ATL: IRMA - Models

[bohaiboy]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/y3x525P.png

18z GEFS Ensembles.

If the black line is the mean then why do the GEFS loops show the center offshore of the West coast?

This is the 18Z os 4 SEPT The newest model is 00Z 5 Sept with dead aim over the eastern part. You didnt show the previous posters full post.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

This is true when you are 12-7 days out. We were far from in the bullseye back then also. But as we narrow in the scenario and with additional recon data, this models all agree on a major hurricane coming near the coast of FL. This isn't 2004 and models are not that bad anymore.

[northjaxpro]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

South FL is now in the cone. The "GFS hits us in 12 days so we'll be okay" doesn't really seem to apply here. I hope people don't wait until Wednesday to start preparing.

Amen RL3A0!!

[Blinhart]

Fresh off the press! 00z model guidance.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/y3x525P.png

18z GEFS Ensembles.

If the black line is the mean then why do the GEFS loops show the center offshore of the West coast?

This is the 18Z os 4 SEPT The newest model is 00Z 5 Sept with dead aim over the eastern part. You didnt show the previous posters full post.

Also if you would of read those are not good yet for the 00Z 5 Sept.

[Blinhart]

How can the 00Z models be out already when the 18Z is running right now????

They aren't really 0z model runs (well, I guess the statistical ones are). I wish people wouldn't post them and call them that, but that ship has long sailed.

This is what I'm talking about

[tolakram]

The 0Z model runs, GFS at 11:30pm, Euro at 1:14am, will have this data.



We've seen how models can change after upper air is sampled so this should be interesting.

[FireRat]

5-6 days does seem like a while out though. I remember Ike in 2008 completely missed Florida to the south and it did so a mere 2 days before it was supposed to strike. Wednesday would seem like the crucial day when we will know with more certainty where Irma will go. I would be amazed to see the models turn out right so far in advance, it sure would give tons of credence to the 5-day cone.

In most cases here however it does look like FL will get weather out of Irma. If she whacks the DR there could be a huge change in scenario too...will see if Irma does that by Wed. Gosh what a complex situation...like most FL threats.

[alienstorm]

00z Models shifted slightly more west

[pcolaman]

5-6 days does seem like a while out though. I remember Ike in 2008 completely missed Florida to the south and it did so a mere 2 days before it was supposed to strike. Wednesday would seem like the crucial day when we will know with more certainty where Irma will go. I would be amazed to see the models turn out right so far in advance, it sure would give tons of credence to the 5-day cone.


In most cases here however it does look like FL will get weather out of Irma. If she whacks the DR there could be a huge change in scenario too...will see if Irma does that by Wed. Gosh what a complex situation...like most FL threats.

If Irma interacts with land, won't we see her expand her wind field ?

[birddogsc]

The 0Z model runs, GFS at 11:30pm, Euro at 1:14am, will have this data.

We've seen how models can change after upper air is sampled so this should be interesting.

Absolutely... I've had folks from both my professional and personal life asking for my opinion on this thing, and my response across the board is to wait for the data from the flights today to feed into the models. I will not be surprised at all by a shift - possibly significantly - in the runs tonight.

However, if the models hold overnight and the data made it in, confidence all-around will go up for a CONUS landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

South FL is now in the cone. The "GFS hits us in 12 days so we'll be okay" doesn't really seem to apply here. I hope people don't wait until Wednesday to start preparing.

