ATL: IRMA - Models

[Frank P]

You're right Ken. It could. But so far, this sucks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=27

Ignore the position of Irma due to NAM South of 25N. It's hard to ask for a worse setup. I hope it's a fluke run.

Steve, that NAM run to looks like that trough will have little effect on Irma and the ridge setup makes it almost a certain hit on the US, with FL being in the tigers eyes

[birddogsc]

Do we know if the 0z NAM had the all the newer data collected today? And if so, do we see anything different yet from previous NAM runs?

Looking at the two runs, they appear to be very similar:

[drewschmaltz]

I was looking for an image and was unable to find it. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it. It was the 5 day cone for Hurricane Andrew in 1992 vs what would have been the cone today. The difference was drastic. IIRC, the 5 day cone in 1992 had Andrew hitting anywhere from Cuba to the Carolinas. The 5 day cone today
narrowed it from the Florida straits to central Fla. The science is definitely improving the performance of these models.

Unfortunately, you will never find this because it doesnt exist. The nhc did not release cones back then. They only released data points, similar to what you find in the discussion, and even then they only went out 3 days back then.

Andrew struck at 5am on 8/24/92. If you'd like to read the discussion from exactly 72 hrs prior to landfall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.018

Edit: I've reread your post and see what you might be asking for. A couple of years ago, the NHC reran Andrew synoptics with modern computing to see how they would perform. I believe though it was less than 72 hrs out though. The performance was much better than 92. I think the consensus from 48hr out was Palm Beach.

In addition to the actual advisory above, there is also the below which listed probabilities of the center passing within 65 miles of a given location. For the same 72 hour period, it looks like the highest odds were for it to strike in NC, although even those were only 5%.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/strike/lal0492.018

Also, note in the advisory that was posted the 72 hour intensity was 65 knots or a minimal hurricane.

I answered the request a few pages back. The end of this article has what is being talked about: http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-andr ... d=49389188

[tgenius]

I'm pretty tired from staying up last night for GFS but with the new data fed into the 00z run I'll stay up to watch and pray it shifts away.

They plugged Data in 18z too. That didnt go well for FL

But that data didn't have the G-IV data in it. That's the key data to possibly adjust the model run.

[Steve]

You're right Ken. It could. But so far, this sucks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=27

Ignore the position of Irma due to NAM South of 25N. It's hard to ask for a worse setup. I hope it's a fluke run.

Do we know if the 0z NAM had the all the newer data collected today? And if so, do we see anything different yet from previous NAM runs?

I don't know, but I asked at about the 18z ones that had the launches in mid-America and two pros said yeah, it's nearly real time. The GS IV sampling was to be in the 00z models, and these are 00z. I don't know if NAM is less complicated or why it comes out earlier. We'll see if the other models like what it shows on the continent. That's a trough leaving out at 3.5 days. GFS in about 30.

[birddogsc]

Looking back over the last 24 hours on the NAM... it's very similar. Of course, the NAM is not the go-to for this.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Sitting alone in the study-check
Fresh beer opened-check
Ready for the 0z GFS run-check

Let's get it on!

[Aric Dunn]

im sitting staring a loops and data.. watching star trek and looking up flights to florida

and having some wine ....

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

If the cane speeds up,anyone think the cold front may affect the track?.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/fx/ncep-progs.html

[sma10]

You're right Ken. It could. But so far, this sucks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=27

Ignore the position of Irma due to NAM South of 25N. It's hard to ask for a worse setup. I hope it's a fluke run.

Do we know if the 0z NAM had the all the newer data collected today? And if so, do we see anything different yet from previous NAM runs?

I don't know, but I asked at about the 18z ones that had the launches in mid-America and two pros said yeah, it's nearly real time. The GS IV sampling was to be in the 00z models, and these are 00z. I don't know if NAM is less complicated or why it comes out earlier. We'll see if the other models like what it shows on the continent. That's a trough leaving out at 3.5 days. GFS in about 30.

I did notice that if you compare the 78hr with the 84hr 12z, Irma does appear to be on the same basic NAM track, but slower. I hesitate to think if that is significant though because it is the NAM

I suppose it would mean more if the GFS comes out slower.

[Raebie]

Clearly you can see how in days of yore people used to say that "hurricanes have a mind of their own". Thats certainly how I'd feel today if the NHC were still predicting based on the Bams. We'd wonder why they could never get a single forecast even close!

'Days of yore'? I said that last night.

[sma10]

im sitting staring a loops and data.. watching star trek and looking up flights to florida

and having some wine ....

Holy cow, really??

[bamajammer4eva]

Looking back over the last 24 hours on the NAM... it's very similar. Of course, the NAM is not the go-to for this.

These are the runs since 06z this morning all valid 18z Thur and the trough in the East is weaker and not digging as deep each run

[WilmingtonSandbar]

im sitting staring a loops and data.. watching star trek and looking up flights to florida

and having some wine ....

I just got home from having some wine with the lady friend. She was "tired", and I knew they new run was getting ready to start, so home I went.

[Steve]

You're right Ken. It could. But so far, this sucks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=27

Ignore the position of Irma due to NAM South of 25N. It's hard to ask for a worse setup. I hope it's a fluke run.

Steve, that NAM run to looks like that trough will have little effect on Irma and the ridge setup makes it almost a certain hit on the US, with FL being in the tigers eyes

Yeah. I'm way too many Beams in, but that's exactly it. GFS is now 12 straight hits on the US. 00Z would be 13. I can't see any way out for Irma like I was saying around 5 o'clock. If it missed FL, it would come in west later anyway.

[jasons2k]

Ya'll let's keep this thread clean for the models - thanks.

[tolakram]

Ok. Am I missing something, or is the 0z GFS slow to get started tonight?

11:25-11:30ish

[Alyono]

This is bad. NAM out to 66 hours. Absent a miracle we could probably all use, the question is one or two landfalls? Seriously. There goes the trough which we knew was going to happen, but it's 6 hours later now. Odds are the US is probably going to get hit by a 4 or 5.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=527

yet the NAM shifted east

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, while we have a few minutes, what is the best setting to set the map for when looking for steering patterns on a model run. Basically, what dynamics setting will show the ridges, troughs, and lows the best? I know I am constantly questioning my settings, so I am pretty sure that some of the new people might have the same question.

[Alyono]

I'm pretty tired from staying up last night for GFS but with the new data fed into the 00z run I'll stay up to watch and pray it shifts away.

They plugged Data in 18z too. That didnt go well for FL

But that data didn't have the G-IV data in it. That's the key data to possibly adjust the model run.

Yes it did. About half the sondes go into the 18Z, half into the 0Z