC that started early this morning is still going. looks like a few more hours till its complete.

looks like its also starting to bend back to the wsw again the last few frames. ( just woke up )

This storm is perpetually in an EWRC.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#2693 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:02 pm

Yep, winds may actually be down in the 95-100 kt range again due to eyewall replacement. They'll spike back up quickly though once it's complete.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2694 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:very pronounced double wind maximum from recon... inner eye still has some juice left so a few more hours it seems.

The eye looks like it will be quite a bit larger when it completes the cycle
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2695 Postby Evenstar » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:04 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
frey wrote:
alanstover wrote:Just a note to our island friends to let you know our thoughts and prayers our with you.
(As another non-CONUS member, I know what it's like to feel forgotten!)

Best wishes to all and keep safe, everyone in the path of this storm!



I second these sympathies! I am CONUS, but still often forgotten - no news agencies cover this portion of the OBX (VA coverage never goes south of the northern OBX and mainland NC doesn't go that far east. TWC actively excludes us after an on-air personality was confronted by a local politician). It can be so frustrating to see people so far away from the storm and from certainty of this storm focusing on themselves. I try not to speak for others, but I am confident that I can say there are many of us here (including lurkers like me) and in the non-digital world who have the islands in our thoughts. It's certainly been a major topic of conversation with my neighbors and coworkers - we understand. Fingers crossed for your safety.


I thought Ocracoke also gets WAVY and the Greenville station?


I'm from the Tidewater and I think WAVY blows (if you will). They downplay everything to the extreme, IMO.
Last edited by Evenstar on Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2696 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:04 pm

Blown Away wrote:
ObsessedMiami wrote:This can;t be right, right? By Friday??????
"Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday"
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-labor-day-20170904-story.html


Not eye, but maybe outer bands rolling in, possible... Big storm predicted...


Our forecast has 39 mph wind reaching SE Florida by late Saturday morning. Tropical storm winds hit Andros Island Friday evening. I don't think you'll see much in SE Florida until Saturday. Maybe some extreme outer rain bands Friday afternoon.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2697 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HeatherAKC wrote:I am interested in any potential storm surge forecasts for North Miami Beach. Anyone have thoughts or sources?


Heather, keep in mind we're talking about POTENTIAL storm surge, not a storm surge forecast. Using the SLOSH model for a Category 4 tracking NNW at 6 mph during high tide, I'm seeing 7-9 feet into Miami proper and 11-12 feet into Biscayne Bay. Same if it's coming from due south. For a Cat 3 of similar size, reduce those numbers by a foot or so. However, if the wind field expands due to interaction with Cuba, then it would produce a surge similar to the Cat 4 numbers.

Northern Miami is less surge-prone than the city itself, perhaps reduce the numbers above by a foot or two.

Now all this is just a rough estimate of what kind of surge COULD impact SE Florida for a particular storm. Those numbers are NOT my forecast. They're just to give you an idea what the area MIGHT see as far as surge. We do not know the most important variables yet - exact track of Irma, exact size of Irma's wind field, speed of movement, etc.
and don't forget exact intensity- perhaps
The least known variable. :wink:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2698 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:very pronounced double wind maximum from recon... inner eye still has some juice left so a few more hours it seems.


Do you think the wind field is going to start expanding? It's been pretty steady over the past 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2699 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:06 pm

SE Quad

URNT15 KNHC 041704
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 19 20170904
165500 1639N 05335W 6964 02771 9609 +121 +121 215085 090 082 029 00
165530 1638N 05334W 6970 02802 9635 +114 +106 215088 089 080 027 03
165600 1637N 05333W 6961 02840 9658 +124 +109 216083 085 084 018 00
165630 1635N 05332W 6967 02860 9693 +120 +113 219083 084 092 007 00
165700 1634N 05331W 6966 02883 9718 +118 +113 219082 083 096 009 00
165730 1633N 05330W 6954 02921 9780 +110 +110 222090 097 094 016 00
165800 1632N 05329W 6992 02905 9831 +096 +096 216092 097 089 040 00
165830 1631N 05327W 6964 02954 9846 +094 +094 217090 093 083 030 00
165900 1630N 05326W 6975 02961 9871 +093 +093 215085 092 081 025 00
165930 1629N 05325W 6960 02992 9888 +089 +089 215083 084 080 017 03
170000 1628N 05324W 6965 03001 9906 +090 +090 214079 082 077 018 00
170030 1627N 05323W 6969 03005 9916 +089 +089 218080 085 075 016 03
170100 1625N 05322W 6959 03029 9939 +087 +087 213081 087 067 034 03
170130 1624N 05321W 6977 03014 9967 +073 +073 204079 081 064 045 03
170200 1623N 05320W 6962 03043 9971 +073 +073 207081 083 059 030 03
170230 1622N 05319W 6966 03049 9975 +078 +078 210081 085 058 025 03
170300 1621N 05318W 6973 03049 9974 +079 +079 211076 080 063 010 03
170330 1620N 05317W 6968 03058 9974 +079 +079 212075 076 061 009 00
170400 1619N 05316W 6967 03067 9982 +074 +074 210075 075 059 008 00
170430 1618N 05314W 6966 03074 9983 +076 +075 210073 075 057 008 00
$$
;

If no one else it able to post, I'll return for the next center pass.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2700 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
ObsessedMiami wrote:This can;t be right, right? By Friday??????
"Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday"
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-labor-day-20170904-story.html


Not eye, but maybe outer bands rolling in, possible... Big storm predicted...


Our forecast has 39 mph wind reaching SE Florida by late Saturday morning. Tropical storm winds hit Andros Island Friday evening. I don't think you'll see much in SE Florida until Saturday. Maybe some extreme outer rain bands Friday afternoon.
I realize you may not be able to elaborate but what does your forecast hold for SE Florida thereafter??
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