Everyone in sofla needs to.prepare, this system.is different, it will have a large windfield and intense, prepare for a major hit and hope we get off easy...i know we like to be in the crosshairs this far out but even 150 miles to the north and east will.have substantial weather..the modeling is more troubling than ever with it off the north cuban coast coming through the straits

[Alyono]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

South FL is now in the cone. The "GFS hits us in 12 days so we'll be okay" doesn't really seem to apply here. I hope people don't wait until Wednesday to start preparing.

the old timers are acting like it was 25 years ago when a 3 day forecast was unreliable. The reality today is that a 5 day forecast is about as reliable as a 36 hour forecast was then. Very unlikely to bomb completely with this synoptic setup less than 5 days. It takes a Joaquin to cause a total bust these days

[sma10]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

This is actually a bit of a truism. Some people think that when people shout, "hey im bullseyed at 5 days - I'm safe" are just whistling past the graveyard. But the truth is, look at the archived records of model performances. Show me a model that ever had a 5 day error of 0 miles. Dont get me wrong, im NOT saying that if you are in the cross hairs at 5 days you should ignore preparing for the storm. But the fact is you are extremely unlikely to get the core.

[jlauderdal]

5-6 days does seem like a while out though. I remember Ike in 2008 completely missed Florida to the south and it did so a mere 2 days before it was supposed to strike. Wednesday would seem like the crucial day when we will know with more certainty where Irma will go. I would be amazed to see the models turn out right so far in advance, it sure would give tons of credence to the 5-day cone.

In most cases here however it does look like FL will get weather out of Irma. If she whacks the DR there could be a huge change in scenario too...will see if Irma does that by Wed. Gosh what a complex situation...like most FL threats.

2008 was a long time ago..nhc track much much better..be ready for a 4 or 5 direct hit and hope we dont see it

[RL3AO]

I remember Ike in 2008 completely missed Florida to the south and it did so a mere 2 days before it was supposed to strike.

You sure about that?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Like the old saying goes when you're in the bulls eye this far out then more than likely you're okay. I would be more concerned if we are seeing the same thing on Wed. Too much can change before then. I still don't think the East coast or Gulf are even remotely out of the woods.

This is actually a bit of a truism. Some people think that when people shout, "hey im bullseyed at 5 days - I'm safe" are just whistling past the graveyard. But the truth is, look at the archived records of model performances. Show me a model that ever had a 5 day error of 0 miles. Dont get me wrong, im NOT saying that if you are in the cross hairs at 5 days you should ignore preparing for the storm. But the fact is you are extremely unlikely to get the core.

Extremely unlikely? I don't think so. It'll change slightly but this isn't 2003 where it'll shift to Texas or Maine. The models have performed just fine with this storm 5 days out with Irma still on track near the islands. Keep in mind that the data comes in with the 00z models. If they continue to show FL, it is time to prepare.

[bamajammer4eva]

If the black line is the mean then why do the GEFS loops show the center offshore of the West coast?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ziewFlo.png?1

This is the 18Z os 4 SEPT The newest model is 00Z 5 Sept with dead aim over the eastern part. You didnt show the previous posters full post.

Also if you would of read those are not good yet for the 00Z 5 Sept.

My question doesn't have anything to do with 00z since no important models have really been run yet for the 00z. I am only interested in the GEFS and Euro and my question concerns the GEFS.

[GlennOBX]

How can the 00Z models be out already when the 18Z is running right now????

They aren't really 0z model runs (well, I guess the statistical ones are). I wish people wouldn't post them and call them that, but that ship has long sailed.

A few weeks ago, and I don't remember when or on which model thread, one of the more experienced people on the board mentioned something to the effect that (names of models etc. that I can't remember) "take in numbers and solve the equation", and (other models, etc. that I can't remember the names of) do something else. Could someone explain that in a little more detail, and remind me which ones are which? Sorry for the lack of detail on my part.

[PTPatrick]

I feel like we play the wait for the recon of Gulf Stream data game on every storm...yet I struggle to think of an instance where it dramatically changed the projected path. Maybe there are some. But I wouldn't be surprised to see models condense a little more, but like, we already have pretty amazing consensus for 4 days and still have normal spread in the long range. It's stuff over Canada and Alaska and the northern pacific that will guide our turn right?

Can a pro met splain how the sample of the 1-3 day track atmosphere ahead of Irma, that's likely already being well modeled, is going dramatically change the path?

[RL3AO]

For the record, so far the 4 day error for the NHC forecasts with Irma is 125 miles. The 5 year average is 160 miles.