ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3301 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:If using Goes-16 might be even a little stronger

Image


That would be close to T7.0? Although there is probably a high bias in GOES-16.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3302 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:41 pm

ExBailbonds wrote:Hello S2k friends

Been tru a few storms including Andrew but this one is quite different and a bit more scary to me. If it takes a track up the spine it will make getting supplies in the southern end of the state where i am really difficult which is my biggest concern. With Andrew we could just drive north a couple of hours and restock fuel, food and essentials.


Hopefully Alligator Alley toward the west coast Naples/Ft. Myers wouldn't be as bad, but if the GFS happens Central Florida and Jacksonville would be strapped for supplies also.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3303 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:41 pm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 1:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 1:12:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°42'N 55°20'W (16.7N 55.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 378 statute miles (608 km) to the NE (49°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,606m (8,550ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 50° at 130kts (From the NE at ~ 149.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 135kts (~ 155.4mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) from the flight level center at 23:29:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 14kts (From the SE at 16mph)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3304 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:42 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3305 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:42 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 050136
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 29 20170905
012700 1617N 05458W 6967 03045 9936 +088 +070 220077 079 063 006 00
012730 1616N 05457W 6969 03053 9943 +089 +068 222075 077 062 008 00
012800 1615N 05456W 6968 03061 9950 +092 +071 223072 075 058 009 00
012830 1614N 05454W 6963 03076 9965 +091 +086 220066 069 054 010 03
012900 1613N 05453W 6965 03077 9993 +092 +092 219064 065 053 014 03
012930 1612N 05452W 6970 03077 9993 +091 +091 220062 065 055 011 00
013000 1610N 05451W 6971 03081 0007 +091 +091 219059 060 053 013 03
013030 1609N 05449W 6966 03090 9991 +090 +090 215060 061 053 009 03
013100 1608N 05448W 6962 03100 9988 +090 //// 214062 063 052 007 01
013130 1607N 05447W 6966 03099 0008 +089 +089 216062 064 049 007 00
013200 1606N 05446W 6965 03102 0018 +090 +090 220059 062 046 008 00
013230 1605N 05444W 6967 03105 0021 +085 +085 219057 059 046 006 00
013300 1603N 05443W 6968 03106 0030 +085 +085 215053 055 044 008 00
013330 1602N 05442W 6975 03101 0042 +083 +083 215053 057 042 011 00
013400 1601N 05441W 6963 03122 0043 +083 //// 208052 053 042 006 01
013430 1600N 05440W 6965 03119 //// +080 //// 204051 053 042 004 01
013500 1559N 05438W 6969 03118 0024 +084 +074 203052 052 040 004 00
013530 1558N 05437W 6969 03121 0027 +084 +070 205050 051 040 003 00
013600 1557N 05436W 6964 03127 0029 +085 +071 209049 050 040 004 00
013630 1556N 05435W 6968 03126 0032 +083 +076 208046 048 039 003 00
$$
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3306 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:If using Goes-16 might be even a little stronger

http://i68.tinypic.com/huoc3s.gif


That would be close to T7.0? Although there is probably a high bias in GOES-16.


