ATL: IRMA - Models

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6121 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:07 pm

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6122 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:07 pm

18z GFS absolutely insane run... To unreal even for the movies... My goodness...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6123 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:07 pm

Historic and Catastrophic

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6124 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:07 pm

there is the low forming over the MS valley and dropping SW .. but look at that huge polar outflow jet ! thats why the GFS bombs this thing out .. besides the heat content
well that low is farther north.. over the ohio valley.. interesting..
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Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6125 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:07 pm

Steve wrote:
Big Easy Breeze wrote:
Steve wrote:
I don't think so unless it gets in the extreme SE Gulf around the Keys and comes up on FL. I think what Aric alluded to was a potential suspect cutoff down in the lower MS Valley. But the way the winds are at 200 and 250, I don't really think Irma could get very far in the Gulf unless it was really far south or if it pinched off that edge near the keys if the JMA/NAVGEM/CMC are right with the little hook up and in.


Less we forget Katrina? Also, as we all know with a deepening Hurricane, it will have an influence on the high pressure over its top.

Looking at the official NHC track, the track has Irma tracking closely along the northern coast of Cuba through day 5 from today. Beyond that it is a HUGE guess.

Bottom line; after 5 days, no one is off the hook.


I hear you. I just disagree in this case.


Noting to disagree with. My point is; beyond 5 days, too much conjecture. The NHC only goes out to 5 days. Beyond that, who knows and their really is nothing to factually state as being remotely accurate.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6126 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:08 pm

H132 there's the turn into S FL
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6127 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:08 pm

WOW
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6128 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:08 pm

18z GFS:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6129 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:09 pm

895 Cat 5 coming in at 120. Still coming up at 891mb at 132 hours. That's late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=120

132
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=132

2017 is looking like a year that's going to down on the list with some of the most memorable seasons we've seen.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6130 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:09 pm

Ummmmmmmm it can stop now.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6131 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:09 pm

ridge to north still looks strong..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6132 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:10 pm

My lord!!! :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6133 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:10 pm

Key Largo...shades of Bogie and Becall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6134 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:10 pm

Such a small degree of difference between west and east coast landfalls as to make it a harrowing last second call on something you don't have time for at the last second...


This is going to be an intense series of GFS runs with huge outcome over the next few days...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6135 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:10 pm

Frank P wrote:ridge to north still looks strong..


it will be steering more in the upper levels.. that low is present again just farther north this time..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6136 Postby Mouton » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:10 pm

Last few frames near cuba, storm looks like in creeping mode around 79/80W. Looks a tad north of the NHC plan for 5 days. Also, appears to be turning NW in past few frames. So, where does that move stop, at 305 or 360? Looks like no time over Cuba which means a record storm for SE Florida and the lower Keys.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6137 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:10 pm

Goodbye Dade County

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6138 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:11 pm

H138 moving NNW, maybe up the spine again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6139 Postby MetroMike » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:11 pm

Up the spine again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6140 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:12 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?


may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains
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