ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6481 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:57 pm

RL3AO wrote:A little south of 18z. A little west of 12z. A little north of 6z. Should pretty much go into S FL again.


A few eggs short of a dozen? :P
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
WilmingtonSandbar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 505
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Southport, NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6482 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 pm

I could be seeing things, but I think it looks like the ridge backs off, and the trough pulls Irma north at hour 96
0 likes   
Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6483 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 pm

sma10 wrote:Wow, all the new data ingested and negligible track change thru 4 days so far


Yep thus far no good news..
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6484 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 pm

Notice the new ridge building along the western Gulf coast? If that closes off, could this be heading into the Yucatan or into the western Gulf?

NVM, transient feature.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3900
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6485 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6486 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6487 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2772
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6488 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

Looks WNW at h102
0 likes   
Top
pcolaman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:33 am
Location: Pensacola Fla

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6489 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:59 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
RL3AO wrote:A little south of 18z. A little west of 12z. A little north of 6z. Should pretty much go into S FL again.


A few eggs short of a dozen? :P


With no trough, I believe it flattens out more and more on a wnw heading longer ?
0 likes   
Top
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6490 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:Wow, all the new data ingested and negligible track change thru 4 days so far


Yep thus far no good news..


After 96h starting to see a little more divergence, to the south
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6491 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.

previous run it shows up at 132 hours.. so should at 126 hours.. we will see.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6492 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
WilmingtonSandbar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 505
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Southport, NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6493 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:00 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I could be seeing things, but I think it looks like the ridge backs off, and the trough pulls Irma north at hour 96


NVM 102 changed that thought
0 likes   
Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6494 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

The exact same
Image
0 likes   
Top
bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6495 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I could be seeing things, but I think it looks like the ridge backs off, and the trough pulls Irma north at hour 96


You're seeing things
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3900
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6496 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6497 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

Well a tick (Almost a full Degree) SOUTH of 18z. That's probably not going to end well unless she buries herself in Cuba before the N turn that we all know is coming.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6498 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6499 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.


It's still there.

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:
Contact wxmann_91

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6500 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:02 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests