ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Cat 4 based on recon?

Yes, the best track file has already been updated, so it should be a cat 4 in the next advisory.

[tropicwatch]

Think they might slow it down a bit too.

[TheAustinMan]

Dropsonde sampled 131kt instantaneous wind at the 929mb height level in the southwestern eyewall. The surface pressure at splashdown was 970 mb.

[NDG]

Cat 4 based on recon?

Yes, it found 113 knot surface winds.

[Kingarabian]

May not make the next forecast point

[img]http://i.imgur.com/KVysp7x.png[img]

Moving west earlier than expected.. or maybe just another wobble

[Extratropical94]

S-SW eyewall dropsonde, 104 knots at surface, max wind 131 knots at 929 mb level

UZNT13 KNHC 041908
XXAA 54197 99165 70543 04264 99970 25008 26604 00772 ///// /////
92414 22405 28628 85150 19405 31115 70811 11601 32591 88999 77999
31313 09608 81841
61616 AF309 0311A IRMA OB 14
62626 EYEWALL 225 MBL WND 28119 AEV 33304 DLM WND 30604 969697 WL
150 26611 084 REL 1654N05426W 184103 SPG 1647N05416W 184502 =
XXBB 54198 99165 70543 04264 00970 25008 11850 19405 22713 14406
33697 10800
21212 00970 26604 11966 26605 22962 26614 33955 27112 44948 28122
55939 28121 66929 28631 77922 28625 88909 29627 99897 29619 11887
29620 22877 29616 33870 30121 44850 31115 55811 32108 66736 32098
77726 32585 88697 32091
31313 09608 81841
61616 AF309 0311A IRMA OB 14
62626 EYEWALL 225 MBL WND 28119 AEV 33304 DLM WND 30604 969697 WL
150 26611 084 REL 1654N05426W 184103 SPG 1647N05416W 184502 =

[wx247]

Does anyone have a list or links where I can keep up with how things are going on the islands over the next few days? I have a friend on St. John's that I am concerned about and would like to keep updated.

[Extratropical94]

[AxaltaRacing24]

May not make the next forecast point

[img]http://i.imgur.com/KVysp7x.png[img]

Moving west earlier than expected.. or maybe just another wobble

Good news for the islands but bad news for FL. It would decrease chances of DR/Cuba disrupting it as much which would allow a stronger system to head more NW into the peninsula.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 041914
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 32 20170904
190500 1531N 05516W 6966 03150 0038 +101 +043 313032 033 028 000 00
190530 1530N 05518W 6965 03151 0034 +104 +045 317032 033 027 001 00
190600 1528N 05519W 6969 03147 0036 +105 +029 317032 033 029 001 00
190630 1527N 05520W 6969 03145 0040 +101 +030 314033 033 029 001 00
190700 1526N 05521W 6967 03150 0043 +097 +047 316033 033 030 003 00
190730 1524N 05523W 6969 03149 0036 +106 +028 319032 033 031 002 00
190800 1523N 05524W 6974 03144 0045 +102 +024 318029 033 028 001 03
190830 1523N 05526W 6963 03158 0041 +105 +019 316028 029 027 000 00
190900 1524N 05527W 6970 03149 0041 +105 +019 319028 029 028 001 03
190930 1524N 05529W 6967 03151 0042 +105 +015 322030 031 026 001 03
191000 1523N 05531W 6958 03163 0046 +100 +014 323030 031 027 000 00
191030 1523N 05533W 6959 03165 0049 +100 +012 326031 031 028 000 00
191100 1523N 05535W 6966 03157 0048 +103 +006 327030 030 028 000 00
191130 1522N 05537W 6967 03158 0053 +100 +012 329029 030 028 001 03
191200 1522N 05540W 6971 03152 0054 +097 +021 330028 029 028 001 00
191230 1523N 05542W 6967 03158 0052 +100 +020 334027 028 027 000 00
191300 1523N 05544W 6967 03160 0057 +095 +036 336027 028 027 000 00
191330 1524N 05546W 6970 03155 0056 +097 +026 338027 028 028 001 00
191400 1526N 05548W 6966 03160 0059 +097 +011 338029 029 026 003 00
191430 1527N 05550W 6967 03157 0060 +095 +021 339027 029 029 001 00

[AutoPenalti]

May not make the next forecast point

Looks like a wobble.