Probably the resolution. Likely the eye temps gives a boost to GOES-16 but haven't really had a good test subject for recon with it yet to verify. Perhaps she will clear out some questions. T7.0 with current state is likely pushing it too much. T6.5 is more justifiable.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3307 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:43 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 050139
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 33 20170905
012930 1544N 05427W 7526 02510 0050 +135 +096 203043 044 029 002 00
013000 1545N 05429W 7524 02511 0046 +136 +097 205045 046 030 002 00
013030 1547N 05430W 7527 02506 0048 +132 +105 204047 047 031 002 00
013100 1548N 05432W 7528 02503 0049 +128 +117 206050 050 029 003 00
013130 1550N 05433W 7525 02503 0047 +128 +119 203041 043 030 004 00
013200 1551N 05435W 7523 02502 0040 +131 +120 203042 044 031 004 00
013230 1553N 05436W 7525 02500 0039 +131 +111 201045 045 030 006 00
013300 1554N 05438W 7520 02501 0039 +128 +107 201047 047 030 006 00
013330 1556N 05440W 7518 02501 0031 +131 +113 205051 051 032 004 00
013400 1557N 05441W 7514 02502 0026 +134 +100 203051 052 033 005 00
013430 1559N 05443W 7519 02494 0027 +129 +103 200052 052 034 007 00
013500 1601N 05444W 7507 02504 0022 +127 +120 206053 054 040 013 00
013530 1602N 05446W 7507 02500 0021 +124 +113 208055 056 039 007 00
013600 1604N 05447W 7500 02498 0015 +126 +106 210058 060 039 006 00
013630 1605N 05449W 7499 02496 0004 +130 +110 211061 061 041 005 00
013700 1607N 05450W 7508 02485 0002 +129 +105 210063 064 041 006 00
013730 1608N 05452W 7518 02466 9993 +132 +108 209065 066 040 008 00
013800 1610N 05453W 7523 02458 9984 +136 +111 209063 064 042 008 00
013830 1611N 05455W 7530 02435 9966 +141 +120 209064 071 046 022 00
013900 1613N 05457W 7521 02445 9964 +135 +135 216070 072 051 011 03
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3308 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:43 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Irma really is putting on quite a display tonight! What an impressive looking tropical cyclone!! She is about as classical a storm can appear on satellite!!

Could indeed attain Cat 5 status later tonight or early tomorrow..


And to think: Just 10 days or two weeks ago I was complaining that hurricanes didn't have really good looking structure to them anymore (that was before Harvey got its act together!). Later on, Harvey looked better, but this one.

It is quite awesome.

And fearsome (as I've said about Harvey before)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3309 Postby robbielyn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:43 pm

Taylormae wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Just becoming incredible.

Image


Is there a direct link for that image? I find it oddly beautiful.
Thank you for posting!

the neon colors are awesome!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#3310 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:45 pm

Still is west the movement.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3311 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:45 pm

storm4u wrote:My girlfriends dad is up from port st lucie florida... He is going back thursday... Hope its not bad for him :(


I think he needs to stay up there until next Thursday.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3312 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:46 pm

Michele B wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Ok... seen enough. I'm outta here.Going on an evacu-cation Any tips on securing house for the duration?


Button the place up. Board up, shutters -whatever - if you have them. Unplug appliances, like TV, etc. I'd only leave the fridge running (cause you're hoping it'll STAY on!). Take whatever food you can with you so as not to lose much to loss of power.

Pick up your yard, don't leave anything around that'll blow away into your neighbors' yards. They will not be amused!

CLEAN UP, especially do all your laundry. You don't know how long you'll be gone, and you DON"T want to come home to a pile of dirty laundry when you'll probably be bringing dirty laundry home with you.


Thanks for the advice... I'm a bachelor, so I think I'll pass on the laundry.. that pile is is a constant feature of the house.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3313 Postby Arsynic » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:46 pm

Charleston, SC sees you Irma. Publix and Costco getting cleaned out. We were ahead of the curve and stocked up on Friday. Went to Lowes yesterday and saw a few early birds buying generators.

All my years watching storms, these bad boys always curve to the NE at the last minute. Got burned by Floyd in '99 with that and Matthew boycotted FL last year with that move as well. So while FL is currently in the bullseye, we along the coast of SC are :double:

And whatever we get, NC gets sloppy seconds so the OB needs to be on notice as well.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3314 Postby ExBailbonds » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:47 pm

Michele B wrote:
ExBailbonds wrote:Hello S2k friends

Been tru a few storms including Andrew but this one is quite different and a bit more scary to me. If it takes a track up the spine it will make getting supplies in the southern end of the state where i am really difficult which is my biggest concern. With Andrew we could just drive north a couple of hours and restock fuel, food and essentials.


You make a good point.

So, the moral of the story is: plan for what you need to be self-sustaining for quite awhile. Is that what you're thinking?


