ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3041 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:51 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 042249
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 16 20170904
223930 1644N 05639W 7516 02529 0050 +145 +090 011034 035 021 001 00
224000 1642N 05640W 7524 02522 0053 +140 +100 010034 035 021 000 03
224030 1640N 05639W 7519 02525 0053 +140 +092 010033 033 /// /// 03
224100 1639N 05637W 7520 02525 0054 +140 +092 007032 032 017 001 00
224130 1639N 05635W 7519 02524 0051 +141 +095 005032 033 018 000 00
224200 1639N 05633W 7517 02526 0050 +141 +093 009034 034 017 001 00
224230 1639N 05631W 7520 02522 0048 +143 +087 013034 034 017 001 00
224300 1639N 05629W 7519 02522 0047 +144 +084 013035 036 019 000 00
224330 1639N 05627W 7520 02520 0046 +142 +089 011036 037 020 001 00
224400 1639N 05625W 7519 02518 0044 +143 +090 011038 038 019 001 00
224430 1639N 05623W 7521 02515 0039 +147 +084 009038 039 021 001 00
224500 1639N 05621W 7518 02517 0037 +147 +084 010037 037 022 001 00
224530 1639N 05619W 7521 02514 0038 +145 +089 010038 039 020 002 00
224600 1639N 05617W 7521 02512 0037 +143 +099 009039 041 021 001 00
224630 1639N 05615W 7518 02514 0039 +141 +095 012039 040 024 000 00
224700 1639N 05613W 7515 02516 0036 +141 +104 016039 040 025 001 00
224730 1639N 05611W 7516 02514 0030 +146 +095 014038 039 026 001 00
224800 1639N 05609W 7523 02505 0037 +141 +082 015040 041 026 001 00
224830 1639N 05607W 7526 02501 0032 +143 +093 013041 042 027 001 00
224900 1639N 05605W 7517 02507 0030 +140 +096 014044 045 027 001 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3042 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:Starting to see some blue down the eye on JSL, usually sign of a storm getting very intense. Once she works out the eye maybe run at Cat 5? Strong Cat 4 at the least. I would not be sitting comfortable if I were in Florida right now. Good thing is time is on your side.



Also closing in on warmest SST's during its life thus far


Not a good look for the Virgin Islands or Antigua, etc. God Bless those poor people, y'all are in our prayers.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3043 Postby srva80 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:53 pm

I'm 3.5 miles inland from Boca Raton, starting to get a little on edge to say the least. I'm not in a evac zone but starting to wonder is I should anyways... damn it.... ugh!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3044 Postby flamingosun » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:53 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?


I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level. :eek:


Guess you could always head to my place. It's 4.88 feet above!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3045 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:56 pm

New SSMIS overpass. Strong ice scattering in the new eyewall. This is indicative of some fairly deep convection in the eyewall.

Image
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3046 Postby bohaiboy » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:56 pm

Here is a great site for predicting storm surge potential. You can zoom in to s FL and then choose your storm category from 1-5. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSer ... ad&entry=1
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TW in Texas Hill Country :flag:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3047 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:56 pm

Ryan Maue just resurrected Harvey. Lol :cheesy:
Image

EDIT: He already deleted the tweet
Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3048 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:56 pm

flamingosun wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?


I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level. :eek:


Guess you could always head to my place. It's 4.88 feet above!


Sadly, after last weekend's near flooding event inside my home, I'm more worried about my power bill saving oak canopy falling into my living room with 80 mph+ sustained winds now. So I'll pass. TN is looking better and better....
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3049 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:57 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
dukeblue219 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
Intensity is very very likely near correct. Warm water with low shear.


890mb as it makes landfall? I mean it's probably possible, but only a couple storms globally have ever been there. Not sure I can think of anything in the Atlantic proper.

The models have been consistently overdoing the pressure lately - same for Matthew and Harvey.


After Charley, I never dismiss intensity forecasts. The models back then missed the drop in pressure and rapid intensification from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. I'll ride a 2 out, a 4? No freaking way.


Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3050 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:58 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 042256
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 13 20170904
224700 1515N 05628W 6720 03450 0047 +077 +054 314028 029 029 000 00
224730 1515N 05626W 6855 03286 0051 +084 +062 315029 029 030 000 00
224800 1514N 05623W 6952 03166 0044 +092 +060 314028 029 030 000 00
224830 1513N 05621W 6956 03158 0063 +087 //// 305030 031 031 005 01
224900 1513N 05619W 6976 03136 //// +080 //// 308028 031 034 003 01
224930 1512N 05617W 6967 03144 //// +081 //// 306029 029 032 002 01
225000 1512N 05615W 6970 03141 0042 +092 +067 311030 030 034 000 00
225030 1511N 05613W 6965 03146 0043 +091 +071 302030 031 034 000 00
225100 1510N 05611W 6969 03141 0047 +086 +078 302025 028 033 000 03
225130 1511N 05609W 6959 03151 0044 +089 +069 311022 025 028 000 00
225200 1512N 05608W 6967 03142 0048 +084 +068 311025 028 030 002 01
225230 1513N 05607W 6966 03144 //// +076 //// 304027 028 031 002 01
225300 1514N 05606W 6971 03136 0040 +092 +053 309027 029 030 002 00
225330 1516N 05604W 6967 03139 0037 +096 +027 306028 028 030 001 00
225400 1517N 05603W 6973 03133 0036 +096 +038 305028 029 027 000 00
225430 1518N 05602W 6966 03141 0031 +098 +056 307027 029 026 000 00
225500 1520N 05600W 6966 03140 0028 +098 +060 309028 029 026 001 00
225530 1521N 05559W 6970 03134 0025 +101 +065 307030 030 025 000 00
225600 1522N 05558W 6963 03141 0028 +096 +063 304032 032 029 001 00
225630 1523N 05556W 6964 03140 0029 +094 +082 305032 033 029 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3051 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:58 pm

