ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Second NOAA pass.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042326
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 16 20170904
231700 1620N 05505W 6969 02936 9804 +105 +105 293078 081 077 016 00
231730 1622N 05504W 6951 02938 9795 +114 +114 299089 094 080 020 00
231800 1623N 05503W 6980 02881 9766 +114 +114 293087 089 083 013 00
231830 1625N 05503W 6966 02874 9737 +109 +109 289091 092 091 015 00
231900 1626N 05502W 6968 02841 9710 +113 +113 288095 096 095 021 00
231930 1628N 05501W 6985 02781 9665 +120 +120 285094 099 096 054 00
232000 1630N 05500W 6977 02755 9611 +129 //// 287076 090 104 016 01
232030 1631N 05500W 6957 02751 9536 +136 +117 286067 074 101 007 03
232100 1633N 05459W 6971 02711 9504 +151 +110 285053 062 074 001 00
232130 1635N 05459W 6967 02694 9480 +153 +114 284044 049 058 005 00
232200 1636N 05458W 6969 02673 9456 +153 +128 281036 040 049 003 00
232230 1638N 05458W 6970 02656 9436 +156 +128 286026 033 039 002 00
232300 1640N 05457W 6966 02648 9422 +161 +102 281017 022 033 000 00
232330 1642N 05457W 6967 02636 9416 +154 +129 199003 011 028 001 03
232400 1643N 05457W 6974 02626 9412 +152 +131 089014 018 027 001 00
232430 1645N 05457W 6965 02637 9414 +152 +134 091028 032 033 001 00
232500 1647N 05457W 6968 02640 9422 +153 +135 087045 053 045 002 03
232530 1649N 05457W 6966 02656 9439 +146 +141 087059 061 056 001 00
232600 1650N 05456W 6967 02667 9452 +149 +135 095066 067 060 002 03
232630 1650N 05456W 6967 02667 9465 +147 +140 103069 071 066 002 00
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042329
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 20 20170904
231930 1636N 05402W 7512 02477 9993 +131 +123 177070 073 047 005 00
232000 1636N 05400W 7514 02476 0001 +128 +125 172064 066 045 007 00
232030 1637N 05358W 7521 02475 0007 +130 +119 166063 065 043 006 00
232100 1637N 05356W 7512 02490 0010 +129 +119 168063 063 041 007 00
232130 1637N 05354W 7520 02484 0016 +130 +122 168063 065 042 006 00
232200 1637N 05352W 7525 02485 0024 +128 +113 165061 061 040 005 00
232230 1637N 05350W 7516 02496 0024 +132 +102 166058 059 038 006 00
232300 1637N 05348W 7527 02491 0028 +136 +098 166059 059 038 007 00
232330 1638N 05346W 7526 02494 0033 +134 +098 166059 060 036 007 00
232400 1638N 05344W 7513 02511 0036 +133 +099 163059 060 036 006 00
232430 1638N 05342W 7512 02516 0043 +129 +106 160055 055 036 007 00
232500 1638N 05340W 7524 02507 0039 +136 +105 160053 055 035 007 00
232530 1638N 05339W 7523 02510 0039 +140 +102 159052 053 036 006 00
232600 1638N 05337W 7508 02529 0037 +146 +099 158053 053 035 006 00
232630 1639N 05335W 7513 02526 0044 +141 +098 160051 052 036 006 00
232700 1639N 05333W 7517 02522 0047 +137 +110 161050 051 037 005 00
232730 1639N 05331W 7513 02529 0052 +138 +098 160050 051 036 005 00
232800 1639N 05329W 7518 02527 0054 +138 +115 159049 049 036 003 00
232830 1639N 05327W 7529 02518 0055 +137 +121 159049 050 031 004 00
232900 1639N 05325W 7513 02537 0057 +140 +099 155050 051 031 004 00

[GCANE]

Eyewall is improving by the minute.
IR presentation is incredible.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Michele B]

890mb as it makes landfall? I mean it's probably possible, but only a couple storms globally have ever been there. Not sure I can think of anything in the Atlantic proper.

The models have been consistently overdoing the pressure lately - same for Matthew and Harvey.