Yep i am going to add to the existing stock pile for sure. i am pretty well prepared already but if it goes up the spine its going to be a really long recovery. Andrew was a buzz saw across the state this could be a buzz saw up thru the state scary stuff. Start your plans i am. I will be sheltering in place. " same house that structurally survived Andrew's eyewall "
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3315 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:47 pm

From the NW eyewall

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3316 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:48 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
ExBailbonds wrote:Hello S2k friends

Been tru a few storms including Andrew but this one is quite different and a bit more scary to me. If it takes a track up the spine it will make getting supplies in the southern end of the state where i am really difficult which is my biggest concern. With Andrew we could just drive north a couple of hours and restock fuel, food and essentials.


Hopefully Alligator Alley toward the west coast Naples/Ft. Myers wouldn't be as bad, but if the GFS happens Central Florida and Jacksonville would be strapped for supplies also.


Again, if you know "back roads" of the state, you could probably find gas off the beaten path.

For example, you know there's NO GAS STATIONS on the alley at all. However, if you got off on Snake Road and drove into the Seminole Indian Reservation, they have a gas station that will NOT be without gas! I know this. Don't ask me how I know, but I know this.

Snake Road is just before you drive out of Broward County on the alley westbound, btw.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3317 Postby ava_ati » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:48 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Irma really is putting on quite a display tonight! What an impressive looking tropical cyclone!! She is about as classical a storm can appear on satellite!!

Could indeed attain Cat 5 status later tonight or early tomorrow..


If it takes some of these spine tracks, how bad do you suppose it will be for us up here in NE FL? Think it will weaken enough? I'm figuring the worst track for our neck of the woods would be keeping it right off the coast with a westward shift into us. But I'm seeing these models showing a cat 2 even if it stays over land all the way up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3318 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:48 pm

I just can't believe how much Irma reminds me of Luis as it approaches the islands. They could be twins.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#3319 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:48 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 050146
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 30 20170905
013700 1556N 05435W 6968 03126 0036 +083 +071 210044 045 038 004 00
013730 1553N 05432W 6967 03129 0043 +082 +079 215042 044 038 003 03
013800 1552N 05431W 6968 03130 0061 +087 +087 215048 050 035 006 00
013830 1551N 05430W 6969 03132 //// +073 //// 211048 050 038 003 01
013900 1550N 05429W 6967 03136 //// +080 //// 210047 048 038 003 01
013930 1549N 05427W 6967 03138 //// +080 //// 206046 047 038 001 01
014000 1547N 05426W 6968 03138 0047 +083 +075 203044 045 039 002 00
014030 1546N 05425W 6967 03141 0043 +089 +063 200042 043 040 002 00
014100 1545N 05424W 6967 03144 0043 +092 +057 201041 042 041 001 00
014130 1544N 05423W 6967 03145 0042 +094 +057 201041 041 041 002 00
014200 1543N 05421W 6967 03146 0047 +090 +075 201041 042 041 002 00
014230 1542N 05420W 6969 03146 0053 +086 +072 204039 041 041 001 00
014300 1541N 05419W 6967 03150 0053 +087 +077 200038 039 040 002 00
014330 1539N 05418W 6963 03157 0053 +086 +081 200038 039 040 002 01
014400 1538N 05416W 6967 03153 0055 +089 +078 196041 042 042 006 00
014430 1537N 05415W 6971 03146 0081 +077 +077 201040 042 040 010 00
014500 1536N 05414W 6965 03158 0061 +085 +076 201040 040 041 005 00
014530 1535N 05413W 6966 03158 0056 +091 +078 192039 040 038 002 00
014600 1534N 05412W 6966 03157 0053 +091 +082 192038 039 038 001 00
014630 1533N 05411W 6967 03158 0051 +095 +078 195039 041 037 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3320 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:49 pm

Blinhart wrote:
storm4u wrote:My girlfriends dad is up from port st lucie florida... He is going back thursday... Hope its not bad for him :(


I think he needs to stay up there until next Thursday.


Yes, I agree.
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