ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Steve]

So does that mean it goes into the gulf?

I don't think so unless it gets in the extreme SE Gulf around the Keys and comes up on FL. I think what Aric alluded to was a potential suspect cutoff down in the lower MS Valley. But the way the winds are at 200 and 250, I don't really think Irma could get very far in the Gulf unless it was really far south or if it pinched off that edge near the keys if the JMA/NAVGEM/CMC are right with the little hook up and in.

Less we forget Katrina? Also, as we all know with a deepening Hurricane, it will have an influence on the high pressure over its top.

Looking at the official NHC track, the track has Irma tracking closely along the northern coast of Cuba through day 5 from today. Beyond that it is a HUGE guess.

Bottom line; after 5 days, no one is off the hook.

I hear you. I just disagree in this case.

[Frank P]

Looks WNW at h102

[xironman]

18zz GFS steering trend:

Its a bit faster with the storm, kind of like the old problem "A train leaves Chicago at 60 mph and another leaves New York at 70 mph, when will they meet" The storm is going to meet the weakness somewhere, but who knows.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 102, making a Beeline for Andros Island

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS, bombing out:

[Frank P]

Hour 102, making a Beeline for Andros Island

gonna be close could be a tad south on the next point or right on it..

[Steve]

There’s no need to discount it. The trend started at 12z with further north adjustments and 18z is continuing that trend. This is very significant especially with upper air data assimilated in.

I don't think he was discounting it - just cautioning that there would likely be some changes. And then the Gulfstream IV data gets in the 00z suite, so we'll know even more then.

But he did say to discount it. It has new data in it and is a good reference to see how future runs might trend tonight. The 00z runs will certainly be key to see how things progress.

Oh. I think that was Alyono talking about it turning up north too fast but it ended up smoothing out. I don't think that was Aric unless I missed that post. Sorry if so.

[CrazyC83]

It's better news for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola though - they would only need a TS Warning for Puerto Rico with this, and even then maybe only for the north coast.

[stormreader]

Looks WNW at h102

Don't think thats good for the gulf. Could mean an evening out and extension of the ridge farther west on top of the storm. Increase in forward speed would also favor a farther west motion. Have to watch closely next two days worth of runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

EPIC

[Frank P]

H114 still looks wnw to me.. going to have to make a turn soon for S FL

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS:



Man that has to make people squirm

[Steve]

Yeah, 904 at 114 deepening right off the coast. This isn't the first run that deepens Irma just South or SE of Florida. We're talking the GFS seeing Category 5 conditions right off the coast. Lots of destruction if this comes in.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[Frank P]

120 there's the turn ...damn... maybe NW now

correction still looks WNW... my eyes are failing me...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow

[SouthFLTropics]

WOW

[stormreader]

Wow

Critical mass there. The turn..... Let's see.

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFS is giving Irma basically a perfect environment to intensify. Very warm waters, a moist atmosphere, low shear, and even a strong upper-level outflow jet due to the trough to the north. I'm not saying I buy the sub 900 mb pressures, but if this avoids land interaction, look out.