After Charley, I never dismiss intensity forecasts. The models back then missed the drop in pressure and rapid intensification from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. I'll ride a 2 out, a 4? No freaking way.

Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?

You gotta get all the way out of the state, and then go west. I hear Rome, Ga is nice this time of year!

[RL3AO]

Winds finally caught up to the pressure you'd expect in a low end and large cat 4. I suspect it won't stay steady state for long.

[Snowman67]

The "hurricane expert" on the Weather Channel scenario just went over about 3 different scenarios which could bring Irma as far west as Texas or as far east as Maine. Basically, it had to do with the strength/weakness and positioning of the trough that may be still be in the mid atlantic to NE U.S. vs the strength and position of the ridge currently to the North and East of Irma.

This was the first time I have heard any met specifically mention the possibility of this hitting Texas. A bit disconcerting to say the least...

[eastcoastFL]

After Charley, I never dismiss intensity forecasts. The models back then missed the drop in pressure and rapid intensification from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. I'll ride a 2 out, a 4? No freaking way.

Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?

You gotta get all the way out of the state, and then go west. I hear Rome, Ga is nice this time of year!

What are your plans? Or are you just a somewhat "safe" area?

[NJWxHurricane]

The "hurricane expert" on the weather scenario just went over about 3 different scenarios which could bring Irma as far west as Texas or as far east as Maine. Basically, it had to do with the strength/weakness and positioning of the trough that may be still be in the mid atlantic to NE U.S. vs the strength and position of the ridge currently to the North and East of Irma.

This was the first time I have heard any met specifically mention the possibility of this hitting Texas. A bit disconcerting to say the least...

nothing is set in stone yet

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904829634440781827

[RL3AO]

135kt FL winds...

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the deepening is happening fast !

232930 1655N 05448W 6980 02775 9653 +118 //// 120131 135 110 030 05
233000 1655N 05448W 6949 02823 9664 +119 //// 122129 132 111 034 05
233030 1655N 05447W 6970 02823 9701 +109 //// 125130 132 108 039 01
233100 1656N 05446W 6962 02857 9727 +108 +108 129125 129 105 026 00
233130 1657N 05445W 6964 02884 9747 +113 +113 128117 122 101 015 00

would up winds to 135 to 140 maybe..

[FLeastcoast]

I'll give you a hint. I had friends that evacuated from Punta Gorda to the Orlando area during Charley.

Their car got trashed by debris.

You'll have to calculate for yourself once the forecast becomes clearer in the next 48 hours.

That's my plan at the moment. My mother and her dog are thinking of driving towards the western Carolinas. We may tag along. If the current models verify then not much of Florida will be too safe. Maybe the pan handle.

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

I have reservations in knoxville...that should be ok right?

[Michele B]

The problem with evacuating from Irma is that the only way to go in Florida is North.... and Irma is headed the same way. It's a horrific scenario. How far North is considered safe? If the worst case scenario unfolds (she rides up the whole peninsula as a major), there is no place to drive to. Everyone will be fighting to get North, historically nightmarish traffic.

If I were in the Keys, I'd be getting out now. Tomorrow I'm working out my evac options. If the models are the same tomorrow night as they are now, I might need to hit the road on Wednesday. Not going to put up with the masses on Thursday.

Using GFS as guide that really only leaves Turnpike to I-75 to get out (27, 17, I-95, I-75 from naples can be used also, then maybe 98) But it would be a lot of people heading toward the panhandle or Atlanta.

