ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Keeps coming NNW with center about to Asheville at 186 hours. Jose again gets blocked and deflected back. Not sure what the end game has in store for him. Last run had him coming back and swiping NC as a Cat 3.

[Vdogg]

Hmm. Guess it's another wait for the Euro. Gotta work tomorrow so I'll check it in the morning. Not sure I'm buying this track. It's just...odd. Need to see the ensembles.

[Vdogg]

So, wouldn't the fujiwara effect come into play with Jose so close and start to pull Irma east a little?

[Steve]

The entire Florida Peninsula hit with hurricane (64kt) + winds.

This would be CATASTROPHIC!

Someone used the term earlier "A Generational Storm".
I'd like to stop this ride and get off. PLEASE!

That was me. 2017, with our second Cat 4 hit in the wings, is getting to be a generational year as well. For those of us who are semi old, 1985, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2005 are some of the benchmark years with 2004 and 2005 both featuring multiple major hits. 2017 looks to join that this weekend. We still have a good 45 days of prime season ahead too. Probably belongs in the "Indicators for 2017" thread on Talkin' Tropics. But the indicators to me are there are spots near the US Coast that can support extremely powerful hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

So, wouldn't the fujiwara effect come into play with Jose so close and start to pull It a east a little?

Too far away. Nicole was closer than that and couldn't influence Matthew's track.

[CrazyC83]

The entire Florida Peninsula hit with hurricane (64kt) + winds.

This would be CATASTROPHIC!

Someone used the term earlier "A Generational Storm".
I'd like to stop this ride and get off. PLEASE!

That was me. 2017, with our second Cat 4 hit in the wings, is getting to be a generational year as well. For those of us who are semi old, 1985, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2005 are some of the benchmark years with 2004 and 2005 both featuring multiple major hits. 2017 looks to join that this weekend. We still have a good 45 days of prime season ahead too. Probably belongs in the "Indicators for 2017" thread on Talkin' Tropics. But the indicators to me are there are spots near the US Coast that can support extremely powerful hurricanes.

There's no reason why you can't get a very intense hurricane as late as November as well - 1932 a classic example...

[Alyono]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

It's hard not to think of the Labor Day hurricane when you watch that model run. It's happened before.

nothing like the Labor Day hurricane though. That was basically a large tornado in terms of its size. This one is gigantic! This is a large, WPAC typhoon moving in

[Alyono]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

Wasn't the GFS modeling Irma to be in the 920's now, east of the islands? GFS likely is 20-30mb too low. Not that it makes a difference impact wise, anyways.

No, GFS was in the 960s east of the islands

[blp]

Well I will have to say that if the Florida shield exists then it must be activated immediately!

[Steve]

I have a hard time buying that NW drive after the Southern Florida landfall. Wouldn't it be more likely that it run back up North through east coast looking for some more energy? Especially taking the cold air into consideration...Nags Head/Va Beach braces for whatever is left of her.

*Disclaimer*

I'm no Met...I don't even like making "predictions". I sometimes post my thoughts for others to see and am in NO way a voice of experience or professionalism.

It's got to go west at some point anyway. Aric was showing the cutoff down in the lower MS Valley which acts to draw it up and pinwheel it back while a surface high from Canada comes down from the north. Straight physics that even under the last run where it went back out and came in near GA/SC Border, it came up and hooked west toward southern Indiana. ECMWF shows it as well but it comes in farther north and on a NW heading through the SE US toward WV/SE Ohio.

More 18Z runs should be out soon.

[CrazyC83]

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

Wasn't the GFS modeling Irma to be in the 920's now, east of the islands? GFS likely is 20-30mb too low. Not that it makes a difference impact wise, anyways.

No, GFS was in the 960s east of the islands

This would basically be Katrina or Rita at peak intensity making landfall.

[bella_may]

I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it

[Kingarabian]

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

Wasn't the GFS modeling Irma to be in the 920's now, east of the islands? GFS likely is 20-30mb too low. Not that it makes a difference impact wise, anyways.

No, GFS was in the 960s east of the islands

Some GFS runs were like this:

[Nimbus]

Well I will have to say that if the Florida shield exists then it must be activated immediately!

Where was the 18Z GFS initialized this run?

Looked like it was down near 16.5N at 54W.

[Alyono]

I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it

modeling is MUCH MUCH better than it was 12 years ago

We all know Florida is likely to get it. The question is does Hispañiola and or Cuba weaken it first?

[plasticup]

I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it

Not sure Katrina turned out better. Unless Cuba's mountains rip this thing apart, this will be a once-in-a-generation landfall somewhere.

[AutoPenalti]

I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it

That was 12 years ago.

[Ken711]

How could it maintain that intensity once it landfalls?

[GeneratorPower]

If this run verified to a tee, 3 of the most populated counties in Florida would be almost destroyed, specifically by the western side of the eye wall, and a lot of the population of the immediate areas are lower income around the lake and unfortunately loss of life may be record breaking; god forbid the dyke failed...

I think "destroyed" is a bit much. Not likely to see Cat 5 damage over a three county area.

[Steve]

The entire Florida Peninsula hit with hurricane (64kt) + winds.

This would be CATASTROPHIC!

Someone used the term earlier "A Generational Storm".
I'd like to stop this ride and get off. PLEASE!

That was me. 2017, with our second Cat 4 hit in the wings, is getting to be a generational year as well. For those of us who are semi old, 1985, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2005 are some of the benchmark years with 2004 and 2005 both featuring multiple major hits. 2017 looks to join that this weekend. We still have a good 45 days of prime season ahead too. Probably belongs in the "Indicators for 2017" thread on Talkin' Tropics. But the indicators to me are there are spots near the US Coast that can support extremely powerful hurricanes.

There's no reason why you can't get a very intense hurricane as late as November as well - 1932 a classic example...

Hey CrazyC. I know. I don't even want to think about November at this point and the shot at a late Caribbean killer system. The way I see it, the NC/NE Gulf have only had some minor systems through. And the East Coast probably isn't done yet either. I'm predicting we'll all be storm-weary by November!

GFS at 234 has Irma out of there tied into a low in Newfoundland. Jose is dancing around between 58 and 63W. It does a loop and looks like it's sort of heading back west around 24.5 North with a big giant Canadian high centered just north of the Great Lakes. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of this GFS run does with that.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=234