ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT12 KNHC 042343
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 04/23:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 42 min N
054 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2594 m
D. 104 kt
E. 195 deg 12 nm
F. 285 deg 99 kt
G. 197 deg 14 nm
H. 944 mb
I. 11 C / 3051 m
J. 16 C / 3050 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0611A IRMA OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 135 KT 033 / 15 NM 23:29:40Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 125 / 12 KT
;

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 23:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 23:23:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°42'N 54°57'W (16.7N 54.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 398 statute miles (640 km) to the NE (51°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,594m (8,510ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSW (195°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 285° at 99kts (From the WNW at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSW (197°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 135kts (~ 155.4mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) from the flight level center at 23:29:40Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 12kts (From the SE at 14mph)

[Preemptivestrike]

That's my plan at the moment. My mother and her dog are thinking of driving towards the western Carolinas. We may tag along. If the current models verify then not much of Florida will be too safe. Maybe the pan handle.

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

I have reservations in knoxville...that should be ok right?

Yeah we're fine here in Knoville.

[GCANE]

[p1nheadlarry]

I don't have a link, but saw a recent microwave pass. Yikes is all I can say. Eyewall very symmetric as opposed to this morning.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042356
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 19 20170904
234700 1730N 05408W 6970 03123 0024 +091 +070 127069 070 047 003 00
234730 1731N 05407W 6966 03131 0030 +087 +073 124070 070 045 003 00
234800 1732N 05406W 6965 03133 0030 +090 +070 124069 070 047 002 00
234830 1734N 05405W 6967 03133 0029 +092 +067 121067 069 045 003 00
234900 1735N 05404W 6968 03132 0027 +095 +061 119067 068 045 003 00
234930 1736N 05402W 6969 03136 0028 +099 +048 114068 070 045 001 00
235000 1737N 05401W 6966 03139 0029 +100 +043 113066 067 045 001 00
235030 1738N 05400W 6967 03140 0027 +103 +042 116066 067 046 000 00
235100 1739N 05359W 6967 03143 0034 +100 +047 117062 066 047 001 00
235130 1740N 05358W 6969 03142 0043 +092 +056 119057 061 045 003 00
235200 1741N 05357W 6966 03148 0039 +097 +054 123060 063 043 004 00
235230 1742N 05355W 6967 03146 0040 +097 +055 124061 063 042 004 00
235300 1743N 05354W 6967 03148 0043 +096 +061 125062 062 043 004 00
235330 1744N 05353W 6967 03150 0040 +095 +062 125061 062 042 003 00
235400 1745N 05352W 6966 03151 0046 +095 +064 126060 061 039 002 00
235430 1747N 05350W 6967 03151 0045 +097 +063 127060 060 040 001 00
235500 1748N 05349W 6967 03153 0051 +093 +064 130062 063 040 000 00
235530 1749N 05348W 6967 03153 0054 +091 +057 131066 067 038 001 00
235600 1750N 05347W 6967 03154 0057 +090 +058 129064 066 037 004 00
235630 1751N 05345W 6969 03154 0058 +090 +057 129062 064 039 001 00
$$
;

[dukeblue219]

Do you happen to know of any document or website that might show how the recon data is formatted? I've been able to read the coordinates and pressure readings in these posts, but I can't make sense of much more.

A met posted in the recon thread yesterday explaining how to decipher recon data.

It's not strictly necessary, of course, unless you're familiar with it enough that it's faster just to look at the raw feed. There are free websites that decode all of it in real time and show the flight paths graphically as well. Not sure what the policy is on external linking here?

[Evil Jeremy]

I would not be surprised in the slightest if this went to a Cat 5 by tomorrow morning. There's really nothing stopping Irma, right now at least.

Honestly, I'm expecting it. EWRC completed, entering increasingly warmer waters, some beautiful convection flare up in the past few hours. There is literally nothing to hamper further intensification this evening. Winds have gone up 20mph in the past 6 hours, she's already running.

[Blizzard96x]

Is anyone surprised a storm with 943mb is at 140mph? I figured it would need to be a little deeper to get that kind of wind speeds at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like all inner eye convection has now collapsed and a very large eye is clearly out with very deep convection building ... could see cat 5 on this deepening phase !

[1900hurricane]

AF drop in eye measured 944 with 12 kt of sfc. wind so 943 mb. The eye dropsonde also measured some subsidence warming in the eye with a slight inversion near 800 mb. Looks like the inner-core structure is improving.

Here's the drop just for reference.

[Michele B]

Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?

You gotta get all the way out of the state, and then go west. I hear Rome, Ga is nice this time of year!

What are your plans? Or are you just a somewhat "safe" area?

If you are asking me (Michele B), I am inland FL - way east of Sarasota somewhat. Charley went right over our house! It's a strong house, built in 1970. We board up, we pray, we take our chances! I feel safe here, but of course, I cannot recommend that for anyone else, cause it depends on what their residence looks like. I had just had a new roof put on months before Charley. Different story 13 years later, but - oh well.....

I lived in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale growing up, so I'm used to hurricane preps. Son-in-law tried to "outrun" a hurricane b/c his wife was petrified (the storm never made it to Broward Cty, btw) I forget the year. Sorry, don't remember which one! They ended up stuck in traffic, could barely find gas, and it took them about 12 1/2 hours to get to Jax!!!

I'll never run away from a storm. I'll find a good, safe place close to home to be, assuming I have something to come home to! If I KNEW my home was going to be gone, or uninhabitable, I'd probably leave. But part of living in FL my whole life is: I ALWAYS chose to live in a house that could withstand hurricanes....it goes with the territory!

[Exalt]

Is anyone surprised a storm with 943mb is at 140mph? I figured it would need to be a little deeper to get that kind of wind speeds at the surface.

Atlantic is weird in that wind speeds tend to either lag really far behind or speed past pressure requirements. Take Matthew for example, who hit 165mph winds at 934 mb.

[p1nheadlarry]

Eyewall is improving by the minute.
IR presentation is incredible.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Yea, core looks phenomenal

[Shuriken]

Isabel-style giant eye firming up now. Might get to see some impressive vortices tomorrow.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks like all inner eye convection has now collapsed and a very large eye is clearly out with very deep convection building ... could see cat 5 on this deepening phase !

East or west of 55?

[marciacubed]

The game is being moved possibly to Friday night. I think they'll issue a decision tomorrow morning.

There will be mandatory evacs by Friday night if the NHC forecast is even close.

Agreed. I think the game gets moved to their bye week in week 11 or possibly to Atlanta for Sunday.

There are more important issues than a football game on Sunday to deal with. Not many as I am a huge Bucs fan, but this is right up there.

Huge Dolphins fan here I hope they move it to Thursday. We might not have power on Sunday to watch the game.

[p1nheadlarry]

Is anyone surprised a storm with 943mb is at 140mph? I figured it would need to be a little deeper to get that kind of wind speeds at the surface.

Atlantic is weird in that wind speeds tend to either lag really far behind or speed past pressure requirements. Take Matthew for example, who hit 165mph winds at 934 mb.

Matt was also in a higher pressure environment iirc, central caribbean

[Raebie]

I am going to get absolutely nothing accomplished this week.

[MGC]

30 nautical wide eye according to latest VDM.......MGC