ATL: IRMA - Models

[ronjon]

Give it time, no one can say a FL hit for sure, what kills me is we are stillway out right now and the models are not shifting west like people think. Several models which perform well are actually turning N some 100 miles from FL coast. I think we need not assume FL is the final stop or even that it truly hits FL. This is a huge storm so FL will feel it, but this just does not feel like a straight on FL storm. I think as usuAl people just assume FL based on models. Mathew remeber defied all models and several others

if anything the trend today has been west

GFS up the spine of Florida
CMC has a Donna like track
European while yes it barely stays offshore has the western eyewall over metro south Florida
UKMET if extrapolated from its last position hits Florida
NAVGEM hits Tampa Bay
Euro ensembles shifted slightly west to over south Florida

Add the HWRF and HMON which are well south of Florida but at Miami's longitude at 126 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

THere it is again in the 12z euro that.. mid to upper low that forms over the MS valley pulling it north then NW..

going to wait a couple days before I jump on the hard right turn.. to much uncertainty with that low yet..

But aric even without that low the chances of SFL hit are increasing, the low would increase the rest of FL right?

without that low some ridging would likely build in and it could possibly just continue west across cuba. to hard to say rightnow.. hopefull the increase in baloons and the G-IV will help with that feature.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If that GOM storm forms it'll be interesting to see how the models react. Such a system, especially a deep one, will only further complicate an already complex forecast.

[Blown Away]

What should Boca Raton expect with the current model runs from hurricane Irma?

Based on recent Euro run moving N from this location... Looks like up to 100 mph winds...

[ronjon]

12z EC ensemble mean brings the storm through the straits and up the SW Florida coast to Sarasota.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=360

[ronjon]

THere it is again in the 12z euro that.. mid to upper low that forms over the MS valley pulling it north then NW..

going to wait a couple days before I jump on the hard right turn.. to much uncertainty with that low yet..

But aric even without that low the chances of SFL hit are increasing, the low would increase the rest of FL right?

without that low some ridging would likely build in and it could possibly just continue west across cuba. to hard to say rightnow.. hopefull the increase in baloons and the G-IV will help with that feature.

That feature doesn't show up on the ensemble runs.

[Dean4Storms]

Give it time, no one can say a FL hit for sure, what kills me is we are stillway out right now and the models are not shifting west like people think. Several models which perform well are actually turning N some 100 miles from FL coast. I think we need not assume FL is the final stop or even that it truly hits FL. This is a huge storm so FL will feel it, but this just does not feel like a straight on FL storm. I think as usuAl people just assume FL based on models. Mathew remeber defied all models and several others

if anything the trend today has been west

GFS up the spine of Florida
CMC has a Donna like track
European while yes it barely stays offshore has the western eyewall over metro south Florida
UKMET if extrapolated from its last position hits Florida
NAVGEM hits Tampa Bay
Euro ensembles shifted slightly west to over south Florida

Not to mention the JMA into the Panhandle.

[Frank P]

shamefully stole this off another excellent tropical storm forum board.. its the latest run of the FIM model.. anyone know anything about it related to its reliability

[Ken711]

Looking at the Euro, am I wrong that the O0z runs have been shifting East and the 12Oz runs trending West?

[Frank P]

it almost looks like an extended run of the latest HWRF model run..

[xironman]

THere it is again in the 12z euro that.. mid to upper low that forms over the MS valley pulling it north then NW..

going to wait a couple days before I jump on the hard right turn.. to much uncertainty with that low yet..

But aric even without that low the chances of SFL hit are increasing, the low would increase the rest of FL right?

without that low some ridging would likely build in and it could possibly just continue west across cuba. to hard to say rightnow.. hopefull the increase in baloons and the G-IV will help with that feature.

It is the result of vorticity brought in over the top from the Pacific. You can see it well on any site that gives you 500mb vorticity maps

[Aric Dunn]

But aric even without that low the chances of SFL hit are increasing, the low would increase the rest of FL right?

without that low some ridging would likely build in and it could possibly just continue west across cuba. to hard to say rightnow.. hopefull the increase in baloons and the G-IV will help with that feature.

