Blown Away wrote:How far N will the NHC need to shift that 5 day point? Upper Keys my guess.
I don't think the cone will move that much at all since she is still on a slightly south of west movement still.
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Blown Away wrote:How far N will the NHC need to shift that 5 day point? Upper Keys my guess.
sponger wrote:bohaiboy wrote:Here is a great site for predicting storm surge potential. You can zoom in to s FL and then choose your storm category from 1-5. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSer ... ad&entry=1
That surge will be epic if GFS verifies. Everything East of US 1 up to Cutler is under water in that scenario. Evacs are going to be massive and unprecedented. Better book now folks! Tallahassee is my refuge and I booked it last night waiting on the Euro.
Aric Dunn wrote:I know the western atlantic pressure field will be slightly different when the GFS takes this to the sub 900's.. but can you imagine the wind speed ? its 945 and 140 mph.. if it were to drop another 40 to 60 ++ mb ?
TheStormExpert wrote:Too get an idea as to how warm the waters are around Florida and in that vicinity. 30°C equates to 86°F.
Ntxw wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I know the western atlantic pressure field will be slightly different when the GFS takes this to the sub 900's.. but can you imagine the wind speed ? its 945 and 140 mph.. if it were to drop another 40 to 60 ++ mb ?
She's not that small as it is now so as she drops pressure her wind field will expand rather than precipitous rise in winds. The storms that pack crazy winds with the sub 900s (not all) tends to be tightly packed cores. If this thing were about to really tank in the upper echelon of pressures we'd probably get an idea if BD starts showing ring of Grey
Recurve wrote:HurricaneEric wrote:New trend in the models is a tad bit more North of the islands which is great for them. Of course, that just means even more time for Irma to tap into those hot waters before that *likely* turn into S.Fla.![]()
Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?
Rely on local authorities, but just my two cents: No, not too late at all, if a hit on Miami is forecast, and you are in an unsafe structure, plan on going somewhere at any time, even a few hours before TS winds arrive. Traffic, gas supplies and hotels will be a problem. If you can leave late at night or very early morning you might avoid traffic. Plan to not go any farther than necessary to get out of surge/flood zone and into sturdy shelter. FIU is one choice, although it may fill up from Keys residents. For Andrew I took US 27 up to Highlands county to avoid the interstates, but people were having to go to Orlando or farther to find hotel rooms. In Wilma the turnpike was a nightmare for evacuation. If the current track holds, Miami will not get the full force, and you may be OK unless in a mobile home or low-lying area.
RL3AO wrote:Windfield appears quite a bit larger than NHC's last advisory.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
Recon shows 70 to 80 kt FL winds up to 80 nm from the center in the NE and NW quadrants.
eastcoastFL wrote:RL3AO wrote:Windfield appears quite a bit larger than NHC's last advisory.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
Recon shows 70 to 80 kt FL winds up to 80 nm from the center in the NE and NW quadrants.
Why do they still show 40miles for hurricane and 140 for TS winds?
Hurricaneman wrote:RL3AO wrote:Do the Hurricane Hunters have a secondary Caribbean location to fly out of if (when) St. Croix can't be flown out of.
Barbados I would think
Prof wrote:I'm getting really stressed about figuring out where to go. Will the roads be too crazy to drive on Thursday?
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