[GCANE]

Symmetrical radial outflow fingers on the new top-most layer of the CDO.
Pushing up the top of the troposphere, perfect anti-cyclone.

[caneseddy]

Just finished my supply pickup at BJs

Line was insane with people waiting to get shopping cart...water was almost gone..this is in Miami Gardens

At least people are prepping for the storm early which is good

[eastcoastFL]

Finalized our initial plans. Going to be staying with family NW of Cocoa Beach. Just finished our shopping too. We're as ready as we can be.

[Preemptivestrike]

Just finished my supply pickup at BJs

Line was insane with people waiting to get shopping cart...water was almost gone..this is in Miami Gardens

At least people are prepping for the storm early which is good

Wonder if Harvey is causing the early prep?

[KWT]

May not make the next forecast point

[img]http://i.imgur.com/KVysp7x.png[img]

Moving west earlier than expected.. or maybe just another wobble

Could just be a wobble, but even if it is true motion its not that much different to forecast. Could make a big difference to the Ne Caribbean but further down the line its unlikely to be of significance now.

[Kingarabian]

May not make the next forecast point

[img]http://i.imgur.com/KVysp7x.png[img]

Moving west earlier than expected.. or maybe just another wobble

Good news for the islands but bad news for FL. It would decrease chances of DR/Cuba disrupting it as much which would allow a stronger system to head more NW into the peninsula.

I remember yesterday's track reasoning was that if Irma continued moving more SW than expected vs more west then, a Florida landfall would be inevitable. Has that reasoning changed today?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 041924
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 33 20170904
191500 1528N 05552W 6966 03161 0059 +095 +017 339026 026 031 001 03
191530 1529N 05554W 6967 03158 0061 +095 +015 344027 028 025 000 00
191600 1529N 05556W 6967 03158 0062 +095 +032 346027 028 028 000 00
191630 1530N 05558W 6968 03160 0060 +095 +026 346027 028 028 001 00
191700 1530N 05601W 6969 03157 0057 +098 +026 342025 027 029 000 00
191730 1531N 05603W 6966 03163 0059 +098 +020 345027 028 028 000 00
191800 1531N 05605W 6967 03163 0059 +100 +016 346029 029 028 001 00
191830 1532N 05608W 6967 03163 0059 +100 +010 343029 030 027 000 00
191900 1532N 05610W 6968 03162 0063 +096 +020 343026 029 027 000 00
191930 1533N 05612W 6967 03164 0067 +091 +034 345025 026 027 000 00
192000 1533N 05614W 6967 03162 0067 +094 +026 348025 026 027 001 00
192030 1534N 05617W 6967 03161 0064 +096 +019 352026 027 028 000 00
192100 1534N 05619W 6967 03166 0065 +095 +015 356027 027 027 001 00
192130 1534N 05619W 6967 03166 0068 +098 +013 355027 027 028 000 00
192200 1535N 05624W 6967 03167 0062 +100 +011 354025 027 027 001 00
192230 1536N 05626W 6967 03168 0064 +100 +016 354026 026 028 000 00
192300 1536N 05628W 6967 03166 0066 +098 +023 359027 027 029 000 00
192330 1537N 05631W 6969 03167 0069 +095 +016 004026 027 029 000 03
192400 1538N 05633W 6965 03170 0071 +096 +011 004025 026 029 000 00
192430 1540N 05634W 6969 03166 0065 +102 +005 001025 025 029 000 00

[jlauderdal]

Just finished my supply pickup at BJs

Line was insane with people waiting to get shopping cart...water was almost gone..this is in Miami Gardens

At least people are prepping for the storm early which is good

yes, good to sea people getting ready, better to have a steady ramp up then everyone out later this week...if we dodge a bullet everyone can have a big party and drink lots of water and eat all the junk food they bought...we still have a some outs, shredder, continues south and west but that could still cone back at us like a late season system, makes a turnthen keeping us on the west side, remember these forecasts are still out in time which means error...all of that is still on the table

[hurricaneCW]

Irma's size has expanded quite a bit already. Those islands are going to see huge impacts even if Irma passes just to the north.