I think with all the new weather measurements going into the next Euro run, the run could be just off shore like Matthew. Just a feeling.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3052 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:00 pm

I was just looking at the pressure differential between where the TS force winds extend out to 1004mb and the eye of Irma 944mb. That is an incredible pressure gradient.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3053 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:02 pm

Ken711 wrote:I think with all the new weather measurements going into the next Euro run, the run could be just off shore like Matthew. Just a feeling.


Or it could go through the Florida Straits and into the Northern Gulf Coast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3054 Postby Preemptivestrike » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:02 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
flamingosun wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level. :eek:


Guess you could always head to my place. It's 4.88 feet above!


Sadly, after last weekend's near flooding event inside my home, I'm more worried about my power bill saving oak canopy falling into my living room with 80 mph+ sustained winds now. So I'll pass. TN is looking better and better....


Come on up! We have plenty of room here in East TN.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3055 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:04 pm

This mission seems to not be updating on the nhc page

But this is the raw https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/re ... A-IRMA.dat

225030 1639N 05559W 7511 02506 0019 +139 +112 008057 059 031 001 00
225100 1639N 05557W 7514 02497 0014 +136 +124 009059 060 033 002 00
225130 1639N 05555W 7523 02484 0008 +141 +113 011058 059 033 002 00
225200 1639N 05553W 7525 02477 0008 +137 +111 010060 061 035 003 00
225230 1639N 05551W 7511 02490 0003 +139 +104 010059 060 037 004 00
225300 1639N 05549W 7526 02468 0003 +133 +109 009056 058 038 003 00
225330 1639N 05547W 7522 02467 9997 +135 +111 006055 056 039 003 00
225400 1639N 05545W 7506 02480 9988 +136 +115 007058 058 040 006 00
225430 1639N 05543W 7517 02464 9984 +135 +115 006058 058 038 007 00
225500 1639N 05541W 7516 02459 9977 +138 +116 005062 064 041 007 00
225530 1639N 05539W 7524 02448 9968 +140 +116 007068 070 040 008 00
225600 1639N 05537W 7519 02443 9957 +142 +113 007072 072 041 010 00
225630 1639N 05535W 7505 02454 9956 +137 +114 005073 074 043 009 00
225700 1639N 05533W 7513 02437 9949 +134 +120 003075 078 045 008 00
225730 1639N 05531W 7514 02426 9941 +135 +113 002078 078 049 007 00
225800 1639N 05529W 7514 02420 9933 +132 +122 000079 082 048 009 00
225830 1639N 05527W 7503 02420 9920 +133 +130 358084 085 052 011 00
225900 1639N 05525W 7514 02397 9904 +134 //// 359086 087 053 012 01
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3056 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Ken711 wrote:I think with all the new weather measurements going into the next Euro run, the run could be just off shore like Matthew. Just a feeling.


Or it could go through the Florida Straits and into the Northern Gulf Coast.


Anything is possible of course, I just don't see it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3057 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:06 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I wish the best for those that will be impacted first by Irma in the islands and then southern Florida .....here in Jacksonville, Florida I'm getting nervous for some serious impacts still too early for how bad exactly. Local mets are saying get ready for Irma,I feel this may be another Matthew/worse for jax metro...again too ealry to say just how bad it may get...Not a forecast check local tv and NWS NHC for official word.... :flag:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3058 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:06 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
dukeblue219 wrote:
890mb as it makes landfall? I mean it's probably possible, but only a couple storms globally have ever been there. Not sure I can think of anything in the Atlantic proper.

The models have been consistently overdoing the pressure lately - same for Matthew and Harvey.


After Charley, I never dismiss intensity forecasts. The models back then missed the drop in pressure and rapid intensification from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. I'll ride a 2 out, a 4? No freaking way.


Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?


I'll give you a hint. I had friends that evacuated from Punta Gorda to the Orlando area during Charley.

Their car got trashed by debris.

You'll have to calculate for yourself once the forecast becomes clearer in the next 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3059 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:07 pm

Ken711 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Ken711 wrote:I think with all the new weather measurements going into the next Euro run, the run could be just off shore like Matthew. Just a feeling.


Or it could go through the Florida Straits and into the Northern Gulf Coast.


Anything is possible of course, I just don't see it.


And I don't see it turning as much North, I see it going more NW after the Straits.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3060 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:07 pm

GOES-16 is once again owning GOES-13 in capturing warmer eye temperatures. This is in spite of the former viewing Irma from the other side of the latter's longitude.

Image
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