ATL: IRMA - Models

[Jagno]

Some of the ensembles from both the GFS and the ECM are now getting into the SW Gulf before curving northwards. Very few now recurve totally, so that window is almost closed.

Still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little more west, how likely did a possible Cuba strike look 3/4 days ago? Yet now that is a real possiblity. Expect more changes yet everyone!

Southwest Gulf? or do you mean SE Gulf

[Steve]

It's time for the NAMs to be useful on the continent. Ignore the west bend of Irma at the end of the run but focus on the upper pattern.

250mb wind streamlines:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

500mb Height Anomalies
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

z500mb Vort & Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

MSLP over 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Moral of the NAM is that the trough that moves out in 3.5 days does not pull up Irma.

[Pughetime12]

It's time for the NAMs to be useful on the continent. Ignore the west bend of Irma at the end of the run but focus on the upper pattern.

250mb wind streamlines:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

500mb Height Anomalies
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

z500mb Vort & Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

MSLP over 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Moral of the NAM is that the trough that moves out in 3.5 days does not pull up Irma.

So does that mean it goes into the gulf?

[BucMan2]

Hello Aric and who ever would like to answer-
The Navgem and JMA show a west coast Florida hit. How realistic is this possibility
and are these decent models ?Do you think the west shifts are over? Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

It's time for the NAMs to be useful on the continent. Ignore the west bend of Irma at the end of the run but focus on the upper pattern.

250mb wind streamlines:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

500mb Height Anomalies
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

z500mb Vort & Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

MSLP over 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Moral of the NAM is that the trough that moves out in 3.5 days does not pull up Irma.

yes that is well established.. its the mid to upper low over the MS valley .. that is very suspect.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello Aric and who ever would like to answer-
The Navgem and JMA show a west coast Florida hit. How realistic is this possibility
and are these decent models ?Do you think the west shifts are over? Thanks

there is more than tose two models showing it.. and its quite possible..

[ronjon]

Some of the ensembles from both the GFS and the ECM are now getting into the SW Gulf before curving northwards. Very few now recurve totally, so that window is almost closed.

Still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little more west, how likely did a possible Cuba strike look 3/4 days ago? Yet now that is a real possiblity. Expect more changes yet everyone!

Wise words KWT. What's starting to nag at me is HWRF, UKMET ensembles, and the EC ensembles all showing a southern (cuba), Straits, or SE GOM solution. Dare I say the Florida panhandle is not off the table yet.

[Frank P]

It's time for the NAMs to be useful on the continent. Ignore the west bend of Irma at the end of the run but focus on the upper pattern.

250mb wind streamlines:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

500mb Height Anomalies
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

z500mb Vort & Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

MSLP over 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Moral of the NAM is that the trough that moves out in 3.5 days does not pull up Irma.

So does that mean it goes into the gulf?

Most likely means that an out to sea escape is all but gone... and somewhere in the USA is going to be in trouble.. be it west coast, spine or east coast of FL and up to the GA/SC areas...

[Steve]

It's time for the NAMs to be useful on the continent. Ignore the west bend of Irma at the end of the run but focus on the upper pattern.

250mb wind streamlines:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

500mb Height Anomalies
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400

z500mb Vort & Wind
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

MSLP over 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Moral of the NAM is that the trough that moves out in 3.5 days does not pull up Irma.

So does that mean it goes into the gulf?

I don't think so unless it gets in the extreme SE Gulf around the Keys and comes up on FL. I think what Aric alluded to was a potential suspect cutoff down in the lower MS Valley. But the way the winds are at 200 and 250, I don't really think Irma could get very far in the Gulf unless it was really far south or if it pinched off that edge near the keys if the JMA/NAVGEM/CMC are right with the little hook up and in.

[TheStormExpert]

Once the soundings get into tonight's model runs will we then stop seeing the shifts?

[La Breeze]

Some of the ensembles from both the GFS and the ECM are now getting into the SW Gulf before curving northwards. Very few now recurve totally, so that window is almost closed.

Still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little more west, how likely did a possible Cuba strike look 3/4 days ago? Yet now that is a real possiblity. Expect more changes yet everyone!

Southwest Gulf? or do you mean SE Gulf

I certainly hope not the Southwest Gulf - should maybe be SE Gulf, although not wishing it on anyone. I don't see Irma visiting the Southwestern Gulf.

[KWT]

Bare in mind where the NAM has Irma, further north by a decent way than most models. Suggestive that it is weakening the ridge too much and thus probably overdoing that upper trough as well as a consequence of that, so whilst the pattern it is suggesting won't take it into the gulf, in all likelyhood it may have the pattern slightly overcooked anyway.

Sorry, SE Gulf was meant!

[La Breeze]

Some of the ensembles from both the GFS and the ECM are now getting into the SW Gulf before curving northwards. Very few now recurve totally, so that window is almost closed.

Still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little more west, how likely did a possible Cuba strike look 3/4 days ago? Yet now that is a real possiblity. Expect more changes yet everyone!

Southwest Gulf? or do you mean SE Gulf

I certainly hope not the Southwest Gulf - should maybe be SE Gulf, although not wishing it on anyone. I don't see Irma visiting the Southwestern Gulf.

[TJRE]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IR ... _with_line

NHC 5 day track loop

[WAcyclone]

We just added ECMWF simulated satellite to weather.us for free! Check it out!
IR: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html
WV: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html

This is incredible! I have never seen such a detailed ECMWF IR forecast

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS is running this should have some of the data incorporated into it..

[Steve]

18z GFS is running this should have some of the data incorporated into it..

From the discussion: Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

I don't know if they'll have much because the soundings are 1800UTC as well.

[La Breeze]

Bare in mind where the NAM has Irma, further north by a decent way than most models. Suggestive that it is weakening the ridge too much and thus probably overdoing that upper trough as well as a consequence of that, so whilst the pattern it is suggesting won't take it into the gulf, in all likelyhood it may have the pattern slightly overcooked anyway.

Sorry, SE Gulf was meant!

Phew! Thanks, had my heart skip a beat there.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS is running this should have some of the data incorporated into it..

From the discussion: Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

I don't know if they'll have much because the soundings are 1800UTC as well.

dont worry, data giets assimilated almost in real times.

[AxaltaRacing24]