ATL: IRMA - Models

[jlauderdal]

ok you had your fun, we wont be having anymore of those solutions...thanks

[bqknight]

Is the size of the storm fairly certain? Or is that something models don't predict well?

[sma10]

What did someone mean when they said U.K. Was predicting Irma to be she'll of her self?

The UK model is predicting a similar path as the other models, however just a bit further south. As a result, instead of tracking Irma uninterrupted over the warm ocean, it has her tracking over the very high mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. We know from the past that this type of track normally acts to disrupt a hurricanes circulation significantly.

[ronyan]

Can you believe the HWRF is coming in stronger and IR simulation shows an even larger storm:

https://s26.postimg.org/to6crzr0p/hwrf_ ... 1_L_17.png

This thing is MONSTROUS!!! The eye looks to be about 60 miles across....

HolyS&*@!!!

By estimating the lat/lon of the eyewall I get 55-60 miles in diameter.

[Steve]

12Z's are finished. JMA, CMC and NAVGEM like SW FL. GFS likes SFL. Euro is SE/coastal FL. Hurricane models don't go far enough out but are on/near Cuba 5 days. US Impacts beyond Puerto Rico (praying for a miss on y'all) are now just inside a week. Paranoia will set in. Get your stuff done while you can if you're in SFL.

I'm 95% convinced Irma will not be an out to sea storm. So even if it barely misses FL (ala ECMWF), it's going to come west eventually due to the Canadian block. ECMWF takes a different path inland than the GFS does and is more NW initially than later. It heads across the Smokys into Kentucky and finally hooks left into southern Indiana. GFS has been showing this high building since it started hitting Maryland 12 runs ago. So at some point in time, Irma has to come west eventually.

[KWT]

HMON is just one of the most crazy runs your likely to see, still taking this down to 870s with a peak wind of 160kts. Looks like it overdevelops it almost right away but no doubt there must be a super great set-up aloft as all the better resolution models are dropping Irma at least into the 920s at the moment.

[Steve]

What did someone mean when they said U.K. Was predicting Irma to be she'll of her self?

Shredded by islands.

[Ken711]

What did someone mean when they said U.K. Was predicting Irma to be she'll of her self?

Shredded by islands.

Thant would be wonderful if it happens.

[SouthDadeFish]

HMON is just one of the most crazy runs your likely to see, still taking this down to 870s with a peak wind of 160kts. Looks like it overdevelops it almost right away but no doubt there must be a super great set-up aloft as all the better resolution models are dropping Irma at least into the 920s at the moment.

HMON clearly has issues. The rate of intensification within the first 3 hours is absurd and incorrect, as demonstrated by recon. It is not coupled to the ocean in the Atlantic basin, and as a result, over-intensifies TCs. I would not trust any intensity forecast from HMON in this situation.

[stormreader]

On discussion thread. Irma now a Cat 4.

[sponger]

No one in S Florida would feel comfortable with a strong hurricane approaching if the eyewall was forecast to remain only a few miles off shore. Would you trust the forecast if a 20 mile error could result in you receiving 100+ mph winds? In retrospect you could breathe a sigh of relief.

It was enough for me to board up for Matthew, and that was 2 days out. That plywood sat for 15 years. Ready to go again if need be.

[hohnywx]

What did someone mean when they said U.K. Was predicting Irma to be she'll of her self?

Shredded by islands.

Thant would be wonderful if it happens.

Wonderful for the CONUS, but terrible for them.

[MJGarrison]

When I'm looking at the models on Tropical Tidbits, whats the correct view to look at for estimated winds at the surface?

[gatorcane]

Latest 18Z:

[Ken711]

Shredded by islands.

Thant would be wonderful if it happens.

Wonderful for the CONUS, but terrible for them.

That's true, there's always people in the islands in the line of fire. And I don't want to diminish the impact they would feel.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have to think that Hispanola is gonna take a massive bite out of this.

[stormreader]

12Z's are finished. JMA, CMC and NAVGEM like SW FL. GFS likes SFL. Euro is SE/coastal FL. Hurricane models don't go far enough out but are on/near Cuba 5 days. US Impacts beyond Puerto Rico (praying for a miss on y'all) are now just inside a week. Paranoia will set in. Get your stuff done while you can if you're in SFL.

I'm 95% convinced Irma will not be an out to sea storm. So even if it barely misses FL (ala ECMWF), it's going to come west eventually due to the Canadian block. ECMWF takes a different path inland than the GFS does and is more NW initially than later. It heads across the Smokys into Kentucky and finally hooks left into southern Indiana. GFS has been showing this high building since it started hitting Maryland 12 runs ago. So at some point in time, Irma has to come west eventually.

East window looks closed.

[KWT]

HMON is just one of the most crazy runs your likely to see, still taking this down to 870s with a peak wind of 160kts. Looks like it overdevelops it almost right away but no doubt there must be a super great set-up aloft as all the better resolution models are dropping Irma at least into the 920s at the moment.

HMON clearly has issues. The rate of intensification within the first 3 hours is absurd and incorrect, as demonstrated by recon. It is not coupled to the ocean in the Atlantic basin, and as a result, over-intensifies TCs. I would not trust any intensity forecast from HMON in this situation.

What is even more interesting though is the GFS is also bombing this down almost as crazy depths, I mean its pretty much a Keys hurricane reduex, down to 890mbs!

[Steve]

On discussion thread. Irma now a Cat 4.

Interestingly, HWRF, before the recent runs hit Cuba and stunted it, was rolling it continuously in Cat 4 territory. I'm sure it's happened a few times, but I don't recall any recent storms that stayed at Cat 4 for like 4-5 days straight. Usually there are eyewall interruptions and such where a storm will maybe degrade back to a 3 or whatever. Short of an encounter with Hispanola or Cuba, we are now potentially looking at a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hit on Florida in a week. Then we are looking at a Cat 2/3/? hit on SC or NC thereafter. The potential here is as big as it gets.

[Blown Away]

12Z's are finished. JMA, CMC and NAVGEM like SW FL. GFS likes SFL. Euro is SE/coastal FL. Hurricane models don't go far enough out but are on/near Cuba 5 days. US Impacts beyond Puerto Rico (praying for a miss on y'all) are now just inside a week. Paranoia will set in. Get your stuff done while you can if you're in SFL.

I'm 95% convinced Irma will not be an out to sea storm. So even if it barely misses FL (ala ECMWF), it's going to come west eventually due to the Canadian block. ECMWF takes a different path inland than the GFS does and is more NW initially than later. It heads across the Smokys into Kentucky and finally hooks left into southern Indiana. GFS has been showing this high building since it started hitting Maryland 12 runs ago. So at some point in time, Irma has to come west eventually.

East window looks closed.

Storm E of 60W, that E door is never closed for Florida, but it's not looking good ATM...