Just heard from some friends heading home down 17 - there are LINES waiting for gas.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042339
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 21 20170904
232930 1640N 05323W 7523 02527 0060 +140 +089 156049 049 030 003 00
233000 1640N 05321W 7521 02528 0064 +136 +096 159049 049 031 003 03
233030 1640N 05319W 7525 02527 0066 +137 +096 161046 047 030 002 00
233100 1639N 05317W 7514 02538 0066 +134 +104 158044 045 030 002 00
233130 1639N 05315W 7525 02529 0067 +136 +105 157045 045 032 001 00
233200 1639N 05313W 7518 02537 0068 +135 +103 158046 047 032 001 00
233230 1639N 05311W 7522 02533 0069 +136 +102 155046 047 029 002 00
233300 1639N 05309W 7516 02539 0064 +143 +084 154047 047 031 002 00
233330 1640N 05307W 7499 02556 0070 +137 +090 152046 047 026 003 03
233400 1641N 05306W 7522 02537 0070 +139 +096 155046 048 025 002 00
233430 1642N 05304W 7508 02555 0071 +140 +104 157043 045 024 002 00
233500 1643N 05302W 7497 02568 0070 +141 +097 153038 039 023 003 00
233530 1645N 05301W 7497 02568 0074 +136 +105 156040 041 024 002 03
233600 1647N 05301W 7516 02546 0073 +141 +103 157040 041 027 003 00
233630 1650N 05301W 7520 02542 0075 +139 +104 155041 042 026 003 00
233700 1652N 05301W 7522 02542 0074 +140 +105 154045 046 028 003 00
233730 1654N 05301W 7520 02545 0073 +141 +106 153047 048 027 002 00
233800 1657N 05301W 7519 02546 0071 +146 +084 148048 048 027 002 00
233830 1659N 05302W 7522 02543 0075 +142 +090 146047 048 026 002 00
233900 1701N 05301W 7521 02546 0078 +140 +089 145047 048 027 003 00

[SouthDadeFish]

135kt FL winds...

This would support 120 knots. Still intensifying. Radar presentation is also very impressive.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042336
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 17 20170904
232700 1651N 05454W 6966 02699 9480 +145 +141 108076 077 067 002 01
232730 1652N 05453W 6968 02709 //// +133 //// 113079 080 076 004 01
232800 1653N 05452W 6962 02732 9543 +137 //// 117082 083 084 008 01
232830 1653N 05450W 6969 02739 9570 +125 //// 120089 097 112 005 01
232900 1654N 05449W 6953 02782 9610 +121 //// 122112 121 112 004 01
232930 1655N 05448W 6980 02775 9653 +118 //// 120131 135 110 030 05
233000 1655N 05448W 6949 02823 9664 +119 //// 122129 132 111 034 05
233030 1655N 05447W 6970 02823 9701 +109 //// 125130 132 108 039 01
233100 1656N 05446W 6962 02857 9727 +108 +108 129125 129 105 026 00
233130 1657N 05445W 6964 02884 9747 +113 +113 128117 122 101 015 00
233200 1658N 05444W 6964 02906 9766 +112 +112 127110 114 096 011 00
233230 1659N 05443W 6968 02921 9795 +111 +111 131105 106 093 012 00
233300 1700N 05441W 6971 02941 9832 +111 +111 135109 112 086 023 00
233330 1701N 05440W 6962 02963 9836 +102 +101 132109 110 078 027 00
233400 1702N 05439W 6967 02970 9857 +091 +091 135105 109 076 013 00
233430 1703N 05438W 6973 02980 9890 +092 +092 135102 105 073 010 00
233500 1704N 05437W 6970 02994 9897 +092 +092 133099 101 070 008 00
233530 1705N 05436W 6975 03003 9912 +092 +092 133096 099 068 009 00
233600 1706N 05434W 6951 03031 9915 +098 +098 137093 098 067 022 00
233630 1708N 05433W 6974 03015 9936 +103 +103 137089 096 068 030 03
$$

135knt flight level/112knt smrf

[Iune]

looks like the deepening is happening fast !

232930 1655N 05448W 6980 02775 9653 +118 //// 120131 135 110 030 05
233000 1655N 05448W 6949 02823 9664 +119 //// 122129 132 111 034 05
233030 1655N 05447W 6970 02823 9701 +109 //// 125130 132 108 039 01
233100 1656N 05446W 6962 02857 9727 +108 +108 129125 129 105 026 00
233130 1657N 05445W 6964 02884 9747 +113 +113 128117 122 101 015 00

would up winds to 135 to 140 maybe..

Do you happen to know of any document or website that might show how the recon data is formatted? I've been able to read the coordinates and pressure readings in these posts, but I can't make sense of much more.

[johngaltfla]

This could be making landfall at the beginning of the NFL season...

Buccaneers-Dolphins is looking dicey. 1 PM Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens)

The game is being moved possibly to Friday night. I think they'll issue a decision tomorrow morning.

[NJWxHurricane]

business owners in the panhandle and s georgia will be making quite the money