ATL: IRMA - Models

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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6481 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 pm

I could be seeing things, but I think it looks like the ridge backs off, and the trough pulls Irma north at hour 96
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6482 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 pm

sma10 wrote:Wow, all the new data ingested and negligible track change thru 4 days so far


Yep thus far no good news..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6483 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 pm

Notice the new ridge building along the western Gulf coast? If that closes off, could this be heading into the Yucatan or into the western Gulf?

NVM, transient feature.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6484 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6485 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6486 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6487 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Looks WNW at h102
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6488 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
RL3AO wrote:A little south of 18z. A little west of 12z. A little north of 6z. Should pretty much go into S FL again.


A few eggs short of a dozen? :P


With no trough, I believe it flattens out more and more on a wnw heading longer ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6489 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:Wow, all the new data ingested and negligible track change thru 4 days so far


Yep thus far no good news..


After 96h starting to see a little more divergence, to the south
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6490 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.

previous run it shows up at 132 hours.. so should at 126 hours.. we will see.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6491 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6492 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I could be seeing things, but I think it looks like the ridge backs off, and the trough pulls Irma north at hour 96


NVM 102 changed that thought
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6493 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

The exact same
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6494 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I could be seeing things, but I think it looks like the ridge backs off, and the trough pulls Irma north at hour 96


You're seeing things
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6495 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6496 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

Well a tick (Almost a full Degree) SOUTH of 18z. That's probably not going to end well unless she buries herself in Cuba before the N turn that we all know is coming.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6497 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6498 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.


It's still there.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6499 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:02 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6500 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

The shortwave is passing through the Missouri Valley.
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