ATL: IRMA - Models

[jlauderdal]

I'm having a hard time believing intensity estimates. Of course it could happen but some of these models seem a tad overdone.

a tad, lol...try about 30-40 mb..although the labor keys storm 1935 was 892 so it can happen..andrew around 925

[birddogsc]

For everyone asking whether any new data made it to the 18z GFS, see below

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904833383888453639

The G-IV was to be in the area at 16Z. Data probably did not make it into the 18Z run.

[AdamFirst]

Could easily see a storm in the 920s. The conditions are perfect right around the Peninsula.

[TheStormExpert]

Tonight's model runs will be very crucial and interesting to say the least. If trends continue for Florida then I will begin prepping ASAP tomorrow!

[jlauderdal]

Pretty much all models that had Irma heading into cubs (need to wait for UKMET) have now shifted north to off the Cuban coast, which is even more bad news for Florida

Hopefully the next runs with the data will make it clear but the fact that all the models are starting to converge in the same area is disconcerting

look at at this way, if they are all converging on the same solution and they all have error rates out to 6 days then they can all be wrong together in our favor...time will tell,

[tolakram]

Could easily see a storm in the 920s. The conditions are perfect right around the Peninsula.

See, this is the thing .... describe perfect? What will shear be in 5 days, mid level moisture, etc. Of course it's possible, but do we have any reliable data showing these conditions will exist? Right now shear near the Peninsula is 25kts out of the west. Hardly perfect.

I guess my larger point is to tone down some of the posts and stop parsing words, which has lead to a few arguments today. We will have a better idea in a few days.

[TheStormExpert]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.



18z GEFS Ensembles.

[gatorcane]

Well the TVCN consensus track is right through South Florida without any land interaction from Cuba or any of the Greater Antilles...obviously concerning. But we have been obliterated by models in the 5-6 day range before and by the time we get under 3 days they have shifted off of us. In this case there is above normal uncertainty on how Irma may turn when it nears Florida. You can see the variation of the GFS ensembles as an example between the 12Z and 18Z runs. There is still a distinct possibility Irma can turn N then NE missing South Florida just to the east. Still time for models to shift.

[SouthFLTropics]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.



18z GEFS Ensembles.

Not very often that you see clustering that tight at the 5 day range. It seems apparent that the models are pretty confident at this time in their solution.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.steve-weather.com/genswrf/smc-slp1.shtml

[GeneratorPower]

Models seem to have locked in. But we will all be watching for sudden changes.

[jlauderdal]

Well the TVCN consensus track is right through South Florida withou any land interaction from Cuba or any of the Greater Antilles...obviously concerning. But we have been obliterated by models in the 5-6 day range before and by the time we get under 3 days they have shifted off of us. In this case there is above normal uncertainty on how Irma may turn when it nears Florida. You can see the variation of the GFS ensembles as an example. There is still a distinct possibility Irma can turn N then NE missing South Florida just to the east. Still time for models to shift.

for sure, this thing has a shot to stay east of florida, its really unknown at this point but we do know its heading in our direction and its intense...best to prepare now like we will take major hurricane winds...water, gas and food you can always use later..btw, gas stations are very quiet at 6 am

[TheStormExpert]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.



18z GEFS Ensembles.

Not very often that you see clustering that tight at the 5 day range. It seems apparent that the models are pretty confident at this time in their solution.

They do seem confident right now, but I've seen in the past where as we advance forward they can trend left and right some after the hard right turn.

[stormreader]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.



18z GEFS Ensembles.

Those ensemble clusters along the Fl West Coast immediately catch your eye.

[Blinhart]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.



18z GEFS Ensembles.

How can the 00Z models be out already when the 18Z is running right now????

[RL3AO]

How can the 00Z models be out already when the 18Z is running right now????

They aren't really 0z model runs (well, I guess the statistical ones are). I wish people wouldn't post them and call them that, but that ship has long sailed.

[AdamFirst]

Note the 18z GFS Ensembles that take it over the eastern Gulf have it landfalling in Cuba. Landfall is key. Operational GFS didn't show that.

[bamajammer4eva]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/y3x525P.png

18z GEFS Ensembles.

If the black line is the mean then why do the GEFS loops show the center offshore of the West coast?

[Stormcenter]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

[RL3AO]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

South FL is now in the cone. The "GFS hits us in 12 days so we'll be okay" doesn't really seem to apply here. I hope people don't wait until Wednesday to start preparing.