ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Just watched a video of recon flying into Irma late yesterday and ....wow.

[GCANE]

Spiral staircase

[jlauderdal]

max mayflied former director nhc works for channel 10 miami..he showed the donna track and also said its a large circulation and even if it goes over cuba south florida will fell it...reporter is alos at publix in hollywood, now water there..rick scott has put the entire state under state of emergency

[KBBOCA]

Does anyone have a list or links where I can keep up with how things are going on the islands over the next few days? I have a friend on St. John's that I am concerned about and would like to keep updated.

Storm Carib is a fantastic site
stormcarib.com

Also, usually there is an observations thread posted herein the active storms forum that will have links to local radio, webcams, etc. Check back tomorrow for that thread.

[meriland29]

Spiral staircase

What is the approx. size of Irma there?

[northjaxpro]

NHC now has the Florida Keys and Miami-Dade in the 5-day cone now in the 5 p.m. advisory.

[Prof]

When can we be more certain of the path through or by Florida? By tomorrow should we have a good idea?

[stormreader]

Looks like it's still losing some latitude in relation to the Leeward Idlands.

[thundercam96]

I'm currently stationed overseas right now (to where I could get back stateside in 12 hours) and my command is asking if I would be looking at returning back home to Florida. I have family and friends in the Daytona area, and I call that area home as well. I'm pondering whether or not it would be a feasible option to return there to help clean up. It would honestly kill me to see the scenario play out in my backyard from 6000 miles away. I have a few plans on how to get back into the area in a disaster situation (fly into ATL, Tallahassee). Regardless, I know this is still far out and things can change extremely quickly, but i'm unsure if it would be feasible to return in such conditions.

[GCANE]

Spiral staircase

What is the approx. size of Irma there?

RAMMB has been holding it pretty steady per IR analysis.

[KWT]

Irma's CDO is getting pretty large already and is forecasted to grow yet larger, given several more EWRC this is probably going to be a very large storm, especially once it latches onto the upper trough.

NHC forecast weakens Irma by 96hrs, probably in a nod to any land interaction and maybe the inflow getting disrupted to an extent by Hispaniola and Cuba. Who knows though! Also NHc going as high as they dare without going for a cat-5 forecast, but I suspect this will make it at some point, given its a 4 and still not got a perfect inner core structure given the EWRCs its undertaken.

[La Sirena]

NHC now has the Florida Keys and Miami-Dade in the 5-day cone now in the 5 p.m. advisory.

I wonder if they'll start evacuating the Keys starting on Wednesday? Obviously, that question is based on the current tracks posing a threat....

[tarheelprogrammer]

This storm is really taking off now. Is recon still in it?

[mrbagyo]

IMO, if Irma establishes a better equatorward outflow - it would easily ramp up to a 5 but right now it is just lacking - maybe the reason why Irma is still having difficulty fully clearing the eye, having almost continuous EWRC, still hasnt hit double digit positive eye temp

[Meteorcane]

Irma will almost certainly be the higher scorer this year from an ACE standpoint given the likely intensity/longevity.

[La Sirena]

I'm currently stationed overseas right now (to where I could get back stateside in 12 hours) and my command is asking if I would be looking at returning back home to Florida. I have family and friends in the Daytona area, and I call that area home as well. I'm pondering whether or not it would be a feasible option to return there to help clean up. It would honestly kill me to see the scenario play out in my backyard from 6000 miles away. I have a few plans on how to get back into the area in a disaster situation (fly into ATL, Tallahassee). Regardless, I know this is still far out and things can change extremely quickly, but i'm unsure if it would be feasible to return in such conditions.

Do you have a house that needs to be boarded up? I'm impressed your CO asked about your returning home!

[GCANE]

This storm is really taking off now. Is recon still in it?

AF305 just took off.

[GCANE]

Irma will almost certainly be the higher scorer this year from an ACE standpoint given the likely intensity/longevity.

Absolutely.
What COAMPS is forecasting is incredible.
Rivals a WPAC monster.

[Macrocane]

Irma's latest forecast track is very similar to Georges.

[Extratropical94]

Spiral staircase

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ ... .100pc.jpg

What is the approx. size of Irma there?

Latitudes are 69 miles apart, whereas longitudes at 17°N have a distance of 66 miles between them. The boxes are 2x2 degrees so they are 138x132 miles each. Therefore "visible Irma" has a diameter of roughly 500 miles. You can also look at the radius of the outermost closed isobar in the best track file

AL, 11, 2017090418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 539W, 115, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 30, 20, 30, 1011, 250, 15, 140, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 12, NEQ, 270, 120, 150, 270, genesis-num, 023,

The OCI is 1011 mb and is 250 miles out, so the diameter would also be 500 miles in this case.

Edit: Correction, best track shows nautical miles, so its 575 statute miles.