It is the result of vorticity brought in over the top from the Pacific. You can see it well on any site that gives you 500mb vorticity maps

yes, that energy that swings down cutts off and merges/grow in size very quickly .. im not jumping on board with such a feature that does not exist yet..

[floridasun78]

What should Boca Raton expect with the current model runs from hurricane Irma?

Based on recent Euro run moving N from this location... Looks like up to 100 mph winds...

were you get map from?

[Aric Dunn]

without that low some ridging would likely build in and it could possibly just continue west across cuba. to hard to say rightnow.. hopefull the increase in baloons and the G-IV will help with that feature.

It is the result of vorticity brought in over the top from the Pacific. You can see it well on any site that gives you 500mb vorticity maps

yes, that energy that swings down cutts off and merges/grow in size very quickly .. im not jumping on board with such a feature that does not exist yet..

you can watch it quite easily here..

first little energy just swings east through the ohio valley.. second one swings down cuffs off a growssss lifts the IRMA north then NW>>

thats a very difficult forecast to verify.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ypos=632.5 this is just the GFS>

[Steve]

If that GOM storm forms it'll be interesting to see how the models react. Such a system, especially a deep one, will only further complicate an already complex forecast.

5 of the 6 major global models do develop it. It looks to be mostly a non-factor with Irma in my opinion.

Frank P,

Not sure about verification on FIM. People rarely post it, and I haven't been following it except when people post it. I know it was experimental and had something to do with hexagonal grids, but it's so far over my head that I don't really understand much of what it is.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If that GOM storm forms it'll be interesting to see how the models react. Such a system, especially a deep one, will only further complicate an already complex forecast.

5 of the 6 major global models do develop it. It looks to be mostly a non-factor with Irma in my opinion.

Frank P,

Not sure about verification on FIM. People rarely post it, and I haven't been following it except when people post it. I know it was experimental and had something to do with hexagonal grids, but it's so far over my head that I don't really understand much of what it is.

Everything in the atmosphere does work together and affects everything else, if only by knock on.

[Frank P]

If that GOM storm forms it'll be interesting to see how the models react. Such a system, especially a deep one, will only further complicate an already complex forecast.

5 of the 6 major global models do develop it. It looks to be mostly a non-factor with Irma in my opinion.

Frank P,

Not sure about verification on FIM. People rarely post it, and I haven't been following it except when people post it. I know it was experimental and had something to do with hexagonal grids, but it's so far over my head that I don't really understand much of what it is.

I think its involves a blend of several models of which one is the HWRF, which makes sense as to me it looks like an extended run if the HWRF went out this far.. but thanks Steve..

[Steve]

If that GOM storm forms it'll be interesting to see how the models react. Such a system, especially a deep one, will only further complicate an already complex forecast.

5 of the 6 major global models do develop it. It looks to be mostly a non-factor with Irma in my opinion.

Frank P,

Not sure about verification on FIM. People rarely post it, and I haven't been following it except when people post it. I know it was experimental and had something to do with hexagonal grids, but it's so far over my head that I don't really understand much of what it is.

Everything in the atmosphere does work together and affects everything else, if only by knock on.

For sure. But in this case, there is too much distance. Look at the wind lines at 200 or 250mb. The airmass from the BoC storm and Irma never touch. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[KWT]

Some of the ensembles from both the GFS and the ECM are now getting into the SW Gulf before curving northwards. Very few now recurve totally, so that window is almost closed.

Still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little more west, how likely did a possible Cuba strike look 3/4 days ago? Yet now that is a real possiblity. Expect more changes yet everyone!

[Jagno]

Some of the ensembles from both the GFS and the ECM are now getting into the SW Gulf before curving northwards. Very few now recurve totally, so that window is almost closed.

Still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little more west, how likely did a possible Cuba strike look 3/4 days ago? Yet now that is a real possiblity. Expect more changes yet everyone!

Southwest Gulf? or do you mean SE Gulf